Begin forwarded message:
> From: dasg...@aol.com > Date: July 16, 2010 3:53:54 PM PDT > To: ramille...@aol.com > Cc: ema...@aol.com, j...@aol.com, jim6...@cwnet.com, christian.r...@gmail.com > Subject: Paranoid Wall Street: Guns Loaded, Suitcases Packed, Jets Ready for > Fast Getaway > > Wall Street Apocalypse: > > The World of the Doomsday Investors > > By BRUCE WATSON > Daily Finance, July 4, 2010 > http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/media/wall-street-apocalypse-finances-doom-and-gloom-crowd/19506748/ > > > Predictions of the end of civilization are nothing new, but the direst > prognosticators have, traditionally, existed on the fringes of society, where > their dark visions can be comfortably attributed to an excess of > libertarianism or a shortage of Prozac. In the last few years, however, > something strange has happened. While there is no lack of survivalists > stockpiling cat food and rifles, some of the direst thinkers are now working > on Wall Street, where a combination of fear and foresight has many of the > country's money men contemplating their escape routes. > > Patron Saint of Dire Predictions > > The patron saint of the Wall Street apocalypse society may be Barton Biggs. > The leader of Traxis Partners, a multibillion-dollar hedge fund, Biggs has > gained a reputation for his dire predictions, particularly those of his > much-quoted 2008 analysis of World War II, Wealth, War and Wisdom. At the > end of the book, Biggs offers his conclusions from his brief study of > history, suggesting the likelihood of a future era in which "People with > wealth" will face "another time of cholera when the Four Horsemen will ride > again and the barbarians unexpectedly will be at their gate." > > Biggs offers some interesting advice for hedging the apocalypse. In addition > to prescribing a highly diversified portfolio heavily invested in equity > instruments, Biggs also advises that his readers buy farms to which they can > retreat when the hammer drops. The hedgie touts the joys of the natural life, > noting that "landowners seem to find considerable psychic satisfaction just > from the knowledge of possession. There are few things as fulfilling as > having drinking in the sunset and looking at your fields and cows." > > This bucolic perspective seems to owe more to Little House on the Prairie > than to any actual experience on Biggs's part. Although the author briefly > worked as a schoolteacher and a semiprofessional soccer player, his New > York-Yale-Wall Street career track doesn't seem to have left much time for > tilling fields and milking cows. > > Stock Essentials Like Food, Medicine, Wine... > > But this doesn't stop Biggs from telling his readers what they need to do in > order to wait out the end of the world: "Your safe haven ... should be > well-stocked with seed, fertilizer, canned food, wine, medicine, clothes, > etc. Think Swiss Family Robinson." > > He goes on to suggest that, when the post-apocalyptic hordes attack, the > survivalist money man should shoot first and ask questions later: "A few > rounds over the approaching brigands' heads would probably be a compelling > persuader that there are easier farms to pillage. Brigands tend to be > cowards." > > It's amusing to contemplate Biggsland, where starving gangs of "brigands" can > be frightened away by a shot from his boom stick and precious food space can > be taken up with wine. For that matter, while it isn't hard to imagine Barton > gazing upon his fields and cows, the image of the soft-palmed money man > slopping out stalls or picking cabbage stretches the imagination. > > Ayn Rand and Jim Rogers > > In Biggs's dark suggestion that wealthy people build rural fortresses, he > references another popular Wall Street touchstone: Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged. > Towards the end of the book, as frightened mobs become feral, one of the > "looters" runs away: "'[Chick Morrison] has a hideout all stocked for himself > in Tennessee,' said Tinky Holloway reflectively, as if he, too, had taken a > similar precaution and was now wondering whether the time had come." While > Wall Street's objectivists don't see themselves as villains, many seem more > than willing to follow the lessons of Rand's demonic bad guys. > > Biggs isn't the only one offering visions of impending economic apocalypse. > Every so often, Jim Rogers repeats his prediction that America will be rocked > by "civil and social unrest" within the next three to five years. Then again, > Rogers has long since abandoned his homeland. In 2007, the famed investor > sold his New York mansion and relocated to Singapore, stating that "If you > were smart in 1807 you moved to London, if you were smart in 1907 you moved > to New York, if you were smart in 2007 you moved to Asia." > > However, if Rogers was hoping to escape an impending American meltdown, it > seems that he may not have gone far enough away. After a visit to India, he > wrote, "India as we know it will not survive another 30 or 40 years. This of > course does not have to end in disaster, but it probably will." > > Invest in Farmland and Precious Metals > > Marc Faber, another doom and gloom prognosticator, is also based in Asia. > Famed for his dark perspective, the financial adviser recently suggested that > fund managers should invest heavily in farmland and precious metals -- the > first, because it provides a safe haven, and the second, because they are > portable and liquid. > > A fan of dark humor, Faber previously advised spending stimulus cash on "beer > and prostitutes, as these are the only products still produced in the U.S." > > Jokes aside, Faber's prognostications don't seem to have protected him from > making some questionable choices. After all, he built offices in Hong Kong > and Thailand. The first place was subsequently handed over to Communist > China, while the second has recently found itself embroiled in a coup, > martial law and violent protests. Faber's followers may want to take his > political and real estate advice with a grain of salt. > > For some companies, predictions of apocalypse have been good for business: > Post Peak Living and Transition United States have both used dark visions to > build a compelling business model that can convince the gullible and > frightened to fork over cash for useless advice. > > As for Biggs and company, their fanciful vision of the future provides an > interesting glimpse into the darker corners of the Wall Street id. Whether > Biggs's dark predictions are a reflection of his deepest fears or fondest > hopes, his unresolved guilt or continuing belief in his own exceptionalism, > his advice suggests a world in which exploitative chickens truly come home to > roost.
