-Caveat Lector- from: http://www.rsvlonline.net/futurecasts <A HREF="http://www.rsvlonline.net/futurecasts/Blattpage.html">Blattpage</A> ----- FUTURECASTS by Blatt Homepage 21st Century futurecast Economic futurecast Government futurecast International futurecast Vol. 1, No. 1, Aug. 1, 1998 So, who is Dan Blatt, anyway? � Dan Blatt was a financial columnist for several business newspapers, headed by the Miami Review, between 1972 and 1984, and author of the spectacularly prescient book, Dollar Devaluation, in 1967. In these writings, he accurately predicted and explained the economic and financial twists and turns of those turbulent years. � Dan Blatt, Brooklyn College, '59, and Harvard Law School, '62, has 30 years experience working in and writing about the operations of government agencies. He has probably had his fingers on more parts of the belly of the beast than anyone outside of the General Accounting Office. So, you may ask, what has he done for us lately? � This web page is an answer to that question. � The forecasts written a quarter of a century ago were, of necessity, filled with gloomy forebodings. However, this web page is a joy to write; it is filled with great expectations. Herein, we start with a series of long range futurecasts, for the entire 21st century. First, a 21st Century futurecast, based on a Gospel of massively accelerating rates of technological change. Second, an Economic futurecast of a cornucopia of material prosperity. Third, a Government futurecast reflecting the manifold problems inevitably flowing from the inherent managerial ineptness of governments as they confront successively larger waves of technological change. Fourth, an International futurecast for further advances, despite continued dangers and temporary setbacks, for the essential American economic and political virtues of entrepreneurial capitalism, multiparty democracy, limited government, and individual liberty. Coming soon, a near futurecast; the coming recession should be mild. Please return to our Homepage and e-mail your name, e-mail address and comments. Copyright 1998 Daniel Blatt ===== 21st CENTURY FUTURECAST: THE GOSPEL OF CHANGE Accelerating Rates of Change: The key to understanding the 21st century is a rate of technological change that will be twice as fast as that of the 20th century. By the end of the next century, the force of change will reach tidal wave proportions. " Flexibility: This means that static, inflexible entities will have trouble just holding their own. Most will be swept away by the end of the century, leaving an economic, political and ideological landscape that will be unrecognizable to those of us living at the beginning of the century. " Opportunity: The world will be dominated by the flexible, the opportunistic, the entrepreneurial. Accelerating rates of change means a rising flood of new opportunities. It doesn't matter if opportunities are missed; ten more just as good are already rolling in with the tide. " The Wave of the Future: During the 20th century, many political and intellectual leaders were pessimistic of the nation's future. Many feared that fascism was "the wave of the future." When fascism was defeated, there were those who thought that communism and socialism were "the wave of the future." Surprise! Surprise! It was capitalism that turned out to be the wave of the future flowing out of the 20th century. Confirming our faith in economic freedom, the 20th century turned out to be the American Century. " Government Economic Controls: We start the 21st century with mixtures of entrepreneurial capitalism, welfare capitalism, and autocratic capitalism vying for supremacy. Leadership groups in the political and intellectual spheres prefer state-dominated and controlled economic systems that leave major levers of economic power in political hands where they can be used for political and/or ideological purposes. These leadership groups are powerful and articulate. However, their policies are wrong, and their victories will lead to many miseries for the people they ostensibly act for. The Government futurecast for the 21st Century is that government will certainly have much more to do, but it will remain as inherently inefficient as ever. The battle over how much government is necessary or desirable will rage on unabated. " Entrepreneurial Capitalism: Entrepreneurial capitalism is the wave of the future for the 21st century. To prosper, entrepreneurial capitalism must have an environment that includes a substantial degree of individual liberty, which can only be safeguarded by multiparty democracy and limited government. " The Four Pillars: The International futurecast is that the 21st century will see the worldwide triumph of all four economic and political pillars of the American Way of Life: economic freedom (capitalism), political freedom (multiparty democracy), limited government (checks and balances on governmental powers, especially property rights and an independent judiciary), and individual liberty (legally enforceable individual rights). " Another American Century: The 21st century will be more the American Century than was the 20th century. Statist protectionist and welfare approaches will hold back European progress, and limits on labor mobility will diminish the benefits obtainable from commercial and monetary union. Autocratic capitalism will smother the progress of Asia's vast multitudes. Only by becoming more like the United States will the nations of Europe and Asia be able to keep up with the United States. " The Gospel: The Economic futurecast for the 21st century is for a cornucopia of material prosperity for those nations that adopt and properly adapt to their own characteristics the fundamental virtues of the American political and economic system. The Gospel of the 21st century is Change, Opportunity, and the Triumph of the American Way of Life! " Setbacks: As in the 20th century, progress will not always be easy, peaceful, or without major setbacks along the way. Such setbacks, however, should be nowhere near as devastating as those that had to be overcome in the 20th century. " Minority Majority: The United States will no longer be a majority white nation. However, this will not matter, since it will remain a clearly majority American nation. The "melting pot" will triumph once again, easily. " A Miracle in Boston: The Gods of Baseball: will at last remove their pitiless curse from the Boston Red Sox. They will cease devising malign punishments for its fans, grant forgiveness for its original sin (trading the Babe), and permit Boston to win a World Series. ===== GOVERNMENT IN THE 21ST CENTURY: INEFFICIENCY COMPOUNDED Homepage 21st Century futurecast Economic futurecast International futurecast To understand developments expected in government and politics during the 21st century, two of the immutable laws of government management must be kept in mind. Inherent Inefficiency: 1) Government management is INHERENTLY inefficient: Even the best of managers will operate with far less efficiency in a government program than in a private program. �Government managers, at best, lack the tools essential to good management, such as profit incentives, meaningful accounting statements, profit-and-loss statements, and sales charts. �Government managers lack the bracing spurs of competition and the right to fail. �Government managers are also subject to a bewildering array of conflicting political, legal and bureaucratic imperatives far vaster and stronger than those applicable in even the largest of private economic entities. " A Negative Learning Curve Privatization and deregulation are things that governments are now doing, but only after they screwed up so badly that they didn't know what else to do. GOVERNMENT IS A BIG MARSHMALLOW. IT HAS PRACTICALLY NO CAPACITY TO PREVENT WASTE, FRAUD AND ABUSE IN THE CONSUMPTION OF ITS RESOURCES. 2) Government management has a NEGATIVE learning curve: If a government program involves much more than merely taking money in and issuing it to designated recipients on the basis of objective criteria, it must become increasingly inefficient over time. Nationalized economic entities that worked tolerably well in the 1950s and 1960s were hopeless economic basket cases by the 1980s. Germans are properly renowned for their managerial efficiency, but not even they could keep the socialist economy of East Germany from utter collapse. Federal banking regulations, viewed as one of the proudest achievements of the New Deal, fell apart in the 1980s. Privatization and deregulation are things that governments are now doing, but only after they screwed up so badly that they didn't know what else to do. Politicians and bureaucrats do not willingly give up control of levers of power. The history of the 20th century is the history of the overwhelming failures of government management. �The longer any government program of any complexity exists, the more it will lose priority to programs that are new or newly emphasized. �The longer any government program of any complexity exists, the more it must become encrusted with conditions, some intrinsic to the program, but others collateral or totally extraneous to the program, that sap its resources. Government activities are subject to a bewildering array of requirements for due process administrative hearings and legal review, reports and inspections, and whole volumes of regulations governing contracts with private entities. They are subject to planning cycles and cycles for authority requests and authority approvals, appropriation requests and appropriation approvals, up and down long chains of bureaucratic command. Government contractors must include the costs of over two dozen special clauses requiring such things as special acco unting procedures, special subcontracting procedures and requirements, preferences for domestic suppliers and favored groups, prevailing union wage requirements, and reporting and inspection requirements. As a result, government contracts cost from 25% - to - 33% more than the same work performed by the same contractors for private purchasers. �The longer any government program of any complexity exists, the more private individuals and entities learn how to take advantage of its activities. �The complexity of government regulatory efforts expands inexorably until they choke the industry regulated or inhibit competition. There is a never ending cycle of regulatory efforts causing private responses which require further regulatory efforts, etc. This cycle is further stimulated by the natural changes that occur in pertinent conditions over time. �Unionization increasingly undermines the efficience, such as it is, of the civil service. �Government is a big marshmallow. It has practically no capacity to prevent waste, fraud and abuse in the consumption of its resources. Each scandal forces government to wrap its activities in bureaucratic red tape to at least give the appearance of protecting the public fisc. During the 21st century: Even when government is a necessary part of the answer, it is always a part of the problem. 1) An ever-increasing government role will inevitably be required as population densities and levels of technological complexity increase: There is, unfortunately, no simplistic answer to the question of whether and when government is the problem and whether and when it is the answer. Even when it is a necessary part of the answer, it is always a part of the problem. " Protectionist policies that restrain foreign or domestic commerce pose a primary threat to the nation's prosperity 2) Big business and big labor will be increasingly important, and increasingly dangerous: Business must have the freedom and flexibility needed for success, and must be permitted to fail. However, it must not be permitted to restrain competition. Unions must be powerful enough to protect worker rights, but must not be powerful enough to restrain commerce, either domestic or foreign. Government policy in these areas will have profound economic consequences, for good or ill. Government policy will be unlikely to achieve the right balances for any length of time, and will continue to be a source of intense political conflict throughout the century. " The public will tend to vote for those who promise them benefits from the public treasury. 3) Demagoguery will remain the strongest force in democratic politics: The public will tend to vote for those who promise them benefits from the public treasury. The "Politics of Envy" works, constantly feeding redistributionist fervor. There will never be more than a handful of "small government" conservatives in Washington. " Parkinson's Law will continue to govern government growth. 4) Growing prosperity will spin off vast resources for government programs: The Economic futurecast for the 21st century is for a cornucopia of material prosperity. The financial burdens imposed by the vast debts incurred during the wars of the 20th century will rapidly diminish as the economy grows. Parkinson's Law will continue to govern government growth. " Government corruption must inevitably grow with the growth of government. 5) The more that government tries to do for the public, the more its esteem with the public will decline: The 21st Century futurecast for accelerating rates of change means that the shortcomings of government policymaking will be increasingly exposed. Evidence of government ineptness and sheer stupidity will become increasingly apparent in everyday life. As government continuously expands its activities, outside entities will increase their efforts to influence government. They will, of course, succeed, by means both legal and illegal. Government corruption must inevitably grow with the growth of government. Government itself will become the primary sociological problem of the 21st century. " It's the economy, stupid. &nbs6) Recessions will continue to pose the only real threat to incumbent politicians: Only when the extent of government mismanagement threatens economic growth will the public turn at least temporarily to politicians who profess a desire for reductions in government; only recessions provide the political cover for some reform of government programs. Elimination of government programs will remain a rarity. " Philosopher Kings on the Bench. 7) Judicial activism will reach epidemic proportions: Top law schools routinely instruct their students that the Constitution is a malleable thing that lawyers and judges should feel free to alter as they see fit. Congress, too, is at fault. It enacts vague statutes, leaving it to the courts and administrative agencies to provide the precise meanings and boundaries of important provisions. The courts will become increasingly recognized as just another political organ of government, control over which various interests must struggle. No interest group will feel any obligation to respect the precedents of courts controlled by other interest groups. " This means that"Rule of law" will increasingly be replaced by "rule of men" for politically controversial rulings. Public respect for the Judiciary, for the unelected "Philosopher Kings" on the bench, will decline sharply. When the Supreme Court becomes widely perceived as just another political arm of government, there may be serious efforts at Constitutional amendment to impose some checks and balances. Limiting Justices to a term of office, after which they would have to seek election, is a technique used by some states. Giving Congress, perhaps by some super majority vote, the right to reject decisions on Constitutional questions, is another possibility. " Those who seek to permanently divide the American people on the basis of ethnicity or race, for narrow ideological or political advantage, are beneath contempt, and will fail. 8) The American melting pot will again triumph: Assimilation is the ultimate victory and crowning glory of the American Way of Life. It is an essential advantage that nations in the Western Hemisphere enjoy over nations on other continents. Immigration from its adversaries has provided the United States with many benefits, not least of which is a potent propaganda weapon. Official allied propaganda can be disparaged, but no adversary can distort or hide the obvious success of expatriates who immigrated to the United States, many of whom routinely send back financial aid or return to display obvious financial success. Assimilation will continue to triumph over narrow ethnic and racial politics and ideology. " Despite the inevitable existence of some prejudice, the nation is broadly accepting of its new ethnic and racial minorities. The second and third generation young will continue to find infinitely greater opportunities in the broader national economy and culture than can be found in narrow and increasingly dispersed ethnic and racial communities. " Love will conquer all; intermarriage rates will assure that we are truly one nation. Even black-white intermarriage rates will be substantially higher by the end of the century. Efforts to maintain diverse cultural heritages will remain clearly valuable, but will be increasingly difficult. Those who seek to go further, to permanently divide the American people on the basis of ethnicity or race, for narrow ideological or political advantage, are beneath contempt, and will fail. " The keys to prosperity are to be found in the fundamental economic and political virtues of the American Way of Life. 9) The fundamental economic and political virtues of the American system will continue to spread to other nations: The International futurecast is that economic freedom (capitalism), political freedom (multiparty democracy), limited government (checks and balances on government powers, especially property rights and an independent judiciary), and individual liberty (legally enforceable individual rights), will be forced on reluctant politicians around the world as the only practical arrangements in a world of accelerating technological change. Capitalist markets are inexorable; they always eventually win. The great material prosperity obtainable during the 21st century will be realized by only those nations that adopt and properly adapt to their own conditions the fundamental economic and political virtues of the American Way of Life. Please return to our Homepage and e-mail your name, e-mail address and comments. Copyright 1998 Daniel Blatt. ----- Aloha, He'Ping, Om, Shalom, Salaam. Em Hotep, Peace Be, Omnia Bona Bonis, All My Relations. Adieu, Adios, Aloha. Amen. Roads End Kris DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. Proselyzting propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance�not soapboxing! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory', with its many half-truths, misdirections and outright frauds is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRL gives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credeence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. 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