-Caveat Lector- From: http://defence-data.com/current/page3614.htm US DoD to put $6.6 billion into National Missile Defence January 21st, 1999 US Secretary of Defence William S. Cohen has formally announced DoD plans to allocate additional funds to National Missile Defence (NMD) and Theatre Missile Defence (TMD) programmes to meet the growing ballistic missile threats from rogue states to US forces deployed overseas and potentially to US territory. This announcement was signalled by Pentagon spokesman Ken Bacon a fortnight ago. The new budget will request additions of $6.6 billion to current NMD funding levels for a total of $10.5 billion for NMD through fiscal year 2005. No decision to deploy a national missile defence system will be made before 2000. In theatre missile defence, the new budget will continue flight testing of the Theatre High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) programme and add money to the Navy Theatre Wide programme in order to allow accelerated deployment of an upper tier system by 2007. "The Department of Defence has long worked to ensure that our NMD development programme was properly funded. But until now, the Department has budgeted no funds to support a possible deployment of a limited NMD system," Secretary Cohen said. "Since we intend to make a critical decision in June 2000 regarding deployment, the budget we will submit in February will increase NMD by $6.6 billion, including the cost associated with NMD deployment over the Future Years Defence Plan. Last summer, the DoD embarked upon a ballistic missile defence programme review that assessed the evolving missile defence environment. The review addressed both the expanding threats from medium-range ballistic missiles and the emerging threat from long-range missiles. In particular the launch on o August 31 last year of the North Korean Taepo-Dong 1 missile demonstrated important aspects of intercontinental missile development, including multiple-stage separation, and unexpectedly included the use of a third stage. The DoD has decided that the Taepo-Dong 1 test was another strong indicator that the United States would face a rogue nation missile threat. Cohen has ordered a Deployment Readiness Review summer 2000 in order to assess the NMD programme's progress and to provide information for a deployment decision. "Our deployment readiness programme has had two key criteria that must be satisfied before we could make a decision to deploy a limited National Missile Defence: there must be a threat to warrant the deployment, and our NMD development must have proceeded sufficiently so that we are technologically ready to deploy," Cohen said. "What we are saying today is that we now expect the first criterion will soon be met, and technological readiness will be the primary remaining criterion." Asked if the proposed deployment affected the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty Cohen said that the US was studying the terms of the ABM treaty, and were keeping the Russians informed of their intentions. Although he was confident that the matter could be resolved amicably Cohen pointed out that there was a clause in the treaty which allowed either side to withdraw at six months notice 'in the national interest'. Secretary Cohen also announced steps to advance the Theatre Missile Defence programme, which is designed to protect against short- and medium-range missiles. Money will be added to the Navy Theatre Wide programme to move it from the development to the acquisition phase. The land-based Theatre High Altitude Area Defence programme will continue flight testing. Both Navy Theatre Wide and THAAD will be examined after initial flight testing to determine system progress. In addition, the DoD is proposing to restructure the Medium Extended Air Defence System (MEADS) programme, a cooperative programme with Germany and Italy, to develop technologies for critical manoeuvre force protection requirements. REF XQQAS XQQEE XQQAR XQQSE ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ >From Kanwa Intell Review http://web.ica.net/~kanwa/english/index.html China Pursues The Strategy Of Advance Deterrence ---How To Look At The Participation Of Taiwan In The Tmd Plan ------------------------------------------------------------------------ <Picture>by NHK via Andrei Pinkov Through the Wenhui Paper of Hong Kong, China has issued a public threat that if Taiwan develops the TMD system, China will adjust its military arrangements. China has also hinted that it will carry out another military maneouver similar to the one of 1996. As the Chinese expert of strategic security affairs indicated to the KWIC reporter, China is trying to show the level of its deterrence in the military struggle against Taiwan for this new period of time through the demonstration of its adequate determination so as to prevent any possible hidden danger or threat. China seems to believe that if it does nothing in response to the TMD issue, then it is possible that the plan for the cooperation between Taiwan and the USA on the TMD will become a reality. However, the Chinese expert of strategic security affairs believe that the US inclusion of Taiwan under the TMD umbrella is equivalent to the increase in the US military interference in Taiwan affairs, thus placing Taiwan right within the sphere of the US military influence and providing those that advocate the independence of Taiwan with a permanent military asylum. According to the Chinese experts, this movement is of great political significance and China should make a response. The reason is that China believes that there exists a highly probable tendency of Taiwan’s acceptance of the TMD system and once it becomes a reality, it will cause China more corresponding investment and will make the peaceful solution to the issue of Taiwan more difficult to achieve. Besides, Taiwan’s acceptance of the TMD system will encourage the arms dealers from the other countries to once again enter the arms market of Taiwan and in the meantime, will form a military challenge to the advantage China owns through its possession of missiles. However, once this challenge comes to be of real decisive significance, China will take a military action. The TMD plan has sparked a heated dispute inside the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan. The Japanese commentator on the Chinese military affairs, Professor Hiramatsu Sigeo, indicated to the KWIC reporter that the primary reason for Japan to develop the TMD system is the missile threat from North Korea Though the Japanese Defence Ministry has repeatedly told China that the TMD is an agreement on the bilateral defence cooperation, yet Taiwan’s involvement in the relevant research will make it a multilateral development cooperation in reality. The current situation is in this direction. Japan can not sidestep it. On this issue, Japan should express its position more frankly to China. In public, Japan’s pretexts such as dealing with the missile threat from North Korea and the agreement on the bilateral cooperation will not change substantially. As Professor Ronald Morse of the University of Maryland, who maintains a close contact with the Pentagon, stressed to the KWIC reporter earlier, the USA will first implement its TMD plan in eastern Asia. Once Taiwan gets involved, Japan will have no choice at all. Meanwhile, Taiwan may get involved in different ways and the USA may also provide different forms of protection. If necessary, the US navy may even provide the direct TMD support to Taiwan. ~~~~~~~~~~~~ >From Kanwa What Is The Criterion For The Judgment Of Taiwan's Participation In The Tmd Plan? ------------------------------------------------------------------------ <Picture>by KWIC (KWIC news Jan.14 Toronto) At present, the focus of controversy that merits attention is by what criterion Taiwan can be considered a member of the TMD system. The possible choices Taiwan may take include 1. Taiwan will make a direct investment, participate in the relevant research, purchase the whole set of NTMD operational system, and rely on the intelligence service provided by the satellite of the US army; 2. Taiwan will not participate in any relevant research, but will eventually purchase the whole set of NTMD system, and link it to the C3I system of the US army for the purpose of the military operations; 3. Taiwan will purchase part of the NTMD system and the other relevant operational systems, including the Patriot 3 missiles and sea-based phased array radar, and will receive the intelligence service from the US satellite in the time of war; and 4. Taiwan will purchase part of the NTMD system and will accomplish the operational missions all on its own. Professor Hiramatsu Sigeo of Japan and the Chinese security experts all agree that if Taiwan participates in the relevant TMD programs in the form of direct investment and purchases the whole set of system, China will make an extremely strong response. According to the above Chinese source, China will make an appropriate response if Taiwan purchases only part of the system such as the ground-to-air interceptive missiles, depending on the specific situations. Especially from the previous experience, they believe that the USA will still hold itself back to a certain degree as it does not want to let the actual military strength between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait out of balance. It is evident that at this time, China remains in the process of evaluating the situation. The KWIC believes that the possibility can not be ruled out that China will take some preventative measures at an appropriate time in the form of military maneuvers. In the meantime, with the consideration of the defensive nature of the TMD system, it is impossible for the Chinese military authorities to mention in the same breath Taiwan’s development of the TMD and its development of nuclear weapons. The latter has become a factor that may contribute to the possible Chinese military solution to the issue of Taiwan ( Kanwa news ). ~~~~~~~~~~~~ A<>E<>R The only real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes but in having new eyes. -Marcel Proust + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Forwarded as information only; no endorsement to be presumed + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. section 107, this material is distributed without charge or profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving this type of information for non-profit research and educational purposes only. DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. Proselyzting propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance—not soapboxing! 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