Eric Boesch wrote:

By the way, does anybody know of any nifty tools or heuristics for
efficient probabilistic multi-parameter optimization? In other words,
like multi-dimensional optimization, except instead of your function
returning a deterministic value, it returns the result of a Bernoulli
trial, and the heuristic uses those trial results to converge as
rapidly as possible to parameter values that roughly maximize the
success probability. The obvious approach is to cycle through all
dimensions in sequence, treating it as a one-dimensional optimization
problem -- though the best way to optimize in one dimension isn't
obvious to me either -- but just as with the deterministic version of
optimization, I assume it's possible to do better than that. It might
be fun problem to play with, but if good tools already exist then it
wouldn't be very productive for me to waste time reinventing the
broken wheel.
RSPSA:
http://www.sztaki.hu/~szcsaba/papers/rspsa_acg.pdf

Levente Kocsis, Csaba Szepesvari, Mark H.M. Winands

Abstract. Most game programs have a large number of parameters that
are crucial for their performance. While tuning these parameters by hand
is rather di±cult, successful applications of automatic optimisation al-
gorithms in game programs are known only for parameters that belong
to certain components (e.g. evaluation-function parameters). The SPSA
(Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation) algorithm is an
attractive choice for optimising any kind of parameters of a game pro-
gram, both for its generality and its simplicity. It's disadvantage is that
it can be very slow. In this article we propose several methods to speed
up SPSA, in particular, the combination with RPROP, using common
random numbers, antithetic variables and averaging. We test the result-
ing algorithm for tuning various types of parameters in two domains,
poker and LOA. From the experimental study, we conclude that using
SPSA is a viable approach for optimisation in game programs, especially
if no good alternative exists for the types of parameters considered.

Rémi
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