Superpowers in collision By Jeremy Carl Delhi Hardnews http://www.hardnewsmedia.com/june05/cstory4.php
While India and China are making the US sit up and take notice, it is China that has the edge, and the future could be highly competitive While American foreign policy remains focused on Iraq in the short term, those taking a longer-term view certainly understand that we are entering the Asian Century, 100 Years that will likely be led by China and India. The US Central Intelligence Agency's (CIA) recent "2020 project", issued by the National Intelligence Council, says that China and India will be "new major global players" that will "transform the geopolitical landscape". Even before this document was issued, US policymakers were certainly aware that China was a rising power. Will India be able to join the great power club as well? The CIA report is as good a synthesis as exists on current US strategic thinking on China and India. And it emphasises the key point in determining the geopolitical role that China and India will play over the coming decades: "Their standard of living need not approach Western levels for these countries to become important economic powers." In America's eyes, China and India are already at the cusp of becoming "undeserving superpowers" � that is, due to their tremendous population, they can become superpowers on the global scale without necessarily building a fully modern and prosperous state that respects the lives and rights of their citizens. This situation without precedent in modern international relations is the fundamental fact that will govern US views of China and India in the years ahead. It is in US' national interest to have China and India become deserving superpowers � that is, to become superpowers based not just on their population but on their ability to be effective, functional, and prosperous democracies that will be good global citizens. Over the last half century, Americans have not generally taken a positive view of the Indian and Chinese states. India was held at arms length during the Nehru years, and India's official non- alignment (with a sympathetic tilt towards the Soviet Union) caused much bitterness in Washington and hampered the construction of meaningful Indo-US relationship. Meanwhile, in American eyes, China was the "Red Menace" with the US staunchly backing Chiang-Kai-shek's nationalist regime long after it had fled into exile in Taiwan. Of course Mao Zedong's xenophobic policies and economic disasters such as The Great Leap Forward, where 30 million Chinese starved to death, did not make a rapprochement easy. In the late 1970s, Deng Xiaoping brought China out of the shadows and began its ascent into superpower status. Will Manmohan Singh, who as finance minister ushered in India's reforms, be able to do the same? A couple of decades ago, the average American thought of India as a land of poverty, overpopulation, and filth � an exotic yet somewhat benighted land of the Taj Mahal, elephants, snakecharmers, and Mother Teresa. While these old attitudes (and a measure of the underlying reality) still remain, happily, however, American attitudes toward India are rapidly changing. The opening of the Indian economy in 1991, and the resultant IT-led growth, has rapidly changed India's image in many American's eyes. Greater familiarity with Indian culture also erased simplistic earlier impressions. The number of Indian Americans doubled between 1990 and 2000 and quadrupled between 1980 and 2000. Indian�Americans are now America's wealthiest ethnic group. This greater familiarity has done much to push away the older image, especially in the eyes of a younger generation, who have grown up knowing Indians and Indian Americans and seeing Indian success stories. Increased tourism to India has also brought a greater familiarity with the country. The beginnings of non-resident Indian (NRI) political power, particularly with the emergence of rising stars such as US Congressman Piyush "Bobby" Jindal in Louisiana, will see the community taking on an ever-more-prominent role. On the other hand, many American policymakers still see India as prone to "punching above its weight", making pronouncements and attempting to influence global affairs beyond all bounds of its current economic or military power. While this bombastic tendency has diminished somewhat since the Nehru years, it is still, in US eyes, very much a feature of Indian statecraft. US policymakers who have spent time in India are well aware of how desperately poor and backward much of India still is � although this fact is seemingly lost on many India's elites. While China has made great progress on poverty, India has been much slower to improve in this regard. It is difficult to take moral pronouncements on global politics too seriously from a country that does such a poor job of providing even rudimentary food and housing for so many of its citizens. If India wants to become a major player on the global stage, it first has to put its own house in order. India's "stifling bureaucracy" (in the words of the CIA report) is probably the largest barrier between the country achieving great power status in reality and in the eyes of Americans. A recent national survey showed that while young Chinese dreamed of being entrepreneurs, the civil service was still the dream job for most young Indians. While the government certainly needs talented people, this survey indicates a continued statist mentality in India that seems certain to hamper its emergence as a dynamic nation. Other risks that could jeopardise India's climb to great power status include renewed hostilities with Pakistan, a continued unwillingness to combat corruption, or the renewal of sectarian violence such as was witnessed in Gujarat in 2002. If India's policies must still improve if it is to become a global power, the timing of its emergence is, at least, impeccable. India has emerged at a time when US policymakers are particularly eager to reach out to a new power in Asia that can counteract the growing influence of China. Furthermore, India has a large and relatively well-integrated Muslim population to which the US is very interested in building a bridge in the wake of 9/11. "Hindi Chini, Bhai Bhai" rhetoric aside, it would seem to be in both India's and America's interests to check China's influence. While the US does not want to see Indian regional dominance of Asia, the reality is that economically China is 15 years ahead of India, and that its lead is growing and not shrinking, so Indian regional dominance is not seen as likely by American policymakers. With India checking China's influence, China may be more concerned about its own neighbourhood than causing trouble for the US. This increasing commonality of interests will draw India into a closer alliance with the US. Militarily speaking, America also has a greater comfort with India than it does with China. India is also not historically as expansionist and imperialist a power as China, which, even now, is essentially an occupying power on approximately 60 per cent of its landmass (with only 40 per cent or so really constituting China's historic core). China shows a very strong nationalist and xenophobic streak that is well beyond anything to be found in India, outside of groups such as the Rightwing Rashtriya Sevak Sangh (RSS). India's ability to reach into Central Asia is also of great interest to American policymakers. Given the strategic importance of this region, driven by its abundance of natural resources, if India is able to exert a stabilising, pro-Western orientation there, Americans will view the actions most favourably. It also helps that India is the world's largest democracy, even if that may be cold comfort to many watching China's dictatorship race ahead. ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> In low income neighborhoods, 84% do not own computers. At Network for Good, help bridge the Digital Divide! http://us.click.yahoo.com/S.QlOD/3MnJAA/Zx0JAA/uTGrlB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> -- This is ZESTGlobal. 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