___________________________________________ What's going on in your world? Find Out. Visit Stratfor's Global Intelligence Center http://www.stratfor.com/world/default.htm ___________________________________________ OTHER FEATURES ON STRATFOR.COM Hun Sen Balances Internal Threat and External Aid with Delay in Khmer Rouge Trial http://www.stratfor.com/asia/specialreports/special43.htm Caprivi Violence Further Undermines SADC http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/commentary/m9908042400.htm Ukraine Presidential Election Shapes Up as Choice Between East or West http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/commentary/c9908042300.htm U.S. and North Korea's Neighbors Shrug Off Missile Test Threat http://www.stratfor.com/asia/commentary/c9908042200.htm Egypt and Libya Move to Influence Sudanese Peace Process http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/commentary/m9908042330.htm Georgia Feigns Surprise at Presence of Abkhaz Leader in Moscow http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/commentary/c9908042117.htm __________________________________ STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update August 5, 1999 U.S. Still Interested in Panamanian Bases Summary: At a public appearance in David, Panama on August 1, President- elect Mireya Moscoso denied she had discussed continued access to bases in Panama with U.S. officials. According to the Panamanian newspaper La Prensa, Moscoso said trade issues were the only topics discussed. However, if the meeting dealt solely with trade issues, what explains the presence at the talks of General Charles Wilhelm, commander of the U.S. Southern Command? The answer may be that the U.S. has not completely abandoned all hope of using bases built in Panama. Analysis: While speaking in David on August 1, President-elect Mireya Moscoso said she had not discussed allowing the U.S. continued access to bases in Panama past December 31, 1999 with U.S. officials. According to La Prensa, Moscoso met with a group of unnamed U.S. congressmen and General Charles Wilhelm, commander of the U. S. Southern Command. Moscoso did not deny that the meeting took place, she merely said the meeting focused "solely on trade matters." Even leaving aside the issue of the Panama Canal, Panama has been vital to U.S. interests in Latin America as an integral part of its drug interdiction efforts. The existing infrastructure at Howard Air Force Base (AFB) and its geographic location made Panama an ideal site for counter-narcotics (CN) operations. The piecemeal replacements for Howard AFB -- including a base in Aruba blocked by Venezuelan airspace restrictions, radar installations in Central America able to detect but not interdict traffic, and militarily risky increased presence in drug- producing countries -- do not make up for the loss of the Panamanian base. For the last several years the U.S. has tried to negotiate a deal with the Panamanian government that would allow the U.S. to maintain a continued presence in the Canal Zone. Efforts seemed to intensify the closer it got to December 31, 1999, the date all U.S. troops must be out of Panama. However, discussions on setting up a multi-national counter- narcotics center (MCC) at Howard AFB seemed to break down completely last year. Both sides said it was doubtful the MCC would come about. Now, with a new president preparing to take office on September 2, there may yet be hope for the MCC. Although Moscoso was against a continued U.S. presence during the presidential campaign, so were the other three candidates. The reversion of the Canal Zone to Panamanian control is a very hot nationalistic issue. Only a fool would campaign on the promise of allowing the U.S. to retain control of any portion of the Zone. However, Moscoso did open the door to the possibility of joint U.S.-Panamanian anti-narcotics patrols. It is unclear what this would involve, but it seems to indicate a willingness to at least discuss the issue. Now that Moscoso has won the election and is ready to take office, there might be room to negotiate. During testimony on Capitol Hill on June 22, Senator Paul Coverdell told his fellow legislators that Moscoso has gone on record as saying she would be "willing to negotiate some type of continued U.S. military presence." Coverdell also criticized the current U.S. administration for not continuing efforts to maintain some kind of presence in such a strategically important location. U.S. officials such as Senate majority leader Trent Lott and House Speaker Dennis Hastert called for more talks with the Panamanian government after the May 2 presidential elections. It is clear that there are officials in the U.S. that still support establishing a MCC in Panama. The presence of Wilhelm at a meeting with Moscoso and U.S. congressmen suggests that the meeting did not focus entirely on trade issues, unless of course the trade in question was to be interdicted. There is no official acknowledgement that the U.S. and Panama are involved in negotiating a continued military presence or the establishment of the MCC in Panama. However, the attendance of Wilhelm at a "trade" meeting causes wonder if talks on the MCC are entirely dead. Unless General Wilhelm is pursuing his own foreign policy agenda, it appears the U.S. government is actively seeking to continue maintaining a Panamanian presence. __________________________________________________ SUBSCRIBE to FREE, DAILY GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATES (GIU) http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/subscribe.asp or send your name, organization, position, mailing address, phone number, and e-mail address to [EMAIL PROTECTED] UNSUBSCRIBE FROM THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATES (GIU) http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/subscribe.asp ___________________________________________________ STRATFOR.COM 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/ Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] ___________________________________________________ (c) 1999, Stratfor, Inc.
