> From: Bob Friesenhahn [mailto:bfrie...@simple.dallas.tx.us]
> Sent: Friday, December 17, 2010 9:16 PM
> 
> While I agree that smaller vdevs are more reliable, your statement
> about the failure being more likely be in the same vdev if you have
> only 2 vdev's to be a rather useless statement.  The probability of
> vdev failure does not have anything to do with the number of vdevs.
> However, the probability of vdev failure increases tremendously if
> there is only one vdev and there is a second disk failure.

I'm not sure you got what I meant.  I'll rephrase and see if it's more
clear:

Correct, the number of vdev's doesn't affect the probability of a failure in
a specific vdev, but the number of disks in a vdev does.  Lanky said he was
considering 2x7disk raidz, versus 3x5disk raidz.  So when I said he's more
likely to have a 2nd disk fail in the same vdev if he only has 2 vdev's ...
That was meant to be taken in context, not as a generalization about pools
in general.

Consider a single disk.  Let P be the probability of the disk failing,
within 1 day.

If you have 5 disks in a raidz vdev, and one fails, there are 4 remaining.
If resilver will last 8 days, then the probability of a 2nd disk failing is
4*8*P = 32P

If you have 7 disks in a raidz vdev, and one fails, there are 6 remaining.
If a resilver will last 12 days, then the probability of a 2nd disk failing
is 6*12*P = 72P



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