John Williams wrote: > So now you implicitly claim not only to be able to predict what would > happen if the government did not intervene immediately after the > various investment bank problems, but also what would have happened > many months after that under the influence of unknown intervention > efforts. Since distinguished economists have repeatedly failed to > predict much simpler things on shorter time scales, I find your claim > highly dubious.
You probably know this, but a prediction is knowing something before it happens, not extrapolating what would have happened after the fact. In a baseball game, if an error is made on a play that would have ended an inning and a number of runs are scored afterwards, its not much of a stretch to say that if the error had not occurred, the runs wouldn't have scored. It is certainly not a prediction. Doug _______________________________________________ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
