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-Caveat Lector-
US warns of disaster if Turks attack Iraq
<BYLINE>Molly Moore and Robin Wright in
<DATE>October 15
_http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/us-warns-of-disaster-if-turks-attack-iraq/20
07/10/14/1192300600727.html_
(http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/us-warns-of-disaster-if-turks-attack-iraq/2007/10/14/1192300600727.html)
<
AMERICAN officials have begun an intense lobbying effort to defuse Turkish
threats to launch a military attack on Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq.
Turkey is also threatening to limit access to critical air and land routes
that have become a lifeline for US troops in Iraq.
But even as the US Assistant Secretary of State for European affairs, Daniel
Fried, appealed for restraint in Ankara on Saturday, the Turkish Prime
Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, at a political rally in Istanbul, urged the
parliament to vote unanimously this week to "declare a mobilisation" against
Kurdish
rebels and their "terrorist organisation", the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
US military officials predict disastrous consequences if Turkey strikes at
northern Iraq and serious repercussions for the safety of US troops if Turkey
reduces the supply lines it permits.
The confluence of two seemingly unrelated events could not have come at a
worse time. The bodies of 13 Turkish soldiers killed on October 7 in one of the
deadliest attacks by Kurdish separatists had barely been buried amid emotional
media coverage when the House Foreign Affairs Committee in Washington approved
a resolution to label as genocide the mass killings of Armenians during the
final decades of the Ottoman Empire.
"This is not only about a resolution," said Egemen Bagis, a member of the
Turkish parliament and a foreign policy adviser to Erdogan. "We're fed up with
the PKK -- it is a clear and present danger for us. This insult over the
genocide claims is the last straw."
Domestic politics in both countries -- the Armenian lobby that pushed for the
genocide resolution in Congress and growing pressure on the Turkish
leadership to stop Kurdish rebel attacks -- collided to create an international
crisis.
"It's a difficult time for the relationship," the US Secretary of State,
Condoleezza Rice, told reporters on Saturday during her trip to Russia, noting
Mr
Fried and another State Department official had gone to Turkey to reassure the
Turks "that we really value this relationship".
The Washington Post
------------------------------------
Oil Rises Above $85 to a Record
on Increased Turkey-Iraq Tension
By Mark Shenk
_http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alq85QT4dS.k&refer=home_
(http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alq85QT4dS.k&refer=home)
Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose above $85 a barrel for the first time
in New York on concern Turkish forces may pursue Kurdish militants in Iraq,
curbing shipments as refiners prepare for the peak-demand heating season.
Prices climbed as much as 1.9 percent because Turkey's military may attack
Kurdish bases in Iraq, which have the world's third-largest oil reserves.
Futures also increased after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
said
production outside the group will be lower than previously forecast.
``Everything imaginable is going wrong as far as the oil market is
concerned,'' said Robert Ebel, chairman of the energy program at the Center for
Strategic and International Studies in Washington. ``Turkey is saber rattling,
Iraq
isn't calming down, Iran is also saber rattling and supplies are tight.''
Crude oil for November delivery rose $1.61, or 1.9 percent, to $85.30 a
barrel at 12:30 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures reached
$85.48,
the highest since the contract was introduced in 1983. This is the fifth
straight daily increase. Prices are 46 percent higher than a year ago.
Today's intraday high passed the previous all-time inflation-adjusted record
reached in 1981 when Iran cut oil exports. The cost of oil used by U.S.
refiners averaged $37.48 a barrel in March 1981, according to the Energy
Department,
or $84.73 in today's dollars.
Citigroup Inc., Deutsche Bank AG and HSBC Holdings Plc have predicted over
the past month that oil prices would decline because of falling gasoline demand
and a slowing U.S. economy. Oil may end the year below $70 a barrel, forecast
Adam Sieminski, the global oil analyst at Deutsche Bank in New York.
New Legislation
Turkey's government will ask lawmakers to approve legislation to launch
attacks on bases of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK. The resolution, which
requires the backing of a simple majority of legislators in Turkey's 550-seat
parliament, is also supported by the main opposition parties.
Turkey says U.S. and Iraqi forces have failed to act against about 3,500 PKK
militants based in northern Iraq. The PKK has fought a two-decade war for
independence from Turkey at the cost of almost 40,000 lives.
``Reports of hostilities between the Turks and Kurdish rebels in northern
Iraq and OPEC estimates of reduced oil production by non-OPEC countries is
pushing prices higher,'' said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at
TFS
Energy LLC in Stamford, Connecticut.
Falling Dollar
Crude-oil and other commodities also rose because the U.S. dollar declined
against the euro, enhancing their appeal as an investment. A lower dollar makes
oil relatively cheaper in the countries using other currencies.
``You don't hear a lot of complaining about high prices except in the U.S.,''
Ebel said. ``The rise in prices is a lot less impressive in other
currencies.''
In U.S. dollars, West Texas Intermediate, the New York- traded crude-oil
benchmark, is up 40 percent so far this year. Oil is up 30 percent in euros, 34
percent in British pounds and 38 percent in yen. Oil reached a record against
the euro on July 17, 2006, when Israel struck targets in Lebanon, raising the
prospect of a halt in its supplies from the Middle East.
Brent crude oil for November settlement rose $1.52, or 1.9 percent, to $82.07
a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Brent reached
$82.23, the highest since the contract was introduced in 1988.
The euro rose against the dollar today on speculation quickening inflation
will prompt the European Central Bank to keep raising interest rates. The U.S.
Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate by a half percentage point to 4.75
percent on Sept. 18 as losses on loans to homeowners with poor credit sparked
an
increase in short-term borrowing costs.
Money Flow
``We are seeing the effects of the Fed lowering rates when it didn't need
to,'' said Bill O'Grady, director of fundamental futures research at A.G.
Edwards
& Sons in St. Louis. ``Bonds and the U.S. currency have fallen while
commodities and foreign currencies have become more attractive. There's been a
steady
flow of money into these markets since the cut.''
OPEC members have said a falling dollar justified higher prices because
oil-producing countries sell oil in dollars and often buy goods in euros. OPEC
will
discuss the impact of the falling dollar when members meet in Abu Dhabi on
Dec. 5, Algerian Oil Minister Chakib Khelil said today.
``Oil exporters are losing a lot of money because of the weak dollar,''
Khelil told national public radio in Algiers. The increase in crude oil prices
is
helping Algeria recoup losses from the falling value of the U.S. currency, he
said.
OPEC agreed last month to produce an extra 500,000 barrels a day starting
Nov. 1 to meet fourth-quarter demand.
``Once we get some winter weather, prices will really take off,'' said
Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president for energy risk management at MF Global
Ltd. in
New York.
Heating oil for November delivery increased 4.08 cents, or 1.8 percent, to
$2.2872 a gallon in New York. Futures touched $2.2917, the highest since
trading
began in 1978.
------------------------------------
Arabs Gain from US-Turkey Crisis
_by Scott Sullivan_
(http://www.theconservativevoice.com/profile/2684/Scott-Sullivan.html)
October 15, 2007 12:00 PM EST
_http://www.theconservativevoice.com/article/28637.html_
(http://www.theconservativevoice.com/article/28637.html)
By assaulting Turkey, President Bush and the US Congress have sharply
increased Arab leverage over US policy in Iraq and opened the way to large
scale Arab
participation in resolution of the Iraq crisis.
The US Congress has assaulted Turkey by advancing the Armenia Genocide
resolution, which now awaits final approval by the House of Representatives,
possibly as early as this week, according to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
President Bush has assaulted Turkey by siding with the PKK in its dispute
with Turkey. Bush has refused to order US forces in Iraq to deter PKK cross
border raids into Turkey. Bush has even insisted that the Turkish government
negotiate PKK issues directly with Kurdish President Massoud Barzani, who
Turkey
considers to be pro-PKK.
Turkey has threatened to retaliate against the US by withdrawing Turkish
logistical support for US forces in Iraq. Turkey provides substantial logistics
support to US operations in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Turkish public opinion
against the US for its pro-PKK stance will almost certainly compel Turkish
Prime
Minister Erdogan to constrict the US logistics supply corridor.
The loss of Turkish logistical support would strike hard at US operations
from two directions. First, the progress of Operation Surge could be halted
just
as it is beginning to have an impact beyond the Sunnis in Anbar province. Such
a setback would compel President Bush and Congress to reconsider the option
of an early withdrawal of US forces from Iraq.
Second, the option of withdrawing US forces from Iraq could become far more
hazardous, given the loss of the existing option of withdrawing through the
Kurdish areas in northern Iraq to Turkey.
As a result of losing Turkish support for US logistics, the must choose
between two competing alternatives for a new logistics corridor -- Iran or the
Arab
states. In short, either Iran or the Arab states would step forward to
support US forces in Iraq. Whoever steps forward would gain considerable
leverage
over future US policy in Iraq.Iran would gain leverage by offering the Persian
Gulf access as a substitute for Turkish access to Iraq.
Iran could offer access via the Iraqi port of Basra, which Iran could easily
bring under its control.Iran would then be in position to reinforce its
existing position as the US’s primary partner in Iran, and to move ahead with
its
plan to partition Iraq with the Kurds. Under this scenario, Iran would take
Basra and all of southern Iraq, and the Kurds would take Kirkuk and northern
Iraq.
Under such a scenario it is possible to imagine joint US-Iranian
Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) patrols in Basra.
Meanwhile, the Arabs would gain leverage by offering Jordan and Kuwait as
substitutes for Turkish logistical support. However, the Arabs would insist
upon
no partition of Iraq between Iran and the Kurds. The Arabs are terrified by
the emergence of Iranian-Kurdish collaboration in dividing Iraq, backstopped by
the US. For the first time since the US occupation of Iraq, Arab influence
would displace Iranian influence in Iraq.
In short, as a result of the US-Turkish logistics crisis, the US must choose
between reinforcing its existing partnership with Iran and the Kurds in Iraq,
a partnership that leads directly to Iraq’s partition. Alternatively, in a
second option, the US would build a new relationship with the Arab states in
Iraq, one directed at opposing Iraq’s partition.
Turkish PM Erdogan clearly hopes the US will choose the Arab option, at which
point Turkey could re-enter the US logistical supply operation. Prime
Minister Erdogan and the Arabs would then displace Iran as the US partner in
Iraq.
Iran, in turn, will be isolated. Excellent!
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