1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
A - - O - - - - - - 
B X X X O X - - - - 
C O O X O X X - - - 
D O - O X X - X X - 
E - O O O X X O X X 
F - X O - X O O O X 
G - X O - X O O - O 
H O X O - X X O O - 
J - - - O X - X O - 
O to play

I analyzed this position as a loss for O, as follows:

  O has 22 points at left, and will gain 1 point from F4/G4/H4
  O has 13 points at right, with a Ko to potentially gain 2
  O has two ways to win: the Ko on J6/J7, or gain two of F4/G4/H4

Since H4 is sente for X, O should start with H4. This looks winning
for O because O will gain another point from F4/G4. Unfortunately,
X can win both F4 and G4 by using his doomed stones on F2.
Some variations: J2-J3-F1-E1-F4-G1-G4, and J2-F1-G1-E1-F4-J3-G4.

If H4 does not win, then O must start his ko immediately with J6.
X has ko threats with H9, H4, E1 (or F1). O has Ko threats with
A4 and then A2 and H4 (which threatens to win by taking *two* of
the dame from F4/G4/H4.

Since X has more ko threats, it seems like O should not win.
Extensive simulations supported this theory.

But now I have a new version of Pebbles, and it says that O should win.

What do you think?

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