Date: July 15, 2006 3:41:40 PM PDT
Subject: [cia-drugs] More on "official" production versus consumption of opiates
Howdy,
In refering back to my source material, let me correct, refine
Iran's position in worldwide opium production.
Again refering to the CIA World Fact book and the 2006 UN World
Drug Report.
Iran has the highest percentage of it's adult (15-65) population
as opiate users, 2.8% (that's where that number floating 'round my
head came from).
Now with an adult population of 47,379,174 gives us around
1,300,000 users, rounding down to a million again about 370 tonnes a
year. Now this is figuring heroin and so the model must be refined
some more because much of the use in Pakistan is strictly opium use.
But there is also a heroin using population in Pakistan.
If one looks at the figures of usage versus production one sees
that there is a disconnect.
With one tonne of heroin production requiring about ten tonnes
of opium. Which is reflected in the UN figures of 4620 tonnes of
opium and 472 "potential production" in 2005.
So let us say Iran has 250,000 heroin addicts and 750,000 opium
addicts, each figuring a gram a day of their substance a day yeilds:
Heroin about .25 tonnes of heroin a day and 93 tonnes of heroin
a year.
For the 750,000 opium addicts, they need ,75 tonnes of opium a
day or 277 tonnes of opium a year.
So taking the ten percent rule of thumb.
Iran uses 930 plus 277 or around 1200 tonnes of opium just to
take care of its, according to "official" UN report, internal opiated
population.
So where does it come from?
In looking at a Dutch report from 1935 here is the listing of
opium production leaders 1931-1935. With limited information on
Afghanistan and none at all from French Indo-Chiina.
1. China
2. India (Reported production dropping fast)
3. Iran
4. Asia Minor
5. USSR
6. Yugoslavia
7. Japan
8. Korea
9. Bulgaria
If Afghanistan kept up with the one year reported it would be
fourth.
According to this report in 1931 the production was 2291 metric
tonnes and that is without reporting. China, Afghanistan and French
Indo-China.
That year Iran produced 890 metric tonnes
So, again just going back to the current usage and production
numbers.
There does seem to be a disconnect that would benefit the
illegal drug trade.
6:36 PM
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