On Thu, 2007-01-25 at 21:40 -0600, Matt Gokey wrote:
> terry mcintyre wrote:
> > let's step back a bit and define terms. How do we define "a linear 
> > improvement in Go"?
> Don can correct me if I'm wrong,
> 
> The hypothesis is: For any player rating each doubling of thinking time 
> creates a rating increase by a fixed constant value.
> 
> > 
> > Would that be a linear increase in ELO points, or what?
> Yes, but I suppose any presumably valid rating system.
> 
> Of course this is an approximation since both rating systems and 
> thinking effectiveness are not precise measures.

ELO ratings are a very convenient statistical mechanism to predict
performance between any 2 players.  If you are 200 ELO higher than
someone, you are expected to win about 3 out of 4 games.   

Although I claimed a linear improvement in ELO for each factor of X
time increase,  I do believe there is a very gradual fall-off as
you get closer to perfection.     This has been shown empirically
with chess.    It follows that this would happen in GO too.   I
believe the fall-off in go is much more gradual (just the opposite
naturally of what many on this group are claiming)  because it's
a richer game strategically.  

- Don



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