> That orphan rate increase will go to whoever is producing the 20MB blocks, > NOT you. >
This depends on how miners are connected. E.g. suppose there are three miners, A and B have fast connectivity between then, and C has a slow network. Suppose that A miners a block and B receives it in 1 second. C receives it in 6 seconds. This means that blocks mined by C during these ~5 seconds will be orphaned because B gets A's block first.
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