Thinking about life after Mugabe?
BY STAN MUKASA The Zimbabwean | Date not given http://www.thezimbabwean.co.uk/2-september-2005/letter-from-america.html WASHINGTON - To all intents and purposes Zimbabwe is now a classic case of a failed state. Mugabe and Zanu (PF) have lost control of the economy as Zimbabwe continues its dramatic collapse. Zimbabwe has been decaying for many years. It suffered an accelerated meltdown in the last five years. It is hard to imagine that just eight years ago US$1 was about ZW$10. Today that exchange rate is about ZW$40,000 to US$1 on the parallel market. To make matters worse, Mugabe has rejected all efforts to resolve the political problems that are the cause of the failed state. He simplistically sees the economic problems as attempts by the international community to sabotage Zimbabwe's independence. In the midst of this humanitarian crisis created by bad governance Mugabe and his cronies, the CIO, the military and the police are now on the island of prosperity they have created for themselves surrounded by millions of Zimbabweans who have been reduced to Stone Age scavenging. But even in his affluent position Mugabe and his cronies represent what the founder of the Italian Communist Party, Antonio Gramsci, once called an organic crisis. This is the essence of a failed state that feels insecure because it is being threatened from all sides. Mugabe and his cronies are in a state of conjuncture which means they are in their affluent positions but are surrounded by formidable humanitarian crises that could be their undoing. The fact that Mugabe has stubbornly rejected all mediation efforts to resolve the problems shows that Mugabe is aware but has now closed his eyes to the crisis in Zimbabwe. What he sees in his fantasy is the tremendous wealth he and his cronies have amassed - like the legendary Lotos eaters in Greek mythology who were hallucinated into the inner worlds of their own and became completely oblivious of what was going on around them. Some people have argued that the so called `progressive era' for post -colonial Zimbabwe, that is, the period between 1980 and mid 1990s, was based more on the fact that Mugabe inherited in 1980 a well -developed economic infrastructure from the Ian Smith regime. During this period there was no deliberate government policy for a sustained and systematic investment in the country's productive sectors. What Zimbabwe has been experiencing since the end of the1990s have been the results of a lack of sound capital investment policy in the country. Former Minister of Finance, Bernard Chidzero, once complained that the Mugabe regime was too much consumer oriented than producer advocates. More money was being spent on unproductive ventures at the expense of the wealth- creating sectors. Be that as it may, these productive sectors were able to sustain the country's economic growth at a rate of five percent. Zimbabweans are now feeling the adverse impact of Mugabe's bad governance which is downright criminal, considering the fact that he has desecrated the Constitution, deprived people of their civil liberties and has unleashed his militia gangs to kill, rape, torture and abduct opposition supporters. While the absence of mass protest so far has given Mugabe a false sense that he will survive indefinitely, he is quickly reminded that he has been pinned to the corner largely by deteriorating economic forces that are beyond his control. He knows he cannot send the army, the CIO, police or militia thugs to effectively control the economy in the way he has used these institutions to control people. To add to his woes, there are growing reports of internal agitation within the party. Contradictions, or conflicting interests, are a common characteristic of many states and institutions. The stability of the state lies in its ability to manage and keep these contradictions under control. There are unconfirmed rumors that Solomon Mujuru, or his representative, may have sought to strike a deal with MDC leader, Morgan Tsvangirayi, recently. MDC immediately denied that such a meeting had taken place. About three years ago, a similar attempt involving a retired general Lionel Dyke, acting on behalf of presumably Emmerson Mnangagwa, then speaker of Parliament, was aborted after Tsvangirayi made public all the negotiations. It is understandable that MDC would this time vehemently deny any meeting with Mujuru, whose on-and-off wife is being groomed to be Mugabe's successor. Could it be that Mujuru is brokering an agreement between MDC and a regime that will be led by Joyce Mujuru? It is possible that within Zanu (PF) there are some factions who are now beginning to think of life after Mugabe. There could well be some realism among these individuals that there can never be a solution to Zimbabwe's problems until the root cause of all these problems has been addressed and resolved, namely bad governance. The nouveau riche need consumer markets and investments for their newly-acquired businesses. Some of the factions that are in clandestine contacts with MDC are probably willing to give up political power in exchange for their being allowed to keep their stolen loot in form of businesses. It may not been a stretch of imagination that they could well be prepared to support and accept a government led by an opposition group like the MDC. It happened in apartheid South Africa. The white Afrikaner business sector, which was also desperate for consumer markets and investments in the aftermath of recession-hit South Africa, was probably behind the ending of apartheid the way it dramatically collapsed in mid 1990s, paving way for Black rule in South Africa. - Letter from America with Professor Stanford Mukasa is broadcast on SW Radio Africa on Mondays on the internet www.swradioafrica.com and on medium wave on Tuesdays between 5 and 7 am on 1197khz ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Life without art & music? Keep the arts alive today at Network for Good! http://us.click.yahoo.com/FXrMlA/dnQLAA/Zx0JAA/uTGrlB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> -- This is ZESTGlobal. Post articles on international affairs to [email protected] If you got this mail as a forward, subscribe to ZESTGlobal by sending a blank mail to [EMAIL PROTECTED] OR, if you have a Yahoo! 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