-Caveat Lector- ----- Original Message -----
> Arab News > SAUDI ARABIA'S FIRST ENGLISH LANGUAGE DAILY > > > -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------ > > > Editorial: Schlieffen plan > 14 January 2003 > Published on 14 January 2003 > > The twentieth century, which was to prove the > bloodiest in history, began with a timetable. The > Schlieffen plan called for the mustering of one and a > half million German troops on the Belgian and French > frontiers. This vast deployment in 1914 at the start > of World War I, was made possible by precise railway > timetabling. When, in the hours before this most > pointless of wars actually began, the German Kaiser > had second thoughts, he was told it was too late to > stop the vast synchronized movement of men and > materiel. In the next four years, 10 million people > were to die, 20 million wounded and the seeds sown for > further conflict which would cost many millions more > dead. > > Is the United States operating its own Schlieffen plan > at the start of the 21st century ? The military > build-up against Iraq continues steadily but the > reasons for a war do not. Everything depends upon the > findings of the UNMOVIC inspectors in Iraq. Now a > senior official at the International Atomic Energy > Agency (IAEA) with whom the UNMOVIC inspectors are > working, has said that neither his organization nor > UNMOVIC believes that comprehensive inspections will > be completed within a year. > > If this is true, it seems unthinkable that the United > States and its unquestioning British ally will be > prepared to keep a large attack force in the region > for such a period, let alone maintain that force at a > level of preparedness which will enable it to act at a > moment's notice. On top of this, US diplomats would > need to make prodigious efforts to maintain the > reluctant acquiescence of other countries, which have > been persuaded to support an Iraq attack in certain > circumstances. Even if Washington had agreed > unequivocally that no conflict would begin without the > express approval of the United Nations, it is hard to > see how the current military build-up could be > sustained for a full year. > > As ever, we come back to the half-hearted US support > for the weapons inspectors. Having insisted that they > be allowed to return to Iraq with a tougher and far > wider-ranging mandate than before, now they are back > on those terms, Washington appears to see them as an > obstacle to its real plan. It seems highly probable > that the Bush White House was calculating on an > outright Iraqi refusal to accept UNMOVIC's return. > When Saddam gave in, the Americans lost their first > excuse to attack. > > Then the US administration grumbled over the details > in the Iraqi weapons declaration made under Resolution > 1441. UNMOVIC was not happy either, but decided that > it was a document from which it could work and so > continued with its inspection program. Now the > Washington line is that UNMOVIC is never going to find > anything and unless Saddam stops playing games and > voluntarily hands over the weaponry which the US > insists that he has, the attack goes in. An added > refinement to this aggressive bullhorn diplomacy is > the often repeated statement that Washington wants > anyway to see an end to Saddam. Yet if Saddam does > indeed have any weapons of mass destruction, these are > his last protection from political oblivion or worse. > Even now prosecutors in The Hague are probably > preparing the evidence against him and his henchmen. > If Saddam surrenders his supposed weaponry, he is also > surrendering his regime. > > His only possible avenue of escape is to keep the > UNMOVIC teams at work. While that is happening, US > aggression may falter and world opinion against war > harden. > > All this however may be valueless if the US is > embarked upon its own carefully choreographed > Schlieffen-style plan of attack, which may soon become > too far advanced to stop. > > > > > -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------ > Copyright � 2003 ArabNews All Rights Reserved. > > > <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/";>www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. 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