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STRATFOR's
Global Intelligence Update
April 20, 1999
What Will U.S. Trade for Bin Laden
Summary:
The U.S. has expressed the belief that Osama bin Laden is
preparing more terrorist attacks -- a fear no doubt enhanced by
reports that a group affiliated with bin Laden has chemical and
biological weapons. While U.S. forces are reportedly encamped on
the Afghan border, the U.S. still needs Taleban help to capture
bin Laden. The question is, what does Washington have to offer
in return?
Analysis:
On April 14, Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia Karl
Inderfurth told a Senate panel that the U.S. is convinced that
Saudi terrorist Osama bin Laden is planning further attacks,
while Afghanistan's ruling Taleban, who have thus far provided
bin Laden with a safe haven, appear divided over whether or not
to hand bin Laden over to the U.S. "We feel very confident of
the charges we have made about bin Laden's active role in the
bombings that took place in East Africa, and we believe he is
planning further such terrorist action," Inderfurth said. "That
has given us a sense of urgency about bringing him to justice.
We believe the Taleban leadership is torn about how to deal with
him but they recognize that the cost of having him stay in
Afghanistan clearly outweighs over time the benefit of keeping
him there." Inderfurth then warned the Senate panel of a likely
upsurge in fighting in Afghanistan this spring. He said that,
"The Taleban seem to be readying their fighters for an all-out
blitz on the battlefield. Spring is the time when either the
fighting resumes or they take a different direction."
In related development, the London-based newspaper Al-Hayat ran a
story on April 19 about Ahmad Salama Mabrouk, a jailed member the
Egyptian militant group Al-Jihad. Al-Jihad is a member of bin
Laden's umbrella group International Islamic Front for Fighting
Jews and Crusaders (IIFFJC). Al-Hayat reported Mabrouk as saying
that not only does IIFFJC possess biological and chemical weapons
but it also is planning about "100 operations" against U.S. and
Israeli interests around the world. The report went on to state
that the details of these planned attacks were found on a
computer program, which was confiscated by the U.S. Central
Intelligence Agency (CIA) in September 1998 at the time Mabrouk
was taken into custody in Azerbaijan.
More than just expressing its fears, the U.S. may be prepared to
act on them. On April 15, the Afghan newspaper "Wahdat" reported
that the U.S. is setting up secret bases on the Afghan border to
launch an operation against bin Laden. The newspaper also
confirmed that the U.S. had established contacts with some
Taleban leaders to seek their help in a possible operation to
capture bin Laden. This is not the first time allegations have
surfaced that U.S. commandos or agents have attempted to nab bin
Laden. Nor is it the first time -- each previous abduction
attempt apparently failing -- that the conclusion has been
reached that the U.S. needs the Taleban's help if it hopes to
capture the terrorist.
In the past, the U.S. has hinted at offering the Taleban
diplomatic recognition in exchange for handing over bin Laden to
U.S. custody. Thus far, the Taleban have rejected this offer,
however helpful to the Taleban position U.S. diplomatic
recognition would be. They have remained good Moslem hosts, even
though many in the Taleban have begun expressing reservations
about harboring him. Moreover, the U.S. has kept its offer of
recognition at the officially-denied hint level, due to concerns
about the Taleban's fundamentalist Islamic social policies.
Still, the U.S. may once again be prepared to offer the Taleban
not only some form of recognition, but also economic incentives
such as pipeline contracts. Formalizing relations with the
Taleban would offer two potential benefits. Not only might the
U.S. get bin Laden, but recognition might forestall the Taleban's
Spring offensive. The U.S. would have a better chance -- if only
slightly -- to moderate Taleban policies and mediate some form of
government of national reconciliation if it recognizes the
Taleban before they either conquer the remainder of Afghanistan
or get deadlocked in a new round of intense warfare.
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