Example: Linda is 31, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in
philosophy in college. As a student, she was deeply concerned with
discrimination and other social issues, and she participated in
antinuclear demonstrations. Which statement is more likely to be
true?
a. Linda is a bank teller
b. Linda is a bank teller and active in the feminist movement.
Just a nitpicky observation (which is actually totally irrelevant to
Ben's interesting point about proposition independence)
I think its actually correct to say that (b) is more likely than (a).
Humans dont get this "wrong" because they are bad at reasoning. They
get this "wrong" because of the ambiguities of natural language.
Unlike mathematical language, human speech has many statements which
are implied. I think its fair to say that in most conversational
contexts, when (b) is stated, it creates an implied second clause to
option (a):
a. Linda is a bank teller and NOT active in the feminist movement.
In this case, it is correct to say that (b) is more likely than (a).
When annoyingly logical people insist that this is wrong, they are
actually stating that the implied second argument is:
a. Linda is a bank teller and EITHER active OR not active in the
feminist movement.
This may be true on logic tests, but it aint the case in the real
world. Just something to keep in mind when talking about human
reasoning...
Mike
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