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South Asia Citizens Wire | 21 October, 2004 via: www.sacw.net [1] Can Pakistan Work? A Country in Search of Itself (Pervez Hoodbhoy) [2] Pakistani Journalists in Kashmir: View of the Valley - An Interview with Imtiaz Alam [3] India: Turning of the Indian tide (Praful Bidwai) [4] India: Limits of Law and Order Approach to the North-East (Walter Fernandes) [5] India: The recent elections in Goa - Fight Saffron Plague (Rajan Narayan) -------------- [1] Foreign Affairs November/December 2004 [Book Review] CAN PAKISTAN WORK? A COUNTRY IN SEARCH OF ITSELF Pervez Hoodbhoy The Idea of Pakistan. Stephen Philip Cohen. Washington: Brookings Institution Press, 2004, 367 pp. When he founded Pakistan in 1947, Muhammad Ali Jinnah-an impeccably dressed Westernized Muslim with Victorian manners and a secular outlook-promised the subcontinent's Muslims that they would finally be able to fulfill their cultural and civilizational destiny. Although the new nation arose from a bloodbath of ethnic cleansing and sectarian violence, and its fundamental premise was that Hindus and Muslims could never live together, its early years nevertheless held some promise of a liberal, relatively secular polity. But with time, Jinnah's Pakistan has grown weaker, more authoritarian, and increasingly theocratic. Now set to become the world's fourth most populous nation, it is all of several things: a client state of the United States yet deeply resentful of it; a breeding ground for jihad and al Qaeda as well as a key U.S. ally in the fight against international terrorism; an economy and society run for the benefit of Pakistan's warrior class, yet with a relatively free and feisty press; a country where education and science refuse to flourish but which is nevertheless a declared nuclear power; and an inward-looking society that is manifestly intolerant of minorities but that has never seen anything like the state-organized pogroms of India, Afghanistan, Iran, or China. [...]. [URL: http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20041101fareviewessay83611/pervez-hoodbhoy/can-pakistan-work-a-country-in-search-of-itself.html ] ______ [2] The Times of India - October 20, 2004 | Interview with Imtiaz Alam [The News / SAFMA / etc.] VIEW OF THE VALLEY What is the significance of the visit? How did it come about? We have been asking for free movement of journalists across the border for a long time. We raised the issue with Yashwant Sinha at the SAARC foreign ministers' meet in Islamabad. Later, when foreign minister Mahmood Kasuri came to New Delhi, SAFMA, India, brought it up with him. Now that the process of composite dialogue is making headway, it became possible. The visit was 'historic' in the sense that this is the first time that such an exchange has been permitted. A delegation of Indian journalists will be travelling to Pakistan next month. What was your brief? We were not carrying a brief from anybody. Nor are we here on a fact-finding mission. We just wanted to tell both sides that journalists are not partisan. That we can view things impartially and do a professional job. How did people respond to your visit? It was overwhelming. People came out on the streets in hundreds, there were welcome arches all over. There was a lot of excitement especially in the journalist commu-nity. It turned out to be a great exploratory mission, a great goodwill mission as well.Kashmiri Pandits demonstrated against you in Jammu. Such things happen. We had to face angry protests because they feel that what has happened to them is because of Pakistan. They think that we represent the Pakistani government. We don't, neither is it our job to defend Pakistan. The Pakistani high commission is there to do that. We visited their camps and found them living in inhuman conditions. The delegation was deeply moved by their plight. It is the responsibility of the Central government to look after them. But it seems much of the aid is being swindled. Who are these swindlers? The rehabilitation agencies and officials involved in this work. The government of India has not involved the UN Commissio-ner for Refugees which could have done a good job. What I found disturbing was that Kashmiriyat has vanished from the Kashmiri Pandits. They now take positions close to the RSS. Their reactions are communalised. They are a Hindu enclave. That is my impression. Some of them demand a separate state. Is there any justification for that? There is a reason for this reaction but you can't say it is justified. Of course, not all Pandits feel this way. We met many groups who want to go back to the Valley. It is the job of the government and the security agencies to get them rehabilitated. In contrast, the response to the Pandits in the Valley was non-communal. All of them want the Pandits to be rehabilitated. In Kashmir people mostly blame Jagmohan for the exodus. Did you find anything radically different from what you expected in the Valley? The overwhelming demand for azadi came as a big surprise. Kashmiris across the board - young and old, men and women, workers, taxi-drivers, shopkeepers - more than 90%, I would say, are for azadi. Even senior cadres of political parties across the board share this sentiment. I haven't heard such a public clamour except in East Pakistan in 1970-71 when it was about to separate. They even castigated us for coming here on Indian visas. They felt this was tantamount to betrayal of the Kashmir cause.Everybody interprets azadi differently. They may be clamouring for civil liberties. They are not just asking for civil liberties. The alienation in the Valley is complete. The human rights groups had a lot to say about violations. There were complaints against militants who were targeting civilians, but the complaints were overwhelmingly about state repression. A group of students in Srinagar university went to the extent of saying that the militants were a blessing in disguise. They argued that in every liberation movement people from other nations have joined. But that doesn't mean they want to accede to Pakistan. Do you think azadi is a viable option? It is none of my business. It's not my job to decide about the aspirations of the Kashmiris. But, there is realisation among all political parties in Kashmir, including the National Conference, that the Nehru-Sheikh accord has not worked. Should then the LoC be made the international border? That's India's position. I don't agree with it at all. There is a dichotomy in the Indian view. India wants all borders to be erased, but wants the LoC to be made permanent, how is that possible? The problem is that Indians still do not accept the Partition. They choose to call it an aberration of history. Someone asked me if the creation of Pakistan was justified? It was like asking me whether my birth was legitimate or not? If you don't respect my nationhood, why should I respect yours. ______ [3] The News International October 21, 2004 TURNING OF THE INDIAN TIDE Praful Bidwai The state Assembly elections in Maharashtra have delivered a nasty blow to the BJP-Shiv Sena and a handsome victory for the Congress-Nationalist Congress Party-led Democratic Front (DF). The ruling alliance faced heavy odds both from the burden of incumbency and inner-party rebellion by dissidents. The DF ran a poor government in India's most industrialised state. Under it, Maharashtra sank into a debt of nearly Rs100, 000 crores. Hundreds of farmers committed suicide thanks to a drought and the DF's mismanagement of relief provision. More shamefully, 3,500 children died of malnutrition. The BJP-Sena thought it could win the Maharashtra election and present the recent defeat of the Vajpayee-led National Democratic Front in national elections as an aberration or a flash in the pan. So how did the BJP-Sena manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory? The Congress-NCP focussed sharply on livelihood issues and affirmed secular, inclusive politics. The BJP-Sena couldn't convincingly counter them. The Sena-BJP campaign was fettered by the failing health of Atal Behari Vajpayee and Bal Thackeray, and further affected by the BJP's demoralisation from the loss of power nationally and by a bitter succession battle in the Sena. But a much weightier factor was the erosion of the two parties' social base, even in regions considered their strongholds. Maharashtra showed that the Congress's traditional constituencies like the urban poor, Muslims, Dalits and Adivasis are returning to it. The Congress-NCP's increased attraction is in no small measure attributable to the Left-leaning National Common Minimum Programme of the Central government and to "populist" measures recently taken by the DF. The BJP-Sena ran a highly divisive, vitriolic and negative campaign. During his sole public rally in Mumbai, jointly with Vajpayee, Thackeray launched a vicious attack on Mumbai's immigrant community, which forms 60 percent of its population, even as he brazenly peddled Maharashtrian chauvinism. Vajpayee acquiesced in this. This cost the BJP-Sena many non-Marathi votes. Even traditional BJP-Sena strongholds returned Congress candidates. The BJP-Sena's "development" agenda didn't sell. Nor did the Hindutva appeal centred on the National Flag and on the controversial figure of V D Savarkar, the initiator of the 'Two-Nation Theory'. BJP "master-strategist" Pramod Mahajan turned out a dud in his home state. His cynical calculation, namely that the Dalit-based Bahujan Samaj Party would eat into the Congress's votes, enabling Sena-BJP victories, went awry. Nor did the fiery rhetoric of Uma Bharati, fresh from her rather ludicrous Tiranga Yatra, or the demagoguery of Sushma Swaraj, back from a pro-Savarkar Andaman Jail campaign, produce results. The BJP had reckoned that a victory in Maharashtra would enable the National Democratic Alliance to turn things around and reaffirm its claim to being the "natural" party of governance, while undermining the UPA's credibility. The opposite happened. After Maharashtra, the UPA has consolidated itself. Bye-elections in other states too showed that the Congress is expanding its social support-base. The next state elections, in Bihar, Jharkhand and Haryana, due in February, could result in a further setback to the NDA. In Bihar, Laloo Prasad's RJD and the Congress form a formidable combination. In Jharkhand, tribal leader Shibu Soren's "martyrdom" through his arrest will work against the BJP. And in Haryana, Bansi Lal's return to the Congress will help the BJP's opponents. In the round of elections that comes later, in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala in 2006, the BJP isn't even in the reckoning. Recently, BJP leaders convinced themselves, on the basis of astrology(!), that the UPA would collapse by September 26. Then, they conjured up a scenario of a non-BJP-non-Congress "third front" - to be formed by Congress partners like the DMK and NCP quitting the UPA and eventually teaming up with the Samajwadi Party, Janata Dal(U), and others. The BJP would support such a front from the outside and topple the UPA. The Rashtriya Swabhiman Manch, recently formed by George Fernandes, Chandrasekhar, and Sushma Swaraj, was to be a step in that direction. Now, the leaders of this platform have been put out of business - at least for some time. After the latest defeat, L K Advani has taken over as BJP president. But the inner-party power struggle isn't going to end with this. This sudden move was meant to pre-empt a wholesale RSS takeover of the BJP - something the sangh has been pressing for. The move also cut Murli Manohar Joshi out from the race. It shows that the BJP's "second-generation" leaders (Venkaiah Naidu, Arun Jaitley, Pramod Mahajan, Rajnath Singh, Sushma Swaraj and Uma Bharati) aren't fit for the job. Indeed, no BJP leader, including Advani, has a real strategy or imagination for innovative politics. For far too long, the BJP flourished on slogans, catchy one-liners and gimmicky formulas. That isn't working anymore. There is a reason for this. The BJP's rise since the mid-1980s was not primarily based on its own positive appeal centred on Hindutva. Rather, the BJP gained from circumstances of others' making, such as the long-term decline of the Congress system. The Left was unable to fill the vacuum this left in the centre of the political spectrum. The BJP entered that space from the Right. For a period, mobilisation on Ayodhya/Babri mosque helped the BJP grow out of the confines to which its parent, the Jana Sangh, was restricted-geographically, largely to Northwestern states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat; and in class/caste terms, to the rich and middle-class upper layers of the Hindu hierarchy - in some cases, downright reactionary feudals like the former princes and zamindars. Between the mid-1980s and mid-1990s, the BJP implanted itself with aplomb in Uttar Pradesh, through a unique combination of mandal (low caste-based politics) and kamandal (Hindutva) represented by former UP Chief Minister Kalyan Singh. The Ayodhya mobilisation could help garner OBC, and to an extent, even Dalit, support for the BJP's pan-Indian "Hindu nation" project. For the first time, the party sank roots in North India. But this was reversed by the continuing "Forward March of the Backwards" (low castes), and the rise of the politics of Dalit self-representation. Barring Gujarat, and desultory gains in states like Jharkhand and Himachal, the BJP couldn't expand much beyond the old Jana Sangh zone of influence. Today, the BJP faces a three-fold crisis-a crisis of strategy (it has no coherent counter to the Congress or the Left); an organisational crisis (its leadership structure is dysfunctional and lacks credibility); and a crisis of leadership succession. It's too heavily invested in globalisation and Right-wing neo-liberalism to be able to take an independent policy stance. It's too deeply mired in Hindutva to be able to broaden its appeal beyond a small, bigoted minority. It's too cravenly devoted to power to rejuvenate itself when out of office. Today, the BJP is in danger of becoming too dependent on the RSS for coherence, mentorship and votes. This could be the kiss of death. The BJP has tried every trick in the Hindutva book, including Savarkar, Tiranga and terrorism. It has conjured up the spectre of Muslim demographic colonialism, and played the anti-Pakistan card. Nothing seems to work. As Vajpayee and Advani fade out, the party seems set for a long period of exile. ______ [4] Economic and Political weekly October 16, 2004 LIMITS OF LAW AND ORDER APPROACH TO THE NORTH-EAST Treating the problems in the north-east simply as an issue of law and order is not the solution; economic and other causes of insurgency have to be dealt with. Generation of employment is essential and the issues of land and forests cannot be ignored for they are central to the economy of the region and the culture, religion and identity of the tribals. A possible solution is for the centre to tread the difficult path of negotiating with all the groups simultaneously and go beyond treating the problem as a question of the centre versus the rest. Walter Fernandes For several decades the decisionmakers in Delhi have asked: 'Can the north-east be saved for India?' Today one hears many in the north-east asking the same question in reverse, 'can the north-east be saved from the repression it has been suffering for decades?' Both the questions have the same source, the insurgency or armed struggle that the rulers in Delhi view only as a law and order issue. To counter it they have assumed extraordinary powers under the Armed Forces Special Powers Act, 1958 (AFSPA). There is one set of reactions to the blasts in Assam on August 15 and in Dimapur and western Assam in early October. They are the reactions of a minority. The views of most others were probably symbolised in July 2004 when a group of women in Imphal, Manipur, bared their bodies in front of the Assam Rifles camp and displayed placards such as 'Indian army take our flesh' and 'Indian army, rape us.' It was their way of saying 'enough is enough', after a 30-year-old woman was found dead the day after her arrest by the Assam Rifles. They demanded the repeal of the AFSPA, which has been in force in the north-east, as a whole since 1958, and in Manipur since 1980. It comes into force when the state government declares an area as disturbed and gives extraordinary powers to the armed forces, such as allowing them to arrest a person on the suspicion that he or she is planning a crime. If s/he is killed and declared a terrorist, the armed forces are not prosecuted and so they are not accountable to the civilian government. There lies the source of abuse and disillusionment with the armed forces. One knows from the ongoing case in the Supreme Court that more than 2,000 young persons were killed and cremated anonymously in Punjab during the uprising in that state. The number of persons arrested and found dead has reached 26 in Manipur alone during 2004. In most cases the security forces claim that they were killed while trying to escape. That is why many in the north-east ask whether they will ever be freed from repression. Most civil society members who ask this question condemn human rights violations by the underground too. For example, human rights activists are in the forefront of those denouncing the underground for recruiting child soldiers but they feel that the state as a legally constituted body has greater responsibility than the underground to protect people's rights. In practice, violations by the state keep multiplying and it is against this background that the non-violent struggle led by 32 organi-sations is continuing in Manipur. Women are prominent among them. Women in many communities of the region have a long history of such interventions and of playing a significant role in times of war. Past initiatives, among the Meitei women of Manipur who are leading the present movement, is 'nupilan' or resistance to British rulers exporting rice from Manipur to feed their soldiers by depriving the local people of their staple food. Today they have formed themselves into 'meira paibis' or torch bearing women who are at the forefront of peace initiatives. One knows of Naga and Kuki women in Manipur meeting each other during the ethnic conflict between them in the 1990s in an effort to stop the killings [Brara 2002: 193-94]. When some Naga tribes went to war with another tribe, women from the opposing sides established networks to negotiate peace [Kikon 2002:170-71]. The bare-bodied demonstration of women in Imphal has to be seen in this context; of a sense of despair and as a creative initiative for peace. It was also a mode of shocking the world into taking notice of their oppression because women have suffered the most during the years of armed struggle. The attack often comes from the security forces in the form of rape. The underground also goes against women when, for example, they pitch their tent in a village and ask the villagers to feed them. The woman of the house has to often part with supplies she had stored to feed the family with during the year. And yet, many women's groups have continued their peace initiatives, the best known among them being the Naga Mothers' Association and the meira paibis. Background of the Unrest However, the centre tends to view the unrest only as a law and order issue. The AFSPA has been its response. It thus ignores the causes of conflict such as the neglect of the region by economic decision-makers, encroachment of land by immigrants, denigration of the local culture and attacks on people's identity. The basic cause is the failure of persons from outside the region, who control its economy, to invest in industry and the consequent high unemployment. This failure cannot be attributed to the absence of qualified personnel because the level of education is high in much of the region. Tarun Gogoi, the chief minister of Assam stated in August 2001 that his state had a backlog of 20 lakh unemployed persons. According to the state's economic survey, 2003-2004, the employment exchanges have 15,71,996 registered job seekers today against 15,24,616 in late 2001 (The Times of India, June 16, 2004). It is well known that employment exchanges underestimate unemployment because they exclude the rural and other sections of the informal sector, since most such unemployed persons are not registered [Rayappa 1992: 362-63]. So even 20 lakhs may be an underestimate for Assam. The other states would account for at least 10 lakhs more. Thus, a minimum of 30 lakhs or 25 per cent of the active workforce are unemployed. As a result, despite the high level of education, land continues to be the main source of livelihood but immigrants encroach on it and cause shortages. The Bangladesh is are one such immigrant group but not the only one. A much bigger number comes from the Hindi heartland of Bihar and UP. The number of Bangladesh immigrants is about 12 lakhs in the north-east [Bhuyan 2002] in an estimated total of 30 lakhs. Common to the Hindi states and Bangladesh is the feudal system, the lack of land reforms and consequent poverty. Thus, most immigrants are landless agricultural labourers who know cultivation techniques. They occupy the fertile land of the region, cultivate three crops and prosper. Most people of the region, on the contrary, have lived in a single crop culture. The 'zamindari' that the British introduced in Assam and Tripura resulted in the sharecropper system. Tenants had to give to the zamindar anything between half and two-thirds of their produce, so they lacked motivation to go beyond one crop. The hill tribes practised 'jhum' which is limited to a single crop [Barbora 1998]. Another factor is the control of the markets by outsiders who refuse to allow local people to prosper. For example, in the 1990s, the state government encouraged shallow tube well irrigation. This project had many shortcomings but it resulted in a bumper rice crop in 2000. However, those in control of the market refused to buy the rice and farmers had to sell it at a loss and with it died their motivation to grow three crops. Many local communities resent the fact that immigrants prosper on the land they encroach upon, while they are left behind. This has led to many killings. For example, most attacks in the Karbi Anglong district of Assam have been on the Biharis who have occupied land there. The insurgency in Tripura is attributed to the influx of Hindu Bangladeshis who occupied tribal land and reduced their proportion in the population from 58 per cent in 1951 to 28 per cent in 1991. By the late 1960s, indigenous tribals had lost more than 60 per cent of their land to immigrants. That is when the state announced the Dumbur dam which submerged 46.34 sq km of their land, most of it level, the latter makes up only 28 per cent of the state's total. The tribals protested but were forced off their land. By official count the dam displaced 2,558 families that had 'pattas'. Another 5,500 to 6,500 families that depended on common property resources were not even counted though they sustained themselves on the same, according to customary law. Many attribute impoverishment as the cause of the unrest in the state, which began around the same time. Besides, today urban environmentalists consider the tribals enemies of nature since their only livelihood alternative is shifting cultivation in the catchment area, which causes environmental degradation [Bhaumick 2003:84-85]. Thus, land encroachment by immigrants (not immigration in itself) and the refusal of persons from outside the region to invest in productive jobs are at the basis of the unrest. Sometimes the conflict is around jobs, for example, the Assamese-Bihari tension for 2,000 railway jobs in November 2003 but in most cases it is around land, which is the source of economic sustenance [Fernandes and Pereira 2004:83-84]. In saying that land and jobs are the basis of the conflicts, one cannot simplify the issue by calling it economic alone. The economic component is crucial but one cannot ignore the fact that, land and forests are the centre not only of the tribal economy but also of the culture, religious ethos and identity of tribals. Given their symbiotic relationship with the land and the close link between natural resources and culture, the affected ethnic groups view the land shortages also as an attack on their identity. Thus they view conflicts around land as defence of their culture, identity and livelihood [Acharya 1990:71-95]. The conflicts begin with attacks on outsiders and slowly turn into ethnic conflicts within the region. In the context of the land shortages caused by encroachment and the failure to invest in productive jobs, every group views the limited land and jobs as its exclusive right. So each community rewrites its history to claim an indigenous status and the exclusive right over resources in a given area. Ethnic conflicts are a direct consequence of such hardened ethnic identities and exclusive claims. Be it the Naga-Kuki conflict in Manipur [Fernandes and Bharali 2002:52-55], the Bodo-Santhal [Roy 1995] and Dimasa-Hmar tension in Assam (Telegraph, April 23, 2003) or the Tripura tribal demand for a homeland [Bhaumick 2003:84], all have their origin in the competition for land and jobs and result in massacres or the Assam-Bihar type of tension. Because of the ethnic consciousness that results from these conflicts, the local communities take their demands beyond land and jobs to livelihood. Centre's Reaction First, the response of the centre has been to reinforce the law and order machinery and view all unrest as secessionist, instead of solving the problems. Very little has been done for employment generation. In 1994 the region had only 166 large and medium industries. Many of them have closed down or have been declared sick, including all 12 in Nagaland [Ezung 2003]. The other alternative available to well educated youth is jobs in the administration but they too are declining. However, developments during the last few decades show that a focus on law and order does not solve the problems. When the AFSPA was enacted in 1958, the main resistance was from the Nagas, while Mizo resistance was building up. Today, Mizoram has had peace for 17 years but the number of underground outfits has multiplied. There are at least two major Naga outfits, Assam has units such as United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) and groups representing the Bodo, Dimasa, Karbi, Adivasi and several others. Manipur had two underground groups when the AFSPA came into force in 1980. Today it has nearly 30 such outfits. There are at least three such groups in Tripura and two in Meghalaya. One does not always know their origin. Some of them have an ideology but there are allegations that some others have been set up by the central intelligence agencies in order to counter groups with an ideology. Many others are allegedly purely extortionist groups that use the underground façade to their own advantage. It should be obvious from the enormous increase in the number of underground outfits that the AFSPA or a purely law and order view of the issues is not a solution to the problems of the region; social, economic and cultural issues have to be tackled. Secondly, the centre tends to view the north-east only as a problem. The people of the region are different from those in what they call 'mainland' India. Many of them belong to the Mongoloid stock and are close to the peoples of south-east Asia. That can give the north-east a definite advantage if the difference is used as a gateway to south-east Asia and China. Instead, the centre seems to be obsessed with security and treats this diversity as a threat and the region only as a buffer zone against China. Within the region, a major obstacle to investment is the inner line permit that prevents even Indians from entering Nagaland, Mizoram and Arunachal Pradesh. Only recently have foreign tourists been given entry into Nagaland but only in groups of four. More than once I have had the experience of a bus, in which I was travelling, being stopped by security forces at the Nagaland border and all the Nagas and their luggage being searched. But two of us non-Nagas were not examined, thus the local people are treated as foreigners in their own land. The third point relates to the centre's negotiations with individual underground outfits. For example, the Bodo have two main groups, the National Democratic Front of Bodoland and the Bodo Liberation Tigers (BLT) and the centre has negotiated and reached an agreement with the latter on a Bodo Territorial Council. It may be a good solution but by ignoring the other bigger outfit, it has ensured that the agreement will not work. Nagaland has two major outfits, the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Isaac-Muivah) and (Kaplang) NSCN (IM) and NSCN (K). In the late 1990s the centre signed an agreement with NSCN-IM and ignored NSCN-K. The group that is ignored is bound to raise higher demands and make a permanent solution difficult. The solution would be to negotiate with all the groups together. Fourthly, the centre deals with one issue or ethnic group at a time. The problems are inter-connected and tackling one at a time can create others. An example is the 2001 extension of the ceasefire with NSCN-IM to all the Naga inhabited areas in the neighbouring states. It resulted immediately in a conflict in Manipur where over half of the territory is inhabited by Naga tribes. The Meitei perceived it as a threat to the territorial integrity of Manipur. The agitation that followed has become as important a landmark in the history of resistance in Manipur as the present movement against the AFSPA. These and other piecemeal actions have in practice alienated all the factions from the centre. Fifthly, the centre negotiates with the underground outfits and rehabilitates its cadres after reaching an agreement. In other cases it rewards those who surrender. For example, surrendered cadres of the ULFA have been rehabilitated with jobs or plots for small tea gardens. The BLT cadre are being integrated with the police or paramilitary forces. Besides, negotiations are conducted only with the underground outfits and civil society is ignored. A message is thus given to youth that those who join the underground will be rehabilitated and rewarded eventually. That renders the basic issues and civil society irrelevant and marginalises groups like the Naga Women's Association that are active in the search for peace. Human rights groups are even branded anti-national. Possible Solutions That is where one sees the need to re-examine the official as well as civil society approach to the issues facing the north-east. Treating the issue only as one of law and order is not the solution; the economic and other causes of insurgency have to be dealt with. Productive employment is essential and the land issue cannot be ignored, but they have to be taken together with the remaining social, cultural and identity issues. One has also to recognise that the people of the region have lost confidence in the centre so Delhi has to begin with confidence-building measures with the communities of the region and establish its credibility with them. It has to begin to trust its people and treat its cultures and communities with respect. If confidence-building measures are possible with Pakistan, one sees no reason why they should not be attempted with the people of the north-east. That also involves treating the whole region as one. Dealing with one underground group at a time can only increase distrust between the ethnic communities of the region and make them feel that the centre is following a divide and rule policy in the region or even that it needs conflicts as a training ground for low intensity warfare. One has to add, however, that it is not going to be easy to deal with all the groups together because of the suspicion among them. For a unified approach to succeed the centre has to take a long-term view and not search for immediate solutions by dealing with one group at a time. A possible solution is for the centre to tread the difficult path of negotiating with all the groups simultaneously and go beyond treating it as a question of the centre versus the rest. Instead, the centre has to give the message that it is ready to negotiate with the region as whole, if the groups first negotiate among themselves and come to some agreement, and then deal with the centre as a totality. That requires the involvement of civil society elements that have been keeping inter ethnic group peace networks alive during the last several decades of conflicts. It may take five or more years for the warring groups to come together but it has to be viewed as an investment in long-term peace and justice. This is where economic issues find their place. Peace cannot be built in the absence of war alone but has to be based on justice. Conditions therefore, have to be created so that the people of the region take control of economic decisions. Immigration cannot be ignored but one has to desist from the temptation of giving it a communal colour by focusing on Bangladeshis alone. The fact that poverty pushes the people of Bangladesh, Bihar and UP out of their region has to be acknowledged. But one cannot ignore the fact that, it creates serious problems in the region. The ideal is to attempt the integrated development of the whole region including Bangladesh, Bhutan, the north-east and Myanmar. Obviously it is an ideal and cannot be attained overnight. But confidence building measures would include loud thinking about this long-term possibility. At present, the effort is only to increase trade with China and south-east Asia. If the centre is serious about confidence-building measures, Delhi can go to south-east Asia through the north-east and treat ethnic difference not as a problem, but as an opportunity for ongoing relations with this part of Asia. Basic to the approach is a move away from the present law and order view of the problems confronting the region. National security is important but genuine security is found not merely in defending physical boundaries but primarily in gaining the confidence of the peoples within them. References Acharya, S K (1990): 'Ethnic Processes in North-Eastern India' in D Pakem (ed), Nationality, Ethnicity and Cultural Identity in North-East India, Omsons Publications, New Delhi, pp 69-108. Barbora, Sanjay (1998): Plantation Systems and Labour Movements in North-East India, unpublished Mphil thesis, Department of Sociology, Delhi School of Economics, Delhi. Bhaumick, Subir (2003): 'Tripura's Gumti Dam Must Go', Ecologist Asia, 11, no 1, January-March, pp 84-89. Bhuyan, Jogesh Ch (2002): 'Influx from Bangla: Demographic Change in NE', Sentinel, May 4. Brara, N Vijayalakshmi (2002): 'Breaking the Myth: The Social Status of Meitei Women' in Walter Fernandes and Sanjay Barbora (eds), Changing Women's Status in India: Focus on the North-East, North Eastern Social Research Centre, Guwahati, pp 193-201. Ezung, Evorthung (2003): The Impact on Common People Because of Government Policy on Globalisation and Abolition of Supplies of Fertilisers, paper presented at 'Seminar on WTO and Food Security in the North-East', North Eastern Social Research Centre, Guwahati, August 1-2. Fernandes, Walter and Gita Bharali (2002): The Socio-Economic Situation of Some Tribes of Bishnupur and Palizi, mimeo, North Eastern Social Research Centre, Guwahati. Fernandes, Walter and Melville Pereira (2004): Changing Land Relations in North Eastern India: A Comparative Study of Six Tribes and One Non-Tribal Community, mimeo, North Eastern Social Research Centre, Guwahati. Kikon, Dolly (2002): 'Political Mobilisation of Women in Nagaland: A Sociological Background' in Walter Fernandes and Sanjay Barbora (eds), op cit, pp 174-82. Rayappa, P H (1992): 'The Right to Work: The 1990 Proposal and the 1991 Economic Policy', Social Action, 42, no 4, October-December, pp 361-73. Roy, Ajay (1995): The Boro Imbroglio, Spectrum Publishers, Guwahati. ______ [5] >From Goan Observer 15-21 Oct. 2004 FIGHT SAFFRON PLAGUE NARKASURAS PREVAIL Despite an unprecedented display of solidarity by the Opposition, money and muscle power has prevailed in the Poinguinim bye-elections. The Opposition needs to redouble its efforts to confront and destroy the saffron plague, asserts RAJAN NARAYAN. PEOPLE'S VERDICT The Bharatiya Janata Party candidate, Isidore Fernandes, won the Poinguinim bye-elections by a margin of 2,495 votes over his rival Jagdish Acharya. Isidore triumphs! THE LESSON OF Poinguinim is that in the Kaliyug evil more often triumphs over good. Despite an unprecedented display of unity by the Opposition the Bharatiya Janata Party candidate, Isidore Fernandes, has won a thumping victory. Dramatising that money and muscle power play a decisive role in predominantly backward class constituencies. The booth-wise figures also suggest that the minority community did not support the common Opposition candidate, Jagdish Acharya. Cover story. . . (Goan Observer, October 16-22, 2004.) The Narkasura represented by Manohar Parrikar and his chief asura, Babush Monserrate, outspent and outmuscled the combined Opposition by a ratio of ten to one. The turncoat Isidore Fernandes also benefited from the fact that the government machinery, particularly the police, openly sided with the Judas who betrayed both the party whose ticket he was elected on and the voters he represented in the Legislative Assembly. The partisan role played by the police and the government machinery was very much in evidence on polling day when the law and order forces seemed to be exclusively preoccupied with Opposition leaders and looked the other way when large scale violations of the electoral code were committed by the BJP. Even though the BJP was caught red-handed distributing money on election eve the district and police officials refused to take cognizance of the incident. The victory of Isidore bodes ill for Goa. The victory will embolden the saffron brigade to more vigorously pursue its insidious agenda of undermining and destroying Goa's tradition of communal harmony and fusion. What is even more alarming is that it will give legitimacy to monsters like Babush Monserrate who believes that he can subvert and pervert the democratic process with money and muscle power. The lesson of the Poinguinim elections is that the Opposition needs not only to redouble its efforts to combat the saffron plague but also to start an intense campaign to educate the people of Goa on the implications of the victory of Isidore in Poinguinim. At a national level all political parties need to take cognizance of the precedent that Poinguinim has set. The new method of defection which Goa has just legitimatised. It is the first time since liberation that not only all the warring factions within the Congress Party but the entire Opposition came together to confront the venomous communal Narkasuras who have been systematically undermining the secular fabric of the State of Goa for over five years now. The Poinguinim bye-elections saw all the political heavyweights of Goa setting aside their jumbo egos and working shoulder-to-shoulder to trounce the agent of the rakshashas, Isidore Fernandes. It did take a little time for the combined Opposition and warring Congress chieftains to realise the consequences of Isidore Fernandes winning the bye-elections. But fortunately enlightenment finally dawned and the Opposition came together in an awesome show of strength and solidarity. SOLIDARITY MEET A SOLIDARITY which was dramatised at the meeting held at Gaondongri on the eve of the elections on Sunday last. Seated in the front row of the makeshift dais were all the former chief ministers excepting for Shashikala Kakodkar. Indeed, this is the first time I have seen Pratapsing Raoji Rane, Dr. Wilfred De Souza, Churchill Alemao, Luizinho Faleiro, Ravi Naik, and Francisco Sardinha, all former chief ministers, sharing the dais and talking and acting in unison. The Opposition solidarity was further dramatised by the presence on the dais of the MGP general secretary Kashinath Jalmi and the UGDP general secretary Prashant Naik. Of the 15 Congress MLAs in the Legislative Assembly as many as 14 were present and actively took part in the campaign. The only exception was Loutalim MLA Alex Sequeira who claimed to be unwell. There as also a considerable presence of former Congress MLAs including Fatima D'Sa whose sasumai is from Canacona. The catalyst if not the adhesive bond was the Lok Shakti with Datta Naik camping in Poinguinim for over a fortnight. It is not just the presence of so many Opposition stalwarts on the dais on Sunday at the Gaondongri meet but even the tenor of their speeches dramatised that the Opposition has finally woken up to the major truth. The truth that if they continue to be divided Parrikar will pick them up one by one and demolish and devour them. As the BJP wolf has done with so many Opposition stalwarts who were taken in by his benign grandma masquerade and his rhetoric of good governance and zero tolerance for corruption. The Opposition stalwarts have not limited themselves to making public speeches. Indeed, on polling day each of the Congress MLAs and their Opposition comrades were allotted a polling booth each and entrusted with the responsibility of not just getting the voter out but persuading the electorate in Poinguinim to vote for the people's candidate Jagdish Acharya. The combined Opposition campaign in Poinguinim has been a very well orchestrated symphony. The OBC leaders Kashinath Jhalmi and former MLA Vasupai Gaonkar had concentrated on breaking Isidore's Velip vote bank. And convincing the Velips that their interests would be better served by backing the people's candidate Jagdish Acharya. Kashinath Jhalni was at his persuasive best and repeatedly stressed the government's failure to implement the central notification which confers on the Gaudis, the Velips and the Kunbis the status of Scheduled Tribes. The deputy leader of the Opposition and the the best strategist in the Congress camp Dayanand Narvekar concentrated on wooing the Pagi community to which he belongs. Similarly, the bamons both Catholics and Hindus in the combined Opposition ranks wooed the saraswats and the Bhats to counter Manohar Parrikar's pleas that they should vote for Isidore to ensure the continuance of a fellow Saraswat as the CM. The undisputed leader of the Bhandari Samaj, Ravi Naik, canvassed for Bhandari votes. And leading the charge was Churchill Alemao. The Lok Shakti, of course, was here, there and everywhere. Smoothening ruffled feathers, tempering and dousing smouldering egos and appealing to the sense of honour of voters stretching across community and caste. The appeal of Lok Shakti strummed at the heartstrings of the voters. "Selling packaged milk is fine. But how can you vote for a man who wants to sell his mother's milk?" The Lok Shakti was able to play a catalytic role in the Jagdish Acharya campaign because unlike the other political parties and individual politicians it neither sought cash nor credit and was single-minded in reminding everyone involved in the fray that the fight was for dharma . For upholding basic democratic values. For preserving the secular character of Goa and safeguarding Goa's tradition of communal harmony and fusion. During my visits to Poinguinim and particularly when I saw the unprecedented display of unity and solidarity among the warring congress factions and the opposition leaders it struck me very forcefully that united the opposition can completely obliterate the saffron plague. The combined opposition, even if one takes into account just the warring factions within the Congress has collectively five to ten times the money power than the BJP in Goa can ever marshal. With or without the support of Babush Monserrate. The combined opposition particularly if you take into account the Alemao clan and the Victoria Fernandes clan have more muscle power than the BJP and a hundred Babush Monserrate. After all Churchill Alemao and Victoria Fernandes are the original Godfather General and the Godmother General of Goa. It was under the benign or malignant protective umbrella of the Protectors led by Rudolf Fernandes that Babush Monserrate developed his now thriving money lending and extortion rackets. The combined opposition has more brain power than the BJP and its collaborators. If the likes of Dayanand Narvekar and Dr Wilfred D' Souza and Ravi Naik and Khasinath Jhalmi can strategise together they can outthink and out manoeuvre all the Parrikars and the Digambars and the Monserrates. In every way the combined opposition has a clear and almost unbridgeable advantage over the BJP and its collaborators. In the churning which has taken place in Goa's politics in the last few years a lot of poison has surfaced. Venomous poison in the form of communalism. The brand of poison that is created and spread by the likes of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad chief Pravin Togadia and his ardent disciples like the "Chief Monster of Gujarat" Narendra Modi and his equally notorious counterpart in Goa, Manohar Parrikar. The kind of venom which labels Muslims as Rahus and Catholics as Ketus. It will be recalled that Pravin Togadia on a recent visit to Goa exhorted the people and presumably his chela Manohar Parrikar to use and discard the Rahus and Ketus. The Poinguinim bye-elections sought to consolidate the reign of the saffron rakshashas on secular Goa. The Poinguinim bye-elections sought to perpetuate the politics of hate. The polarisation of the staunchly secular people of Goa along communal lines. To undo Goa's legacy of cultural harmony and fusion. Manohar "Narkasur" Parrikar became increasingly apprehensive that the Ketus he had hoodwinked into joining the saffron brigade if not the Rahus might discover his true colours and desert him. As Micky Pacheco did. The Parrikar government was in danger of being de-throned. Of being reduced to being a minority with the possibility that the MGP MLA Sudhin Dhavilikar, the UGDP MLA Mathany Saldana and the independent MLA Philip Neri would all abandon the saffron ship. It was against this backdrop that Manohar "Narkasur" Parrikar and his principle asura Babush Monserrate engineered the bye-elections in Poinguinim. DOUBLE BETRAYAL IT WAS A double betrayal. On the one hand Isidore "Judas" Fernandes was induced to resign his Poinguinim Assembly seat. He was subsequently bribed into re-contesting the resulting bye-elections on the Bharatiya Janata Party ticket. Even Judas betrayed Jesus Christ only once. But Isidore betrayed the people who voted him to the Assembly twice over. And absurdly enough Isidore's alibi for resigning from his seat as a Congress legislator to re-contest the very same seat on the BJP symbol was that the development of his constituency had suffered. And the only way of ensuring the development of his constituency and fulfilling his commitment to the voters was for him to become part of the ruling party. Never mind that both within the Legislative Assembly and the outside the same Isidore Fernandes had vehemently reiterated that one need not be either a minister or a member of the ruling party to secure the development of his or her constituency. Poinguinim is a symbol of opposition unity. But whether the unity will be sustained is a question mark. There is a fatal flaw in the Persian carpet woven together so painstakingly to defeat Isidore Fernandes. MAJOR WEAKNESS The weakness, the Achilles heel of the combined opposition is greed. The weakness of the combine opposition is lust bordering on obsession with power of its senior leaders. Unlike the BJP which has just one undisputed leader - never mind all of Babush talk about being equal to the chief minister - the opposition has five former chief ministers and half a dozen aspiring chief ministers. The weakness of the combined opposition is that every one of the leaders wants atleast a cabinet berth. They will not even settle for a corporation. And the limitation on the size of the cabinet has only made things even more difficult of the opposition to come together. The opposition has put up a magnificent show of solidarity in Poinguinim. Not because of any great love they have for each other. But because they are united in their fear if not hate for Parrikar. Our apprehension is greed will overcome fear. And the obsession with kodels will be able to shatter the beautiful stained-glass windows of opposition solidarity. The writing on the wall is clear. It is not enough for the Opposition to come together. They also have to put their hands into their deep pockets and put their money where their mouth is. Whether we like it not money has become a major if not decisive factor in electoral politics in Goa. _/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/ Buzz on the perils of fundamentalist politics, on matters of peace and democratisation in South Asia. 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