> "Determining the best move is tricky, however. The most natural > approach would be to pick the move with the highest probability of > leading to a win. But this is usually too risky. For example, a move > with 7 wins out of 10 trials may have the highest odds of winning (70 > percent), but because this number comes from only 10 trials, the > uncertainty is high. A move with 65,000 wins out of 100,000 trials > (65 percent) is a safer bet. This suggests a different strategy: > > Choose the move with the largest number of wins. And this is indeed > the standard approach." > > Really? Changing the example, what if the 65,000 wins were out of > 650,000? (1% win rate vs. 70% win rate), then does it always make > sense to choose the path with the most number of moves?
If you had a choice between a 1% 65,000-wins move and a 70% 7-wins move, MCTS will keep exploring the 70% move, until it either reaches 65,001 wins, and can be chosen, or the winning percentage comes down to 1% also. BTW, that implies it would be very difficult to ever reach the situation you describe, as 1% win rate moves wouldn't be given 650,000 trials (unless all other moves on the board are equally bad, i.e. the game is clearly lost). Darren -- Darren Cook, Software Researcher/Developer My new book: Data Push Apps with HTML5 SSE Published by O'Reilly: (ask me for a discount code!) http://shop.oreilly.com/product/0636920030928.do Also on Amazon and at all good booksellers! _______________________________________________ Computer-go mailing list Computer-go@dvandva.org http://dvandva.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/computer-go
