02 August 2005
Two of Pakistan's major newspapers
released articles on Tuesday discussing PINR's latest analysis on Pakistan,
titled "Pakistan: a Geopolitical
Crux".
The articles can be found below:
"Pakistan called a 'regional great power'"
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_2-8-2005_pg7_58
"Pakistan's geopolitical importance
increases"
http://www.dawn.com/2005/08/02/top4.htm
In light of Iran's recent nuclear posturing, we recommend the
following past PINR Intelligence Brief:
July 2005: "Intelligence Brief: Iran"
http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=322
------------------------------
Intelligence Brief: Caribbean Spheres of Influence
Drafted By: Dr. Michael A. Weinstein
http://www.pinr.com
Widening and deepening
competition for spheres of influence in the Western Hemisphere became evident
during the week of July 25 with the summit meeting of the Association of
Caribbean States (A.C.S.) and the passage of legislation in the U.S. House of
Representatives approving the Central American Free Trade Agreement
(C.A.F.T.A.). [See: "Intelligence Brief: C.A.F.T.A."]
Through the
election of center-left governments pledged to implementing social welfare and
import substitution models of economic development, in place of the neo-liberal
free trade paradigm, in Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay, in addition to the
election of Hugo Chavez, who promotes a more radical model of cooperativism, to
Venezuela's presidency, Washington's leadership in the hemisphere has been
credibly challenged over the past several years.
The rise of the
center-left and populist left in South America has opened up a north-south split
and a resulting competition between the two sides that reaches its flash point
in Central America and the Caribbean -- the border between the two power blocs
where they contend for dominant influence.
With their high poverty and
unemployment rates, and their lack of military power, the states of Central
America and the Caribbean are dependent upon more prosperous and stronger
outside powers for their economic sustenance and development, and their
security. In turn, the powers of the north and south of the hemisphere bid for
the allegiance of the weaker states in the center.
In part, the
north-south competition is a normal development of power politics -- the rise of
Brazil's economic power and the use by Caracas of Venezuela's petroleum-created
wealth for geostrategic purposes inexorably leads to a rebalancing of
hemispheric power. The general tendency toward multipolarity is compounded by
clashing models of economic development that reflect conflicts generated by
domestic and national interests of the contending sides.
A.C.S.
Summit
Founded in 1994 and including 25 states in and bordering the
Caribbean Sea, the A.C.S. is committed to fostering "consultation, cooperation
and concerted action" among its members. One of the maze of regional
organizations that have sprung up around the world since the fall of the Soviet
Union and the consequent collapse of the bipolar configuration of world power,
the A.C.S. has functioned as a consultative forum and has made only small steps
toward integration and none toward concerted action.
The A.C.S. has
remained a forum because of the divergent interests of its members that reflect
the pushes and pulls of the north-south split. The north projects itself into
the organization through Mexico, a partner in the Washington-led North American
Free Trade Agreement (N.A.F.T.A.). The south is present through Venezuela, which
pursues an assertive policy of oil diplomacy. The weaker states in the middle
have divided allegiances, with market-oriented center-right governments --
primarily in Central America -- supporting Washington, and the Caribbean islands
and Panama leaning toward Caracas because of its provision of subsidized oil to
them.
Although the A.C.S. cannot be expected to be a vehicle of concerted
action, it is politically significant as an arena in which the competing powers
can bid for influence among the member states.
The north-south split was
starkly apparent at the A.C.S. summit of heads of government and top cabinet
ministers held in Panama City on July 28-29. The major news from the summit was
the push by Caracas of its "PetroCaribe" plan, which offers Central American and
Caribbean states crude oil on favorable terms. Venezuelan Foreign Secretary Ali
Rodriguez announced that Caracas was ready to expand its program by tailoring
deals to the particular conditions and needs of each participating state: "We
can use methods from the most ancient to the most modern to achieve these types
of exchanges." Those methods include credits, subsidized prices and barter
exchanges.
Caracas' oil diplomacy won wide support at the summit.
Thirteen of the 15 island countries in the A.C.S. have already signed on to
PetroCaribe, Panama is in negotiations and even Washington's chief ally in South
America, Columbian President Alvara Uribe, said: "I can envision Venezuela
playing a great leadership role."
Mexico City's response to Caracas came
in Mexican President Vicente Fox's call for a "strategic alliance" based on free
trade and open markets, and investment protection accords that would give
Mexican business interests in construction, manufacturing and telecom greater
access to the region.
On balance, Caracas made headway at the summit at
the expense of Mexico City and Washington. While the six C.A.F.T.A. states in
the region -- Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and the
Dominican Republic -- remained on the side of the north, the rest of the A.C.S.
members solidified their ties with and support of the south on the basis of the
tangible benefits provided by Caracas.
C.A.F.T.A.
On the
day before the A.C.S. summit convened, the U.S. House of Representatives
approved U.S. membership in C.A.F.T.A. by a razor-thin majority of 217-215. The
agreement, which lowers tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods, had run into
determined opposition in Congress mounted by a coalition of sugar growers,
textile manufacturers, labor unions, and human rights, labor rights and
environmentalist groups.
With the Central American and Caribbean members
of C.A.F.T.A. already receiving favorable trade terms from Washington,
formalizing the agreement has the economic consequence of helping domestic
interests in the U.S. The Bush administration pushed hard for C.A.F.T.A. not
only to reward those interests, but to lock the Central American and Caribbean
members into a firm relation with Washington in order to ensure that regional
trade remains geared to the U.S. and to forestall the spread of Caracas' sphere
of influence.
Had Congress failed to approve C.A.F.T.A., the center-right
governments in the region that had signed on to the agreement would have
suffered a loss of credibility and overall U.S. trade policy would have been
placed in jeopardy. As it stands, growing economic nationalism in the U.S.
probably means that C.A.F.T.A. will be the high watermark of Washington's
neo-liberal strategy.
The Bottom Line
The inroads made by
Caracas' oil diplomacy at the A.C.S. summit and the passage of C.A.F.T.A. in the
U.S. Congress have sharpened the divide in the Caribbean region between
pro-north and pro-south states. With Washington seemingly unwilling to offer
incentives to oil-dependent states in the region, Caracas is free to create its
"solidarity" coalition, but will be blocked in efforts to expand it by the
C.A.F.T.A. states as long as they retain governments favorable to
Washington.
The outcome of the competition for spheres of influence in
the Caribbean region will be in great part determined by the domestic politics
of the region's states -- whether the balance of power between center-right and
center-left and left governments shifts appreciably.
Report Drafted
By:
Dr. Michael A. Weinstein
