-Caveat Lector-
Israel has been attempting to intimidate, bully and terrorize the Mideast into submission for six decades now, and with what results?
 
Will Bush's Israeli-directed strategy lead to the democratization and pacification of the Mideast, or to a wave of violent anti-Americanism that could last for centuries?
 
Is Bush a visionary genius in foreign affairs or something quite different?  Does he have a track record of leading grand ventures to a successful conclusion?  Are his advisers motivated by a rational concern for the American interest or by something else?
 
Will these policies lead to success or disaster for the Bush administration and the United States?
 
Stay tuned -- we should know soon enough, and probably before the next election.
 
One way for Americans to anticipate the outcome is to ask how they would react if they were invaded and occupied by a foreign power.  Human nature on these matters appears to be universal.
 
 
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U.S. Tough Tactics Risk Inflaming Iraq Insurgency
Tue November 18, 2003 10:13 AM ET

By Luke Baker

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - U.S. forces in Iraq have launched their fiercest military campaign since major combat ended in May, but experts fear the aggressive "show of force" may inflame an anti-American insurgency rather than douse it.

In the past 10 days, fighter jets have dropped 500 lb. (230 kg) bombs, satellite-guided missiles have been fired, and tanks have pounded suspected guerrilla hideouts in a display that may be spectacular but could ultimately backfire.

"I don't think this present campaign is going to produce what the Americans want, which is security on the ground for Iraqis and U.S. forces," said Phillip Mitchell of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

"It's only going to ensure that the population becomes more allied with the pro-Saddam, anti-American insurgency... The risk is that these sort of actions will actually inflame hatred."

The tougher line began earlier this month, after the downing of two helicopters -- a Chinook transporter and a Black Hawk -- in the space of five days with the loss of 22 soldiers.

In response, the 4th Infantry Division based around Saddam Hussein's hometown of Tikrit, 175 km (110 miles) north of Baghdad, launched Operation Ivy Cyclone, sending F-16s to bomb several abandoned warehouses.

At the same time, M1A1 tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles rumbled through the streets of the small city, where a curfew has been reimposed, and a taskforce of soldiers raided a handful of homes, rounding up some suspected Saddam loyalists.

HEAVY HAND

Lieutenant-Colonel Steve Russell, who commands the 1-22 Battalion of the 4th Infantry Division and has led many of the raids around Tikrit, declared the new, harder line a success and the right sort of tactics for the task at hand.

"We will not let these insurgents dance on our territory," he said after a midnight raid last week. "We need to maintain an offensive stance and let the enemy know that we will come down with a heavy hand when we want to."

Since Ivy Cyclone, U.S. forces have also launched Operation Iron Hammer in and around Baghdad, and Ivy Cyclone Two, which has involved firing GPS-guided missiles at suspected insurgent camps, including one on an island in the Tigris river.

Hazy green television images of the attacks, shot through night-vision lenses, have been broadcast worldwide and created the impression of a bold and intense new campaign.

But there so far appears to be relatively little to show for the new tactics in terms of the capture of high-ranking Saddam loyalists or intelligence on the minds behind the insurgency.

"These are operations of the 'search and destroy' type which are very spectacular and designed primarily to occupy television airtime for the U.S. public back home," said Francois Gere, director of France's Institute for Diplomacy and Defense.

"This is like using sledgehammers to swat flies. This is not how you fight guerrillas. For that, you need inside intelligence from the Iraqis themselves -- and these are just the type of operations which encourage people to think they are dealing with a brutal army of occupation," he said.

OFFICERS DEFEND OVERWHELMING FORCE

Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt, the newly appointed chief spokesman for U.S. forces in Iraq, defended the new policy on Monday, saying all operations had a specific military purpose with the intention of defeating, not intimidating, the enemy.

Using tanks and other heavy equipment "provides overwhelming fire power and gives us the capability to make the enemy realize he is overmatched and should surrender," he said.

But analysts say many moderate Iraqis who might have been won over by a "hearts and minds" campaign are feeling increasingly alienated.

"The very small percentage of Iraqis who are bent on killing U.S. and British forces will never change their minds, they are immune from the hearts and minds campaign," said Ellie Goldsworthy of Britain's Royal United Services Institute.

"If the American forces go down an openly belligerent route there is a risk that more and more Iraqis will take up the belligerent route. There is a risk that this will make the situation even more dangerous for U.S. forces on the ground." (Additional reporting by Peter Graff in London and Mark John in Paris)


 

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