http://www.telegraphindia.com/1050303/asp/opinion/story_4442112.asp TOO MANY KINGMAKERS SPOIL THE KINGDOM The results in Bihar do not reflect any �groundswell� of anger against Laloo Yadav. In fact, the fractured mandate could ultimately favour the RJD chief, writes Sumanta Sen The campaigning for the Bihar elections had seen Arun Jaitley repeatedly insisting that there was a �groundswell� of anger against the Rashtriya Janata Dal government in the state. The results, however, do not reflect any such anger. If people were really so angry, then Laloo Prasad Yadav�s RJD would not have been able to emerge as the single largest party. His alliance may have come second to the National Democratic Alliance, but it has to be recognized that he did not have much of an alliance, the left being only a fringe player in Bihar politics. It was actually Laloo Yadav versus the rest in Bihar, and he can certainly claim that though scarred, he has not been defeated. Neither was the anger that Jaitley spoke about reflected in the turnouts on the three polling days. The percentage of votes polled was around fifty, much less than on previous occasions. An angry people determined to teach the incumbent a lesson would surely have come out of their homes in much larger numbers, but they did not. And there are no reports that they had been forced to remain indoors by Laloo Yadav�s musclemen. Whey then did Laloo Yadav end up with less than 80 seats? A quick glance at the results suggests it was due more to arithmetic than anything else. The Congress and the Lok Janshakti Party nibbled away bits of his vote share among the Yadavs and Muslims, and that was enough in a scenario of a low-voter turnout. In about two dozen constituencies, the RJD lost by margins of around two thousand. Such close affairs also do not indicate any �groundswell� of anger. It appears that Laloo had missed out not so much on the ground of popular support as on tactics. The RJD, like most parties in Bihar, is not cadre-based, it runs on the desires of its leader. And the leader seems to have chosen quite a few candidates ignoring local aspirations and conditions. That obviously hurt him. Reports suggest that his brothers-in-law had played a big role in influencing him on the choice of candidates. But since quite a few of the independents may belong to this category of frustrated dissidents, he may not have much of a problem bridging the gap with them in the next few days. Not just them; the 30-odd LJP men who won are all technically independents, as they did not contest on recognized symbols. So why won�t Laloo Yadav go shopping there too, particularly eyeing the Yadavs and Muslims? Such things have always happened in Bihar and elsewhere in the Hindi belt. In Uttar Pradesh, Mulayam Singh Yadav would not have been in office if he had not shopped in a similar manner. That, of course, is for the future. For the present, it can be pertinently asked: how could the RJD manage to remain the single largest party even after 15 years of non-administration? Why did Raghopur re-elect Rabri Devi even though she had not visited it for five years, nor attempt any governance through remote control? The only explanation can be caste considerations. Even as they suffered, the Yadavs and most backward castes hung on to the caste loyalty which dominates the Bihari psyche. And then there are the minorities. Muslims by and large continue to put survival before development when it comes to making a choice. It was not for nothing that the RJD had used the Gujarat cassettes or Ram Vilas got an Osama bin Laden lookalike to accompany him on his campaign, to establish his credentials. The Congress boat, on the other hand, floundered on the caste rock. It was generally believed, and also by Laloo Yadav, that Sonia Gandhi would be able to win back for the Congress its upper-caste support base, which it had lost because of its ambivalence on the Mandal issue. The results show that this has not happened, the upper castes have not turned away from the Bharatiya Janata Party. This lesson must be put to use when the Congress shifts its attention to UP. Of course there is also the question about what prompted the Bihar state Congress to even think that they could contest 100 seats when the party has failed to retain even the dozen it won five years ago. Then there is Ram Vilas basking in the role of kingmaker. He should realize that he remains only a marginal player in the scene complicated by all kinds of caste equations � way behind Laloo Yadav and Nitish Kumar. It is not a new thing for such a player to hold the trump card in the numbers game, but that does not automatically open up new vistas in the days to come. However big Paswan�s dreams may be, the results show that his future lies in a tie-up either with the NDA or with the United Progressive Alliance. Preferably the latter, as otherwise he would lose the plum job of a Central minister. Paswan should also know that a Dalit-Muslim alliance can never be sustained without props. Mayavati�s props in UP were first Mulayam and then the BJP. In Bihar, a not-so-charismatic man like Paswan will also not be able to remain �neutral� for too long. Perhaps he knows that only too well. The only parties that should feel happy are the Janata Dal (United) and the BJP. True, they have not been able to make a Chautala of Laloo Yadav, but they have made a good comeback after the Lok Sabha polls. They may not form the government, but it is no less important to present a cohesive opposition to a shaky ruling alliance and wait for the day when the already cracked UPA crumbles.
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