Japan's rising star driven by nationalism
Hawkish politician has made a career out of bashing North Korea

By Geoffrey York in Tokyo
The Globe and Mail (Canada) | 17 March 2005
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/200503
17/JAPAN17/TPInternational/Asia


When Japan tightened the screws on North Korea by choking one of its 
economic lifelines this month, it marked another victory for a 
charismatic politician whose hawkish stand has made him Japan's most 
popular leader.

Shinzo Abe, a senior member of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, 
has emerged as one of the front-runners to become Japan's next prime 
minister.

And the key to his success is his relentless campaign of sharp words 
and tough actions against North Korea, the rogue state that is 
widely seen as the biggest threat to Japan's security. Mr. Abe, the 
grandson of a former prime minister, is a youthful and telegenic 
populist who has made his career by bashing North Korea at every 
opportunity.

His rise to prominence is a sign of the nationalist mood that is 
gaining stronger influence in Japanese politics as the country 
becomes increasingly disenchanted with the pacifism of the past 60 
years.

"Japan used to just repeat world peace like a Buddhist chant," he 
once said. "Now we have to think about how best to pursue the 
national interest."

For years, North Korea has depended on the Japanese market for its 
seafood and other exports. But this month, Tokyo banned most of 
North Korea's ships from Japanese waters, dealing a blow to its 
neighbour's weakened economy.

Officially, the ban is not aimed specifically at North Korea. But 
the new law, which prohibits ships weighing more than 100 tonnes 
from entering Japan unless they meet strict insurance requirements, 
is having a much heavier impact on North Korea than on any other 
country. And politicians have privately acknowledged that it is a 
form of economic sanctions, targeted directly at North Korea.

The ban is the latest tactic aimed at punishing Pyongyang for its 
failure to give a full explanation of the fate of a dozen Japanese 
who were kidnapped by North Korean spies in the 1970s. 

In earlier moves, Japan slashed its foreign aid and cut off an 
estimated $38-million (U.S.) in remittances sent back home by North 
Koreans who are living in Japan.

In some ways, Tokyo's actions are more hawkish than anything 
proposed by the United States. Despite the U.S. accusation that 
North Korea is one of the countries that make up the "axis of evil," 
Washington has asked Japan to refrain from imposing an embargo. But 
the mood in Japan is increasingly hostile to Pyongyang, and the hard-
line rhetoric of Mr. Abe is one of the biggest reasons.

At 50 he is still remarkably young by the standards of Japanese 
politics, where key posts are usually held by much older 
politicians. But he has already served as secretary-general of the 
ruling party, and polls have consistently found him the most popular 
politician in the country.

He has helped Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi wrest control of 
foreign policy from the bureaucrats who previously set the country's 
foreign-policy tone. Together, the two politicians have given them a 
more populist and nationalist tilt.

When five of the abducted Japanese citizens were allowed to make 
temporary visits to Japan in 2002, it was Mr. Abe who fuelled it as 
a political issue, insisting that the five would remain in Japan 
despite an official promise to return them to North Korea. 

The episode made him a hero for many people in Japan.

"On the North Korea issue, Abe has been hugely influential," said 
Jiro Yamaguchi, a political scientist at Hokkaido University in 
Japan. "He's a kind of jingoistic politician. He gains his 
popularity by attacking North Korea."

But his hawkish views have gone beyond the reclusive Communist state.

He once suggested that Tokyo could develop small nuclear devices 
without violating its constitution, an idea that was long considered 
taboo in Japanese politics.

He also reportedly put pressure on Japan's public broadcaster, NHK, 
to tone down a documentary about the sexual enslavement of thousands 
of Asian women by the Japanese army during the Second World War. As 
a result, testimony from the former sex slaves was deleted from the 
documentary.

Despite these controversies, Mr. Koizumi seems to be grooming Mr. 
Abe as his successor. After being plucked from the lower ranks of 
the ruling LDP to become the deputy cabinet secretary, he was 
promoted to LDP secretary-general and unofficial campaign manager 
for Mr. Koizumi's successful re-election bid in 2003.

Certainly, he has the skills to thrive in Japan's new political 
climate, where the most popular leaders are outspoken new-generation 
reformers and nationalists who communicate well on television.

He is tall and charismatic, noted for his stylish suits and his 
blunt manner of speaking, in sharp contrast to the cautious tone of 
most Japanese politicians. He studied politics at the University of 
Southern California, which may have influenced his style.

"He speaks his mind very clearly," said Toshiyuki Shikata, a retired 
military general who is now a university professor in Tokyo. "Most 
LDP politicians, you can't understand them."

Another key to his popularity is his image as a blue-blood prince of 
a famed Japanese political family. His grandfather, Nobosuke Kishi, 
was a prime minister in the early 1960s. His father, Shintaro Abe, 
was a foreign minister who was on the verge of becoming prime 
minister when he died in 1990. As the scion of this family, Mr. Abe 
enjoys the kind of mystique that surrounds the Kennedy family in the 
United States.

While his family connections have helped, Mr. Abe's biggest strength 
is his sense of the political mood. Some analysts worry that the new 
populists, led by Mr. Abe, could give Japan a narrower outlook on 
the world.

"It could be very dangerous," said Katsuhiko Mori, a professor of 
international relations at International Christian University in 
Tokyo. "They are not really debating policy; they are just supported 
by nationalist sentiment."









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