On 11/10/21 08:48, Saku Ytti wrote:

Ranting and raving follows.

All (smart) executives claim the upside is because of their leadership
and downside is because of the market. While no data supports that
replacing executive A with executive B improved or reduced company
performance, that is, we don't know what qualities make companies fail
or succeed.

But I admire the beauty of something like this: https://exainfra.net/about-us/
'Under Xs’ leadership, GTT bought over 40 companies and grew annual
revenues from $65 million to over $1.6 billion during his tenure'

I call this the "bottom line factor". People do not care about details anymore, both on the consumer side, and on the provider side. They just bottom line their experience based on who was in charge.

Odd, then, that Steve Jobs had success, failure and success, at Apple, with the last bout totally blowing the whole game out the water. After all, if Apple nearly collapsed under him, then the metrics suggest he'd have no chance of reviving it.

But...


Having said that, 5y performance:
SP500: 110%
CSCO: 90%
NOK: 20%
JNPR: 10%
PANW: 300%
ANET: 450%

So Cisco is losing to the wide market only very little, and is
outperforming other SP vendors (Huawei excluded). So the market
doesn't entirely agree with your assertion of user base attrition.

... I think the question was about loyal customers. Cisco know how to drum up new business, and they know how to increase cash output from existing business. But none of this suggests that this business is loyal.

There does come a time where you can't keep adding new business, to keep showing growth. Unless, of course, you buy everything up and grow that way, which we know Cisco love to do. But even that has a shelf life. Dodge it as you may, but eventually, you need to provide value to the paying customer base, and that always catches up with you.

Mark.
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