http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/devangshu-dattasearch-continues/360207/

Devangshu Datta: The search continues

Devangshu Datta / New Delhi June 6, 2009, 0:12 IST

As societies advance, they generate more information. They become more
dependent on an ability to store, index and retrieve that information.
The task of searching becomes far too important to be left to humans
with their wetware biases and frailties.
In pre-literate societies, priests were the sole repositories of
knowledge. For millennia after writing was invented, priests doubled
as librarians. Melvil Dewey developed his Decimal System only in the
1870s.
In the digital age, the art of searching has become an entirely
separate domain of knowledge. It is only in the past 15 years that
search has become location-independent. It is the biggest entirely new
business opportunity spawned by the Web.
The Web has rendered all previous marketing and service delivery
channels obsolete. The 21st century avatars of gambling, gaming and
pornography (GGP), for instance, are utterly Web-driven. .
But GGP existed before the web-enabled mutation and exponential growth.
Search as an industry was inconceivable in the pre-Net era. Yet, just
12 years after its first search engine launch, Google earned 2008
revenues of $22 billion. All that lolly came directly from its ability
to efficiently conduct searches and present search results in
convenient formats.
Search engines generate revenue by selling targeted advertising. A
search engine creates good search and indexing algorithms and builds
an interface that makes it easy to find information. Ad-revenues are
based on viewership, click-throughs and conversion rates.
Many papers have been written about this value-chain. Subsidiary
industries such as search engine optimisation (SEO) and
adword-analysis (AA) are derivatives. SEOs tweak websites to improve
search visibility. AA determines “fair pricing” of key words and helps
advertisers determine which words to bid for, in sponsored search
results.
It’s difficult to get a handle on the global market. According to
Statcounter, about 90 per cent of searches are conducted on Google
with Yahoo running a very distant second with less than 6 per cent.
The revenue split could be different but it is overwhelmingly
dominated by Google.
In the US, which is still the biggest Net market, Google owns close to
65 per cent of market share according to ComScore. Yahoo generates
around 20 per cent of search revenue and MSN around 8 per cent.
The market is liable to continue growing fast. Global broadband
penetration is a very long way from saturation and mobile search
penetration is multiplying. Search in many major languages is still in
its infancy.
In the past month, Google’s supremacy has been challenged by two
formidable new launches. Steven Wolfram has adapted his elegant
Mathematica, to provide a “decision engine”. Mathematica has the
ability to calculate indefinite integrals, for instance, and it’s
close to indispensable in academia and engineering colleges.
Wolfram Alpha offers definite answers to questions rather than pages
of search results. For example, Wolfram Alpha’s response to “How many
miles does a man have to walk before you can call him a man?” is “The
answer is blowing in the wind according to Bob Dylan”.
The other new player is Bing, a new SE from Microsoft. Bing is a
conventional search engine and the successor to Live. It supposedly
has an algorithm that will help win better ad-revenue share. Early
days yet and Google has responded with Google Squared, which offers a
more interesting way to organise searches.
This may be a new inflection point. Wolfram Alpha and Google Squared
are demonstrably different ways to search for digital information.
SEOs and AAs will now have to second-guess new algorithms. The
competition between search engine providers can only be beneficial to
users and sometime in the not too distant future, they may completely
supersede priests and librarians.


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