-Caveat Lector-

10 Mar 03

War in Iraq - logical, perhaps inevitable, but senseless and ultimately
pointless.

President George W. Bush says regime change in Iraq is necessary for the war
on terrorism - and that is probably true. In the first days after 9/11 he
gave some clues.

He said something about going after those who finance, train and/or harbor
terrorists. At the top of this list would be Saudi Arabia, but for good
reason he did not name names.

Then there was the statement "either you are with us or you are against us."
That sounds stupid unless you suspect it may be directed at the Saudi ruling
royal family, which knows where the terrorist funding is coming from - their
country.

So why not attack Saudi Arabia and not Iraq? Because we need their oil to
maintain our economy and military might - unless and until we have a source
of oil to replace it should they retaliate by cutting off our supply.

That is where Iraq comes in - the USA needs that oil to flow west BEFORE it
can go after the terrorists and their funding in Saudi Arabia.

Secondarily, that oil must flow west in order to prevent it from flowing
east - into China, primarily, and probably Russia as well. Add the fact that
France is Iraq's biggest economic partner, and the upcoming UN vote is
pretty easy to figure out.

Colin Powell now says he thinks he has a majority of the 15 security council
members on his side. Unfortunately, of the five permanent members with veto
power, the USA and UK will vote for him but France, China and Russia will
say nyet.

So if the resolution passes, France will probably exercise its veto power,
which means Russia and China won't have to use theirs.

Whereupon Bush will proceed with regime change nonetheless for the above
reasons, coalition or no coalition, not because he must, but because he can.

Although this scenario makes some sense, one possible alternative might be
to cut US defense spending by a third and use the $135 billion per year to
develop alternative energy sources.

However, since death, destruction and mayhem produce much higher corporate
profits than peace and prosperity, this probably will occur only when no
other alternative is possible. And since that day must come, energy
independence is the only goal ultimately worth debating.

Which may cause one to conclude: oil dependence and oil profits make cents,
not sense. The only thing more certain than war in Iraq is one day all the
oil will be gone, and war cannot change that.

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