Date: October 5, 2006 6:19:08 AM PDT
Subject: [cia-drugs] Re: remember the untraced puts from just before 911?
The link is
Find discussion at
#10 CP - I think the point of the post is beyond 'investing'; the
possibility is that someone with knowledge of a future event that will
knock the market down substantially is seeking to profit from it.
Follow the money and find who is planning an 'attack' - potentially
terrorist attack. If I recall correctly there was some element of this
kind of thing just before 9-11.
Posted by Glenmore 2006-10-03 09:03|| Front Page|| Top
#11 I agree, Glenmore. In fact, if you look in Fred's archives, he
linked to articles about bin Ladin profitting mightily from certain
investments made just before the 9/11 attacks. It's still not clear to
me if this was an urban legend or real, but certainly something looked
suspicious to the cynical.
Posted by trailing wife 2006-10-03 09:35|| Front Page|| Top
#12 I think the point of the post is beyond 'investing'; the
possibility is that someone with knowledge of a future event that will
knock the market down substantially is seeking to profit from it.
Yup. Shouldv'e made that clear in my comment above.
Rational investors who do not have inside knowledge of events that are
likely to change the market buy/sell options on the basis I described
above.
Those with inside knowledge, OTOH .....
Posted by lotp 2006-10-03 09:58|| Front Page|| Top
#13 thanks for the easy to understand explanation of puts, lopt.
I flipped past CNBC this morning. They all had long faces and looked
down so I stayed to see what the good news was. Gold, Silver, platinum
are waaaay down. Oil down too. (She said, with a very disappointed
look, "oil can't keep going down forever" and then they both tried to
console themselves that eventually the spigot would get turned off.)
Anyway - I digress. As is obvious, I don't know the stock market - but
logically, it makes sense to me that many speculators would use the
DOW reaching its new heights as a benchmark to buy and sell. In
addition to lopts great comments above, I think what we are seeing is
the fact that by going past the old high, the people who play the
market are making changes in their plays. Kind of like after the queen
of spades is played in hearts.
Posted by anon 2006-10-03 10:32|| Front Page|| Top
#14 This is somewhat rubbish.
First, every option (put or call) has two parties: buyer and seller.
To buy a put, that means someone has to be selling in the first place.
Someone who is selling puts believes the market will remain flat or go
up. Their bet is that they'll collect their put premium and the option
expires unexercised.
Therefore, another interpretation of this is a lot of folks think the
market is going up and are looking to collect some income from folks
who think the exact opposite. But remember, the seller comes first.
Posted by Dreadnought 2006-10-03 10:57|| Front Page|| Top
#15 true, dreadnought. An increased number of puts means something is
changing. I think the above explanation of an insurance policy seems
apt. Looking at gold and oil falling. It's good for most of us, but if
you speculated in it, it is risky. When do you sell? These are
gamblers hedging their bets. It may be because they anticipate the
stock market to go up - not down - and that just means that people
start changing where they invest their money.
Posted by Crurt Sneth8456 2006-10-03 12:18|| Front Page|| Top
#16 The Dow is at a record high right now and historically October can
be a bad month in the market. So people buy puts as an insurance
policy to lock in some profits. I don't think there's anthing abnormal
about that. Also, I don't know where the writer of the article gets
the October 6th date. Options always expire on the 3rd Friday of the
month. This month it will be October 20th. I know this because I have
lots of calls set to expire. I write calls nearly every month.
Sometimes I will buy a puts as a hedge to cover some big gains. If
there was fear building people would be buying the commodities.
Posted by Intrinsicpilot 2006-10-03 13:06|| Front Page|| Top
#17 Options always expire on the 3rd Friday of the month
The standard ones offered by the large underwriters do. But an option
is simply a contract and they can be (and are) negotiated with all
sorts of custom terms, including the expiration date as well as strike
price.
Commodities are indeed going down right now, btw -- gold and other
precious metals bought as a hedge against high oil prices / inflation
will come down when that inflation (and those oil prices) don't keep
rising.
Posted by lotp 2006-10-03 13:11|| Front Page|| Top
#18 Back when I had money, I used to sell puts on stocks I was going
to buy (and hold) anyway. Unless the stock skyrocketed, the put would
help finance the purchase. I was never into the short-term
buy-sell-buy stuff, mainly because I knew I'd screw it up.
Posted by Jackal 2006-10-03 13:33|| Front Page|| Top
#19 The standard ones offered by the large underwriters do. But an
option is simply a contract and they can be (and are) negotiated with
all sorts of custom terms, including the expiration date as well as
strike price.
True but if you think something bad is going to happen right away
would you spend the time finding a seller of puts so you can put
together a custom option contract to buy? It doesn't make any sense.
Also look at the data for the DIA Oct 20th Puts:
Scroll down to Puts and notice the price on the Puts from $112 to
$120. You will see a lot of red arrows. Meaning prices are dropping.
Which means LESS people think the market is going down.
Posted by Intrinsicpilot 2006-10-03 13:39|| Front Page|| Top
#20 Th market goes up in small amounts with scattered down turns, but
the market goes down in one day. This is because of short selling
(puts). Personally, I think short selling should be outlawed, but the
market pros make money selling short. How, easy, by all selling at the
same time, and causing a market collapse. Many investers use stop
orders which when hit become sell at market orders,
So, lets say we buy Microsoft at $27.40, and we know that the market
is high, we establish a stop order within $.15 or $27.25. Well, after
the short sales, the price will spiral downward, and our stops will
become sell at market, which by then may be $25.75 and so on until
4:30 PM EDT or the end of sellers is reached. At which time, Microsoft
may be $18.50 or about 3 years worth of gains.
If you think this sounds like the stock market is build on a flimsy
foundation, welcome to Wall Street.
Posted by wxjames 2006-10-03 14:09|| Front Page|| Top
#21 WX,
The situation you described is not a put. Short selling is a
completely different animal that involves borrowing shares and selling
them. Buying a put/selling a call is being short in the market, but it
is not short selling.
If I write a put (the seller) on Microsoft stock with a strike price
$20 and someone buys it, and the price drops to $15 or $10 or $0, I
have to buy MSFT at $20 if the buyer chooses to exercise the option.
His profit is $20 - Current stock price (if he had to purchase the
shares to sell to me) - Option Premium.
Unlike short selling, the person who buys a put is only on the hook
for the initial option premium; he can't lose anything else. In short
selling, you are at risk for both the shares you borrowed and any
additional money if the market runs the wrong way (i.e., up, up and away).
Also, market/stop orders are not unique to options or short selling.
You play in this game at your own risk.
Posted by Dreadnought 2006-10-03 14:45|| Front Page|| Top
#22 There are a lot of hedge funds out there now and they may be
buying a lot of PUT options as a risk management strategy.
15:13|| Front Page|| Top
#23 Hehe is it a North Korean investment vehicle? In the mean time the
market broke a record and oil goes south big time.....Iran and
Venezuela see their GDP drop by the second today......
Posted by Jinese Graique6952 2006-10-03 15:42|| Front Page|| Top
#24 Following the links through, I think the original post that
started this whole thing misread the October 2006 puts as expiring
October 06. They do in fact expire on the Saturday following the 3rd
Friday...last day of trading is Friday October 20, official expiration
is Saturday October 21.
Posted by Moon6 2006-10-03 15:48|| Front Page|| Top
REPOST) PUTS FORECAST OCT. SURPRISE?
Sunday, October 01, 2006 - FreeMarketNews.com
INITIAL POST 09.30.06
A faithful reader and commentator, "A. Magnus" writes the following
email, posted to FMNN General Feedback:
"Do you like October suprises? Is there a big bang coming to hit the
markets? If you believe that those in the know use insider
information before major events then you might be interested on the
HUGE number of October 6th put options for the big indexes. Check out
the concentrated puts on the Diamonds DOW Trust (DIA):
?priced=Y&SID_VALUE_ID=DIA
Ditto for the S&P Depository Receipts (SPY):
?priced=Y&SID_VALUE_ID=SPY
And the NASDAQ (QQQQ):
?priced=Y&SID_VALUE_ID=QQQQ
Even the Market Vectors Gold Miners has significant puts for October
6th:
?priced=Y&SID_VALUE_ID=GDX
Make no mistake - something wicked this way comes, and the smart
money has already taken preventative steps."
Staff Selections - Links
Please let us stay on topic and be civil.
OM
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