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--- Begin Message ----Caveat Lector- ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~--> <FONT COLOR="#000099">Buy Ink Cartridges or Refill Kits for your HP, Epson, Canon or Lexmark Printer at MyInks.com. Free s/h on orders $50 or more to the US & Canada. </FONT><A HREF="http://www.c1tracking.com/l.asp?cid=5511";><B>Click Here!</B></A><FONT COLOR="#000099"> </FONT><A HREF="http://us.click.yahoo.com/mOAaAA/3exGAA/qnsNAA/WfTolB/TM";><B>Click Here!</B></A> ---------------------------------------------------------------------~->By John Brimelow CBSMarketWatch Thursday, April 22, 2004 http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp? siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoosnap&guid=%7B5156846C%2DB1C3%2D439A%2DAF7B% 2DEEB86E95A8A8%7D& NEW YORK -- Gold is back below $400 -- but it may be about to perform its version of the Indian Rope Trick. Again. I first reported on this phenomenon in a piece in February, when gold had also broken below $400. Subsequently, of course, gold bounced back, to a high of $432 on March 31. Now we've returned to fun and games. Gold has come crashing down to test its 200-day moving average just below $390 Wednesday. Half that fall was in just 3 days last week. Gold shares have fallen 20 percent in the same period. There is gloom and despondency everywhere. And puzzlement. The return of measurable inflation at home -- mounting chaos and bloodshed in the Middle East -- shouldn't these be good for gold? But the market action is undeniably intimidating. As adroit traders Refco Research, currently the proud owners of an enormously profitable silver short, said of gold on their Web site Wednesday night: "Despite decent ... physical interest; terrorist incidents ... the prospects of an extremely tense summer, we cannot bring ourselves to think long until current downside momentum eases." My view: It will. The bears have inserted their paws (at least) into what is likely to be a very vicious trap. The critical factor: the news from India, the world's largest buyer. As I explained when gold got below $400 in early February, it is possible to figure out if India is actively importing gold by comparing the domestic price of gold with the appropriately timed world price. Bill Murphy's LeMetropoleCafe site carries my calculations every evening. The principle is demonstrated on the Web site of India's National Multi-Commodity Exchange ("Commodity Study" section, gold segment). Since gold slipped to $400 last week, India has been showing enormous premiums. Basically, the domestic price now exceeds the world price by more than $10. This means there will be massive imports. This Indian premium is far higher than when gold went below $400 earlier this year. In fact, and significantly, the last time premiums of more than $10 were seen, briefly, was at the bottom of the major gold slide in March 2003. I conclude the Indians will be dining on bear curry. There are other reasons to expect a rally. The gold market shows all the hallmarks of an actively promoted short position. In the final hour of stock trading on Tuesday, gold shares staged one of their biggest and quickest drops of recent times. This was followed by a quick and massive ($5) decline in gold on ACCESS, the overnight electronic trading system operated by Comex. Since Tokyo and the other Far Eastern markets currently only open at 8 p.m. Eastern, for the first few hours after New York's close the only global counterparty on ACCESS is the Pacific Ocean. That's the easiest time of the day to move the gold price. And that's when it happened. But shorting is a dangerous game. The weak longs have gone. And MarketVane's Bullish Consensus for gold dropped Wednesday evening to 67 percent. For the past couple of years, readings in the 60s have marked bottoms. Many shares have been savaged to interesting levels. Especially if the dollar continues to pummel the South African rand, Durban Deep and Harmony will be exceptional value. I am intrigued by the special situation Crystallex. Two no-load gold funds worth noting are Tocqueville Gold, where the widely published manager plays a leadership role in the gold world, and Gabelli Gold where the manager -- despite his comparative youth -- is actually the longest-serving in the sector. In gold, scar tissue is inevitable -- and it helps. ----------------- John Brimelow is a stockbroker and a brother of Peter Brimelow, who is a CBS MarketWatch columnist. He can be reached through www.johnbrimelow.com. ---------------------------------------------------- To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] To unsubscribe, send an e-mail to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] ---------------------------------------------------- RECOMMENDED INTERNET SITES FOR DAILY MONITORING OF GOLD AND PRECIOUS METALS NEWS AND ANALYSIS Free sites: http://www.jsmineset.com http://www.cbs.marketwatch.com http://www.mineweb.com/ http://www.gold-eagle.com/ http://www.kitco.com/ http://www.usagold.com/ http://www.GoldSeek.com/ http://www.capitalupdates.com/ http://www.goldenbar.com/ http://www.silver-investor.com http://www.thebulliondesk.com/ http://www.sharelynx.com/ http://www.mininglife.com/ http://www.financialsense.com http://www.goldensextant.com http://www.goldismoney.info/index.html http://www.howestreet.com http://www.depression2.tv http://www.moneyfiles.org/ http://www.howestreet.com http://www.minersmanual.com/minernews.html http://www.a1-guide-to-gold-investments.com/euro-vs-dollar.html http://www.goldcolony.com http://www.miningstocks.com http://www.mineralstox.com http://www.321gold.com http://www.SilverSeek.com http://www.investmentrarities.com http://www.kuik.com/KH/KH.html (Korelin Business Report -- audio) http://www.plata.com.mx/plata/home.htm (In Spanish) http://www.plata.com.mx/plata/plata/english.htm (In English) Subscription site: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/ http://www.hsletter.com Eagle Ranch discussion site: http://os2eagle.net/checksum.htm Ted Butler silver commentary archive: http://www.investmentrarities.com/ ---------------------------------------------------- COIN AND PRECIOUS METALS DEALERS WHO HAVE SUPPORTED GATA AND BEEN RECOMMENDED BY OUR MEMBERS Centennial Precious Metals 3033 East 1st Ave. Suite 403 Denver, Colorado 80206 www.USAGold.com Michael Kosares, Proprietor US (800) 869-5115 Canada 1-800-294-9462 European Union 00-800-2760-2760 Australia 0011-800-2760-2760 [EMAIL PROTECTED] Colorado Gold 222 South 5th St. Montrose, Colorado 81401 www.ColoradoGold.com Don Stott, Proprietor 1-888-786-8822 [EMAIL PROTECTED] El Dorado Discount Gold Box 11296 Glendale, Arizona 85316 http://www.eldoradogold.net Harvey Gordin, President Office: 623-434-3322 Mobile: 602-228-8203 [EMAIL PROTECTED] Investment Rarities Inc. 7850 Metro Parkway Minneapolis, Minnesota 55425 http://www.gloomdoom.com Greg Westgaard, Sales Manager 1-800-328-1860, Ext. 8889 [EMAIL PROTECTED] Kitco 178 West Service Road Champlain, N.Y. 12919 Toll Free:1-877-775-4826 Fax: 518-298-3457 and 620 Cathcart, Suite 900 Montreal, Quebec H3B 1M1 Canada Toll-free:1-800-363-7053 Fax: 514-875-6484 http://www.kitco.com Lee Certified Coins P.O. Box 1045 454 Daniel Webster Highway Merrimack, New Hampshire 03054 www.certifiedcoins.com Ed Lee, Proprietor 1-800-835-6000 [EMAIL PROTECTED] Miles Franklin Ltd. 3015 Ottawa Ave. South St. Louis Park, Minn. 55416 1-800-822-8080 / 952-929-1129 fax: 952-925-0143 http://www.milesfranklin.com Contacts: David Schectman, Andy Schectman, and Bob Sichel Missouri Coin Co. 11742 Manchester Road St. Louis, MO 63131-4614 [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.mocoin.com Resource Consultants Inc. 6139 South Rural Road Suite 103 Tempe, Arizona 85283-2929 Pat Gorman, Proprietor 1-800-494-4149, 480-820-5877 [EMAIL PROTECTED] Swiss America Trading Corp. 15018 North Tatum Blvd. Phoenix, Arizona 85032 http://www.swissamerica.com Dr. Fred I. Goldstein, Senior Broker 1-800-BUY-COIN [EMAIL PROTECTED] ---------------------------------------------------- HOW TO HELP GATA If you benefit from GATA's dispatches, please consider making a financial contribution to GATA. We welcome contributions as follows. By check: Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. c/o Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer 7 Villa Louisa Road Manchester, CT 06043-7541 USA By credit card (MasterCard, Visa, and Discover) over the Internet: http://www.gata.org/creditcard.html By GoldMoney: http://www.GoldMoney.com Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. Holding number 50-08-58-L Donors of $750 or more will, upon request, be sent a print of Alain Despert's colorful painting symbolizing our cause, titled "GATA." GATA is a civil rights and educational organization under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code and contributions to it are tax-deductible in the United States. -END- Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/ www.ctrl.org DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. 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Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector. ======================================================================== Archives Available at: http://www.mail-archive.com/[EMAIL PROTECTED]/ <A HREF="http://www.mail-archive.com/[EMAIL PROTECTED]/">ctrl</A> ======================================================================== To subscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SUBSCRIBE CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] To UNsubscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SIGNOFF CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Om
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