-Caveat Lector-

     NATO says to expect "months."  4-6 billion bucks?  Oh, just take it out
of "petty cash," i.e., the feds' Social Security surplus slush fund.  Or push
for more cutbacks in education, health, and welfare for our own "underclass,"
virtually refugees already ...


Conflict May Cost Over $1 Billion Monthly

By TOM RAUM
.c The Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Congress and the White House are sparring over the scope
of a still-evolving emergency spending bill to pay for the conflict in the
Balkans, with Republicans pressing for more money to meet some of the
Pentagon's long-term needs.

The air campaign alone, which began on March 24, cost the United States $600
million in the first three weeks and will cost an additional $1 billion a
month if sustained, congressional budget analysts said.

White House budget director Jack Lew said the Clinton administration was
``very close'' to putting the finishing touches on its measure after he met
late Thursday with leaders from House and Senate appropriations committees.

Administration officials had suggested the bill would be in the vicinity of
$4 billion, but congressional aides close to the process are now suggesting
it will probably be higher -- at least $5 billion. That figure will also
include direct humanitarian aid to refugees and assistance to countries in
the Balkans that are taking them in.

It may also include more money for the ongoing peacekeeping operation in
Bosnia and to help pay for last winter's airstrikes against Iraq.

Republicans, in general, were pressing for a more generous package than the
one the administration is considering.

``There is a stretching thin of our overall capacity,'' House Appropriations
Committee Chairman C.W. Bill Young, R-Fla., told Secretary of State Madeleine
Albright at a hearing. ``We have to do more than just replace the bullets and
the missiles,'' he said.

Some Republicans have suggested that the spending bill should also contain
money to shore up what they see as declining military readiness around the
world. Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, R-Miss., has even suggested it
could become a vehicle for paying for an across-the-board 4.8 percent
military pay raise approved earlier this year by the Senate, but for which
funds have yet to be provided.

Whatever the final cost, it appears likely that Congress will agree to take
it out of the newly found budget surplus, rather than from tapping into other
accounts. The surplus in the current fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, is
projected at about $110 billion.

Democrats and Republicans have both pledged to save the surplus to help ease
future financial problems of the Social Security system. Republicans also
want to use some of it for a tax cut.

Asked if Congress could finance the operation through the usual spending
process, and within existing budget guidelines, Senate Budget Committee
Chairman Pete Domenici, R-N.M., said: ``No, we can't. What we need for Kosovo
has got to be an emergency declaration.''

When a spending bill is designated as ``emergency,'' it means that the money
for it comes out of the surplus, as in the current financial situation, or
adds to the deficit in the years when the government operates in the red.

The Congressional Budget Office said its estimates of the cost of the air war
did not include humanitarian aid, or certain procurement costs, such as
replacing the F-117 stealth fighter that was lost. That aircraft is no longer
being manufactured.

CBO Director Dan Crippen said that sending on ground troops -- an option the
administration says it is not currently considering -- could cost an
additional $200 million a month, assuming a force of one heavy division plus
support, or about 27,000 troops.

Meanwhile, the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, an independent
research organization, issued a report that was generally in line with the
CBO report. It put the price tag for U.S. participation for the first three
weeks of the air campaign at $400 million to $600 million.

It said that, with 300 more warplanes and 24 Apache attack helicopters on the
way, the campaign will soon be costing $25 million to $65 million a day.

The administration had hoped to get the spending bill to Congress by week's
end. But the timetable appeared to be slipping into early next week.

For one thing, both Young, the House Appropriations chairman, and Senate
Appropriations Committee Chairman Ted Stevens, R-Alaska, are part of a
congressional delegation leaving today for a weekend tour of military and
refugee sites in the Balkans.

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