http://www.pbs.org/mediashift/2009/12/film-industry-experts-offer-10-predictions-for-2010356.html
Film Industry Experts Offer 10 Predictions for 2010 by Nick Mendoza, December 22, 2009 Tagged: 3d, netflix, online distribution, video on demand Films such as "2001" and "2012" illustrate how the future has long fascinated Hollywood. With a new year on the horizon, I asked 10 executives and analysts, many of whom were in attendance at the recent Future of Film Summit in Santa Monica, Calif., for their predictions about the film industry. Below are 10 topics and thoughts on what the industry and consumers should expect next year and beyond. 1. 3D Ahmad Ouri, CMO, Technicolor: "2010 will be a defining year for 3D in theaters, in the living room, and even on mobile. For nearly a century, Technicolor has innovated entertainment for the big screen and the small screen, and we've seen the 'big' get bigger, and the 'small' screens get smaller, with the advancements in mobile devices. In 2010, we'll see 3D film and other content infiltrate all of these visual display mediums, and 3D will no longer be confined to the multiplex." 2. Alternative Content John Rubey, president, AEG Network Live: "Alternative content (e.g. concerts and sports in movie theaters) continues to grow in importance as traditional audiences shrink and fragment, while the alternative content grows and shows better, more predictable results." 3. Digital Production Steve Canepa, general manager, IBM Global Media and Entertainment Industry: "2010 will be the year that Hollywood productions begin to go digital end-to-end. Starting with capturing films on location with digital cameras and scanning analog prints into digital form, the footage will move across studio lots as digital data files. This will help to streamline workflows, to shorten production cycles, to support day-in-date release windows (theatrical, DVD and potentially video-on-demand for some markets) and to provide a readily accessible archive of all the film source content." 4. Digital Living Room Mike Saxon, senior vice president, research, Harris Interactive: "We have seen steady growth in consumer uptake of legal digital distribution outlets, including iTunes, Netflix, and Hulu. We expect this trend to continue in 2010, as Internet-connected TVs shift these services from the office to the living room." 5. DVD Rentals + On-Demand Online Steve Swasey, VP, corporate communications, Netflix: "In 2010, the trend toward movie enjoyment via the Internet will continue to grow, but not only as you might guess. Yes, more people will instantly watch movies and TV episodes from Netflix via the Internet on the TV or their computer in 2010 -- this area grew by 100 percent in the last year. But more people also will continue to rent DVDs online in 2010 compared to 2009. Netflix will increase its U.S. postage bill to $600 million in 2010, and to $700 million in 2011, to keep pace with the increased DVD rental demand. Whether it's streaming instantly or sending DVD and blu-ray discs via the U.S. mail, Netflix will continue to increase its delivery to people who want to watch great movies." 6. Mobile Video Frank Chindamo, president and chief creative officer, Fun Little Movies: "In 2010, everyone with a mobile phone will realize they're also holding a really cool video player, and start watching what they want to watch, when and where they want to watch it -- instead of having crappy over-hyped TV shows shoved in their faces." 7. Online Distribution Rick Allen, CEO, SnagFilms: "Online distribution will play an increasingly important role for all films, particularly documentaries, as audiences demand convenience and accessibility, and filmmakers seek to overcome the diminished opportunities on traditional platforms. Documentarians will bring in partners such as charities and advocates to help expand awareness, as well as audience." 8. Release Window Blair Westlake, corporate vice president, media and entertainment group, Microsoft: "As studios look for more revenue streams, a premium-priced home viewing window for movies will be commonly sandwiched between the theatrical release and the DVD release." 9. Theatrical Exhibition Andy DiOrio, corporate communications manager, AMC Entertainment: "Our crystal ball says that we will continue to see digital deployment expand in the industry, and at least one film is sure to pleasantly surprise us and exceed our expectations at the box office." 10. Video On Demand Jamie McCabe, executive vice president, worldwide PPV/VOD and EST (electronic sell-through), 20th Century Fox: "We will see continued growth in VOD across cable, telco and Internet delivered platforms with a significant expansion of available content and increased access to multiple screens." Nick Mendoza is the director of digital communications at Zeno Group. He advises consumer, entertainment and web companies on digital strategy, distribution and engagement. He blogs at The Social 7 and is the film correspondent for MediaShift. Follow him on Twitter @NickMendoza.
