Iran-Pakistan-India By M B Naqvi, Deccan Herald, March 17, 2006 New Delhi and Islamabad should consider their national interests and pursue the proposed oil pipeline project with Iran
A Pakistani mission was recently in Turkmenistan negotiating on a pipeline from there through Afghanistan to Pakistan's Gwadar port in addition to the much talked about tripartite Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline project. To be sure, Islamabad remains committed to the IPI project. Even a third underwater pipeline from Qatar is often mentioned as an option. Technically Tehran, Islamabad and New Delhi remain committed to the IPI project. How firm is the commitment is now being widely discussed among commentators and security experts. The truth is that there are widespread doubts whether the IPI project would ever fructify. The reason is the unrelenting US opposition; Washington is dead set against any large-scale project that can make life easier for Iran. As it happens, the governments in both India and Pakistan happen to value the friendship of Americans above everything else. In the case of Pakistan, dependence on American support is crucial; there is simply no question that Pakistan can actually deviate from the line that the Americans decide to lay down. Insofar as India is concerned, despite the political dependence of the government on Leftist support, the Indian Prime Minister was able to say things that prompted serious doubts on this project as early as July 2005, soon after he had signed an agreement with President George Bush about the civilian nuclear reactors. The Indian government has been twisting and turning ever since. Manishankar Aiyar, the previous Petroleum Minister, too seemed for a time uncertain in July though he later emerged as a determined supporter of the IPI project who often declared that IPI pipeline would be built and further, India is committed to it. That commitment has been formally reiterated by the Indian PM and the new Petroleum Minister. But who can erase the impression that Manishankar was shunted out of Petroleum Ministry because of this enthusiastic support for importing Iranian gas. This stance had made Manishankar unpopular with the Americans. The firmness of the Indian commitment to IPI for sometime needed to be taken with a pinch of salt. Policy making Much the same applies to Pakistan in general terms. But policy- making in Islamabad seeks guidance from General Pervez Musharraf and or from the military establishment's preferences. The military has been formulating Pakistan's foreign policy-making for many decades. Among its aims has been to run an arms race with India in all relevant fields. The US has finally jilted them and adopted India as a major strategic partner by virtually recognizing India as an accepted nuclear power and has promised to sell it civilian-use atomic reactors. Pakistan military, it is claimed by some experts, is trying to play the China card: Pakistan will buy more civilian reactors from China. The cold war itch to do what the rival (India) is doing is on display. The fact of the matter is that both India and Pakistan are facing a situation where they do not know which way to take. On one side is America's dogged opposition to the IPI project. Insofar as Pakistan's talking points about Turkmenistan-Afghanistan and Pakistan pipeline or Qatar-Pakistan undersea pipeline is warmly welcomed by the Americans, although the feasibility and the cost effectiveness of these two projects are far from being clear, as IPIs are. Indians are also faced with the same dilemma. Their national interest demands that the IPI project be implemented. Their desire for friendship with America demands giving up this project. New Delhi could have found an ostensible way out of this formal commitment because it values civilian nuclear reactors and fuel as a higher priority than cheaper and more secure fuel. The Leftist pressure on South Block forced the Americans to exempt Breeder reactors and to go soft on the IPI. Going with Americans and becoming recognized as a great military and political power, albeit with American help, is said to be very attractive, perhaps for some worth overriding the vital interest in having secure and affordable prices of energy. The US has gone some way to enable the UPA government have atomic reactors and also retain Left support. Insofar as Pakistan is concerned, it has spoken with two voices. The President is firm on the IPI though he indicated in Davos that should American opposition remain relentless, Pakistan would have to adjust itself in some way, though he affirmed the commitment to the IPI. The Prime Minister is known to have given some sort of assurances in Washington that American wishes will not be overridden. A certain small group in the commentariate believes that even the present insufficient détente that has been achieved between Pakistan and India should enable the two governments to be bolder and to take a firmer stand on the IPI despite the US. Can they assert the primacy of their national interest in secure and affordable energy supplies? Pleasing America can be left to less vital projects. But whether this détente is adequate to resist the kind of pressures that the Americans may build is difficult to say. Can the two ruling elites take such a momentous decision? -- This is ZESTGlobal. Post articles on international affairs to [email protected] If you got this mail as a forward, subscribe to ZESTGlobal by sending a blank mail to [EMAIL PROTECTED] OR, if you have a Yahoo! ID, by visiting http://groups.yahoo.com/group/ZESTGlobal/join/ Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/ZESTGlobal/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
