Peruvian election signals move to moderate left in region John Galante | Foreign Policy Association | June 15, 2006
http://www.fpa.org/topics_info2414/topics_info_show.htm?doc_id=377310 The result is a victory for the moderate left, rather than anti- capitalist and anti-U.S. hardliners, during an election-heavy year in Latin America that some see as a contest between Chávez and the Bush administration. García, Peru's president from 1985 to 1990, has voiced his intentions to administer a second term from the center-left, similar to counterparts in Chile, Brazil and Argentina, where leaders hope to couple liberal economics and progressive social policies. His opponent, Ollanta Humala, meanwhile, has laid harsh criticisms on Peru's economic openness and the influence of foreign capital. As a result, the former military commander received strong support from Chávez during the campaign. The loss is unlikely to quiet the Venezuelan president's opposition to the Bush administration, but prevents an ally from assuming the top position of another Andean nation. The December 2005 election of the Chávez-inspired radical nationalist Evo Morales to the Bolivian presidency (following protests that led to the ouster of his two predecessors) struck a chord in Washington and the American press, leaving many wondering if it signaled a trend in populist and anti-U.S. candidates winning subsequent elections across Latin America in 2006, when at least eight nations will choose their leaders. Chávez, a vocal supporter of Morales, was aglow at the fourth EU- Latin America Summit in May, courting newly elected Socialist President Michelle Bachelet of Chile and other members of a community of left-of-center leaders in Latin America; Brazil's Luis Inácio Lula da Silva and Argentina's Néstor Kirchner among them. Meanwhile, the announcement this spring that Morales will take steps towards the nationalization of Bolivia's natural gas and energy sector not to mention his use of anti-capitalist rhetoric both before and after his victory heightened worries of a "pink tide" sweeping across the hemisphere. Peruvian candidate Humala was next in line. Much like Chávez, Humala is a former military man who previously led an unsuccessful coup attempt against the government. He often condemns the U.S., liberal economics and the international business community. For his efforts, he received much verbal (and perhaps financial) support from Chávez and earned the most votes in a first round of elections in April on a platform that included writing a new constitution and redistributing wealth to the poor majority. During the run-off election campaign (necessary when no candidate received 50% of the total in the first round), Alan García, who's first presidency was marked by economic decline and rising inflation, corruption and guerrilla activity, campaigned hard against what he referred to as Chávez's "imperialist" intentions. Peru and Venezuela even cut diplomatic ties during the campaign, with current President Alejandro Toledo citing Venezuela's meddling. García drew many of the votes of right-wing candidate Lourdes Flores in the second round and won with strong support in Lima and the industrial northwest. Humala's popularity in the poorer south was not enough for a win, but his party does represent the largest bloc in Congress. "Tonight, the country has sent a message of sovereignty and national independence and defended Mr. Hugo Chávez's efforts to incorporate us in his expansionist strategy," García said in his victory address. When first elected in 1985, García's beliefs were not unlike those of Chávez and Humala today, but he has since taken a more moderate, pro-market stance. This is evidenced in the strong reaction markets and the Bush administration took to his victory, and a congratulatory phone call he received from Chile's Bachelet soon after. While she represents the Socialist party, Bachelet (selected in January as South America's first woman elected head of state) is hardly a firebrand leftist of the Chávez or Morales sort. She is committed to her country's economic openness, but preaches a middle ground between neoliberalism and statism, whereby strong and effective social policies must be implemented to solve endemic problems of inequality and poverty caused by market forces. The Chilean president's line is similar to that of her counterparts in Brazil and Argentina. Brazil's Lula was elected in late 2002 to solve many of the problems Bachelet hopes to tackle. While some feared former union leader Lula might move the country far to the left, his administration has stuck to the openness and sound fiscal discipline of its predecessor while attempting to secure redistributive benefits for the poor. He is up for election again in October. Argentina's Kirchner, meanwhile, was elected after the political and economic upheaval stemming from his country's economic collapse at the end of the 1990s. He has worked hard not to discredit Argentina in the eyes of the international community while standing up to creditors and multi-national corporations who many believe were the agents of neoliberal policies that brought the country into crisis. Market fundamentalism in Latin America under the so-called Washington Consensus was previously seen as a panacea to the government corruption, mismanagement and debt that plagued the region during the middle part of the last century. But reliance on the private sector left many disheartened and marginalized by forces out of their control and strongly imposed by the U.S., Europe and other advocates of global capitalism. It is from within this environment that Chávez and Lula arose. While the two maintain an active dialogue and both cite Cuba's Fidel Castro as inspiration their politics and approach to U.S. influence are decidedly different. Using Venezuela's oil wealth, Chávez has used a strong hand to enact state-run poverty reduction programs for his largely poor support base and to quell the opposition. (No strong opponent has yet emerged for an election in December.) Meanwhile, due at least in part to U.S. dependence on his country's energy resources, Chávez has become empowered to voice resistance to U.S. influence in the region by supporting candidates with similar views. Lula has also reached out to his neighbors in the region and sought to counter U.S. authority, notably through stymieing of the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas. However, unlike Chávez, the Brazilian president has looked to negotiate with Washington and maintain a positive relationship with a country that represents a huge market for Brazilian goods and a source of investment funds. What García's victory in Peru indicates is a belief among the majority that the center-left path of Brazil, Chile and Argentina is a better choice than the radical nationalism of Chávez's Venezuela and Morales' Bolivia. Other elections in Ecuador and Nicaragua this year (the former's president fled the country in April 2005 and has a center-left candidate leading the polls, while the latter has Sandanista candidate Daniel Ortega trying to return to the presidency) will further test Chávez's influence beyond his country's own borders. In Mexico, which will hold elections on July 2, voters will choose between candidates who represent sides of a more traditional rivalry, with a technocratic former energy minister, Felipe Calderón, pitted against a leftist former mayor of Mexico City, Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador. If the left wins in Mexico, Colombian President Alvaro Uribe, who was reelected at the end of May, will be unique among the major Latin American countries as a right-wing leader. This probably has much to do with the ongoing war against left-wing guerrillas and cocaine traffickers, and the enormous amounts of aid it receives from the U.S. as a result. Voters in other countries where social and economic development are of primary concern have decided that the left is the better option for their current situation. But that left consists of two decidedly different points of view towards foreign and domestic affairs. Garcia's election suggests that a more moderate approach may win out. A former reporter at Dow Jones & Co., John Galante is a freelance journalist. In September he will begin at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs studying economic and political development in Latin America. He can be reached at [EMAIL PROTECTED] ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Check out the new improvements in Yahoo! Groups email. http://us.click.yahoo.com/gi.u7A/fOaOAA/Zx0JAA/uTGrlB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> -- This is ZESTGlobal. Post articles on international affairs to [email protected] If you got this mail as a forward, subscribe to ZESTGlobal by sending a blank mail to [EMAIL PROTECTED] OR, if you have a Yahoo! ID, by visiting http://groups.yahoo.com/group/ZESTGlobal/join/ Yahoo! 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