So, if it wasn't for luck of having Lincoln, we'd have a 20th century without
the massive influence of the US. If any of the other Republicans won, it
would be hard to see how the US would have emerged as a major world player.
Is that a fair assessment?
I don't think so, because while we know what happened, we have absolutely no way of predicting what would have happened if Lincoln had lost. Maybe we can predict a year or two out, but after that the imponderables start to multiply. After 5 years, 10 at the most, things would branch in ways that we can't imagine, literally. As a professionally trained historian, I find counter-factuals mildly interesting, at best, and a major distraction at worst. It's hard enough making sense of what did happen without imagining what might have. Trying to imagine what the 20th century would have been like, 40 years after the event to be changed in question - it's too big a stretch. So many things could and would have happened differently in the four intervening decades - beyond our comprehension. We have NO IDEA what the US would be like if Lincoln hadn't won - we have no way of even having an idea.
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Tom Beck
my LiveJournal: http://www.livejournal.com/users/tomfodw/
"I always knew I'd see the first man on the Moon. I never thought I'd see the last." - Dr. Jerry Pournelle
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