Angela's ashes Economist.com | October 05, 2006
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8000898 IT WAS never going to be easy for Angela Merkel to run a "grand coalition" government. After all, the coalition, between her centre-right Christian Democrats and the centre-left Social Democrats, came about only because she and her party did unexpectedly badly in last September's election. And, although Germany is a consensus-loving country, it does not warm to left-right coalitions at the federal level: the previous one, between 1966 and 1969, was not a particularly happy affair. Despite this, at the start of the year Ms Merkel looked surprisingly good. Her early foreign-policy forays, especially to Washington, DC, and Brussels, were glittering successes that drew a favourable contrast with her Social Democratic predecessor, Gerhard Schröder. The economy was at last picking up some momentum. Business confidence was high. Her party was even gaining ground with the electorate. For a brief moment, indeed, Ms Merkel was the most popular chancellor in history, scoring an 80% approval rating in the polls. In the past few weeks, however, she has come down to earth with a bump. A fractious dispute over health-care reform, which was supposed to be a centrepiece of the government's domestic agenda, has brought home how hard it is for the two coalition partners to agree on anything (see article<http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8001011>). Ms Merkel seems unable even to make deals with her own party's powerful state premiers, some of whom seem more interested in replacing her than in settling policy differences. Opinion polls and recent state elections show that support for both main parties continues to ebb. One recent poll even puts the Christian Democrats behind the Social Democrats, for the first time since Ms Merkel became chancellor. It is true that the economy is still doing quite well, and unemployment continues to fall—although only in Germany would this year's expected GDP growth of up to 2.5% be greeted with enthusiasm. But it is also true that Germany, like much of Europe, needs more substantial reforms to regain its economic vitality. The labour market is too regulated, taxes are too complex and too high, the public sector is bloated and unresponsive, the education and health systems need a shake-up. Yet because the two main parties disagree so much, the grand coalition has barely begun to tackle any of these. *This lady shouldn't be for turning* A good way forward would be for Ms Merkel herself to show some stronger leadership. She should start by exerting more discipline within her own party, as she is belatedly threatening to do by pulling her state premiers into line. But she might also have to consider other options. One is to prepare the ground for a different coalition, without the Social Democrats. The obvious one would combine the Christian Democrats, the Free Democrats and the Greens—a grouping known from the black, yellow and green party colours as a Jamaica coalition. However, even a Jamaica coalition would find it hard to agree on reforms, not least to health care. So she should also consider a second option: to plan for an early election. It is not straightforward to call one in Germany, but it might be possible to engineer an early poll in the second half of next year, after Germany's first-half presidency of the European Union and the G8 summit are both over. Throughout her political career, Ms Merkel has always made it clear that her instincts are to make progress in small steps, not giant leaps. She is by nature cautious, not bold. The trouble is that just now there is little sign of her taking even small steps in the direction of significant reform in Germany. If she is to have a lasting political impact on her country, she must start soon. -- This is ZESTGlobal. Post articles on international affairs to [email protected] If you got this mail as a forward, subscribe to ZESTGlobal by sending a blank mail to [EMAIL PROTECTED] OR, if you have a Yahoo! ID, by visiting http://groups.yahoo.com/group/ZESTGlobal/join/ Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/ZESTGlobal/ <*> Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional <*> To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/ZESTGlobal/join (Yahoo! ID required) <*> To change settings via email: mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
