-Caveat Lector- http://www.campaignline.com/odds/odds.cfm
National US President PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES 2004 GENERAL ELECTION -- ALL CANDIDATES George W. Bush favored over the opposition field, 3 to 2 (60% chance he will be re- elected) ANALYSIS: While GOP victories in the 2002 elections were, to a large extent, an expression of support for Bush's personal leadership -- and a repudiation of sorts of national Democratic leadership, it doesn't necessarily improve his already favorable chancs to win re-election. Now Bush has responsibility for both international and domestic economic policies, and he needs to show that he can deliver on some tough, complicated issues. DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION 2004 PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES 2004 GENERAL ELECTION -- ALL CANDIDATES George W. Bush favored over the opposition field, 3 to 2 (60% chance he will be re- elected) DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION 2004 First Tier: Sen. Hillary Clinton (NY), 4 to 1 (25% chance; upgraded from 16.7% Dec. 15 and from 14.3% chance Oct. 16) Sen. John Kerry (MA), 6 to 1 (14.3%; upgraded Dec. 15 from 10% chance and Nov. 6 from 7.7%) Sen. Joe Lieberman (CT), 7 to 1 (12.5% chance; upgraded Dec. 15 from 9.1% chance from 7.7% chance Oct. 16) Sen. John Edwards (NC), 9 to 1 (10% chance; upgraded Dec. 15 from 7.7% chance) U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt (MO), 12 to 1 (7.7% chance; upgraded Dec. 15 from 6.7% chance) Sen. Tom Daschle (SD), 15 to 1 (6.3% chance; upgraded Dec. 15 from 4.8% chance; downgraded Nov. 6 from 6.3% chance) Second Tier: Gov. Howard Dean (VT), 25 to 1 (4% chance; upgraded from 3.2% chance Nov. 6) Sen. Joe Biden (DE), 50 to 1 (2% chance) Third Tier: Ex-Sen. Bill Bradley (NJ), 100 to 1 (1% chance) Sen. Russ Feingold (WI), 100 to 1 (1% chance) Gov. Gray Davis (CA), 100 to 1 (less than 1% chance) Former Sen. Gary Hart (CO), 100 to 1 (less than 1% chance) Sen. Chris Dodd (CT), 200 to 1 (less than 1% chance) Gov. Tom Vilsack (IA), 200 to 1 (less than 1% chance) U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (OH), 500 to 1 (less than 1% chance) Rev. Al Sharpton (NY), 1,000 to 1 (less than 1%) Someone else, 10 to 1 (9.1% chance; upgraded from 3% chance Dec. 15) ANALYSIS: Now that Al Gore is out, this race is wide open with no clear frontrunner - - unless Hillary Clinton can be coaxed into running. Kerry seems to have fared best in recent weeks and is positioned to emerge as a formidable contender. Gore's withdrawal puts Lieberman in the race, and the former VP nominee's poll numbers should rise accordingly, at least for a while. Edwards is a strong campaigner with the best chance of building a Southern/black base, critical if there is no major African American candidate. The congressional leaders lack energy and public enthusiasm at this point, hurt by the 2002 elections, although Gephardt now has an opening to put labor together. Watch for new contenders, the void is large and could attract new faces. Published by Votenet Solutions, Inc © 1999- 2002 Campaigns & Elections Magazine. All Rights Reserved. A<:>E<:>R ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Forwarded as information only; everything sent has to stand on its own merits, not on my recommendation. Dissenting ideas are the health of the American system. A<:>E<:>R + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. section 107, this material is distributed without charge or profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving this type of information for non-profit research and educational purposes only. + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + The only real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes but in having new eyes. -Marcel Proust + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + "Do not believe in anything simply because you have heard it. Do not believe simply because it has been handed down for many generations. Do not believe in anything simply because it is spoken and rumored by many. 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