-Caveat Lector- ------- Forwarded Message Follows ------- National Center For Policy Analysis DAILY POLICY DIGEST Thursday, August 5, 1999 PointCast can automatically load NCPA's Policy Digest summaries on your desktop for easy reading. For information go to http://www.ncpa.org/pointcast.html IN TODAY'S DIGEST o SUNSPOT CYCLES CORRELATE WITH GLOBAL TEMPERATURE INCREASES, say some scientists....GEORGE C. MARSHALL INSTITUTE/WALL STREET JOURNAL o CLINTON PROPOSES $95 BILLION IN NEW TAXES AND $1.032 TRILLION SPENDING INCREASES, says former Federal Reserve governor Lawrence B. Lindsey....AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE/WALL STREET JOURNAL o THE NUMBER OF LAWYERS IS FAST APPROACHING ONE MILLION, and restrictions on legal actions are increasing....NEW YORK TIMES o THE AVERAGE U.S. FAMILY SPENDS 14 PERCENT OF INCOME ON FOOD, but poverty figures assume the poor spend one-third -- which may inflate the number in poverty....INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY o SAUDI ARABIAN OIL COSTS $1.50 A BARREL TO PRODUCE and sells for more than $15 a barrel; but U.S. companies accuse the Saudis of dumping it....NEW YORK TIMES o PROJECTED SPACE STATION COSTS ARE MORE THAN $100 BILLION, up from an estimated $8 billion for a grander project in 1984.....WEEKLY STANDARD IN TODAY'S NEWS The SUN'S ROLE IN GLOBAL WARMING Those who promote the controversial theory that the Earth is getting warmer due to burning of fossil fuels are overlooking an important factor, scientists say: the changing nature of the sun. Computer simulations say the "greenhouse effect" should have raised the global temperature by about one degree Celsius -- or 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit -- over the past 100 years. But in fact temperatures rose 0.5 degrees C over the century, peaking before 1940. Then it decreased until the 1970s, and has since risen a modest 0.2 degrees C. Experts point out that because more than 80 percent of manmade carbon dioxide entered the air since the 1940s, the earlier warming of 0.5 degrees C must be natural. Sunspots may very well be that natural factor: o The sun is brightest during peak sunspot periods -- which change every 11 years or so, making for a 22-year magnetic cycle. o Studies show that changes in the cycle correlate closely to changes in North American land temperatures over three centuries. o If recent NASA data are indicative, changes in the sun's magnetism track changes in the sun's brightness. o If this is so, changes in the sunspot cycle would explain the average temperature change of 0.5 degrees Celsius over the past 100 years. Changes in the cycle also correspond to temperature variations over many millennia. Sunspots were rare from about 1640 to 1710 -- a period which coincides with the coldest century of the millennium. While we lack temperature data for other centuries, the role of sunspots in climate change can be inferred from historical fluctuations of wheat prices. In periods of few sunspots, the climate gets colder. Indeed, five prolonged periods of few sunspots coincides with periods of higher wheat prices in England. Source: Sallie Baliunas (George C. Marshall Institute, Mt. Wilson Observatory), "Why So Hot? Don't Blame Man, Blame the Sun," Wall Street Journal, August 5, 1999. For NCPA's Global Warming Hotline go to http://www.ncpa.org/hotlines/global/gwhot.html QUICK, SPEND THE SURPLUS BEFORE TAXPAYERS GRAB IT That is essentially the view of the tax-and-spend crowd in Washington, economists warn. While Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has come down on the side of delaying a tax cut until the economy needs it, he has also made it clear that a major increase in outlays "is the worst of all possible worlds from a fiscal-policy point of view, and, under all conditions, should be avoided." He went on to add in recent testimony that he has "great sympathy for those who wish to cut taxes now to preempt that process, and indeed, if it turns out they are right, then I would say that moving on the tax front makes good sense to me." But former Federal Reserve governor Lawrence B. Lindsey warns that spending more is exactly what President Clinton has in mind. o Clinton calls for a 10 year spending increase of $1.032 trillion -- offset by a further $95 billion increase in taxes. o Thus he uses $937 billion of the projected surplus to grow government. o By contrast, the congressional budget resolution calls for cutting taxes by $778 billion and spending by $59 billion, reserving $218 billion for deficit reduction -- more than the president's. o In the past four fiscal years, inflation-adjusted domestic spending has actually increased $74 billion -- although partially offset by a $34 billion cut in real defense spending. At the same time, real tax receipts have soared $312 billion. So this recent history strongly suggests that with a tax-cut delay, politicians will fast find a way to spend the surplus before it can be returned to taxpayers. Source: Lawrence B. Lindsey (American Enterprise Institute), "Whose Surplus Is It, Anyway?" Wall Street Journal, August 5, 1999. For more on Current Tax Legislation http://www.ncpa.org/pi/congress/cong2.html BACKLASH AGAINST LAWYERS Critics say that lawyers who have grown more arrogant and the enormous fees they are reaping have set the stage for an anti- lawyer backlash. That backlash may already be here. Courts, state legislatures and Congress have barred certain types of suits entirely and tried to limit the type of advice lawyers can give. New federal and state laws and court decisions, for example, make it harder to bring certain kinds of personal injury suits, limit the legal arguments available in immigration cases and curtail civil rights suits on behalf of prisoners. Laws that went into effect in 1996 forbid all government-financed lawyers for the poor to file class-action suits, challenge welfare reform legislation or lobby on behalf of their clients. o The legal profession now amounts to a $130 billion business. o Just 20 years ago, there were 3 lawyers for every 1,000 adult Americans -- now there are more than 4.6 and the total number of lawyers and judges practicing is fast approaching 1 million. o Gross revenues of the country's 100 largest law firms more than doubled to $23.1 billion last year from $10.6 billion in 1988. o The 1,467 partners of the largest 13 firms made annual profits of more than $1 million per partner. One limitation on lawyers that has drawn particular attention is a two-year-old federal law known as "Granny's Lawyer Goes to Jail." It declares that any lawyer who advises an elderly person how to give away property to qualify for need-based Medicaid benefits is guilty of a crime. Last year, a federal district court declared it unconstitutional -- but it remains on the books. Source: William Glaberson, "Lawyers Contend with State and Federal Efforts to Restrict Their Rising Power," New York Times, August 5, 1999. For more on Lawyers http://www.ncpa.org/pd/law/legsys/index3c.html PROBLEMS IN DEFINING THE "POOR" When President Lyndon Johnson launched his war on poverty in the 1960s, the first order of business was coming up with a definition of who was poor. Experts say the poverty level set by the Census Bureau is out of whack. "The Census numbers seriously overstate the poverty problem," in the opinion of W. Michael Cox of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank. "The Census leaves out a lot of things that look like income and that act like income," says Gary Burtless of the Brookings Institution. o Census counts only cash income, including government cash aid -- leaving out food stamps and housing subsidies. o But it also doesn't subtract taxes from income. o The calculations of the poverty level assume families spend one-third of income on food -- as was the case in the 1960s -- but food prices have actually dropped compared with other goods, to the point where the average family now devotes just 14 percent of its household budget to food. o Since the average family is typically larger than the average poverty family, it is cheaper than government figures indicate for the average low-income family to feed itself. The Census Bureau sets the poverty line for an adult living alone at $8,480 annually. For two adults, the poverty line is $10,915. For two adults with two children, the amount is $13,133. That means that about 11.6 percent of American families are poor, by Census standards. Source: Charles Oliver, "Even Amid Signs of U.S. Plenty, Debate Over Poverty is Hot Topic," Investor's Business Daily, August 5, 1999. For more on Wealth and Poverty http://www.ncpa.org/pd/economy/econ12.html AN ABSURD CLAIM THAT OIL IS BEING "DUMPED" HERE The Commerce Department is scheduled to hear complaints from 12 independent oil producers that Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Iraq and Venezuela are selling oil in the U.S. for less than what they spend to produce it. Serious economists say the charge should be laughed off the department's docket. But they fear it won't. That's because anti-dumping laws are so stacked in favor of domestic companies that government agencies in charge of adjudicating trade cases almost always side against foreigners. "When it comes to dumping, economically ludicrous cases prevail all the time," says Philip K. Verleger, an economist for the Brattle Group of consultants. Here's what makes the charge of oil-dumping ludicrous to economists: o Since oil is priced in a world market, a producer could never hope to recoup his losses from selling below cost because he could never raise his prices to above-market levels to recoup those losses in the future. o Since the oil market is world-wide, a tax slapped on four countries would only rearrange oil export-import patterns -- not affecting supplies and prices over all. o Saudi Arabia spends only about $1.50 to produce a barrel of oil that sells for about $15, putting to flight the charge it is losing money. o Selling below costs is sometimes cited as a tactic to drive a competitor out of business -- but the U.S. oil industry need not worry. It is a common practice and perfectly legal for U.S. companies during times of economic slack to cut prices so as to generate enough cash to cover their operating expenses, even if they lose money temporarily. But when a foreign company does so and sells over here, it violates U.S. anti-dumping laws. Political observers point out that the last thing presidential candidate Al Gore needs is for an administration department to announce that it doesn't think Americans are paying enough at the gas pump and the home heating depot. Source: Michael M. Weinstein, "Oil and Those Slippery Anti- Dumping Laws," New York Times, August 5, 1999. For more on Tariffs and Other Trade Barriers http://www.ncpa.org/pd/trade/trade8.html IN OTHER NEWS SPACE STATION WOES When President Reagan proposed a space station in 1984, he used the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's assumptions that it would cost $8 billion, make possible major discoveries in eight scientific fields, and be completed by 1992. The actuality has fallen far short of those goals, say critics. o Nearly $30 billion has been spent so far, but only two of the almost 40 main parts have been installed. o Although the low-orbit station has been vastly scaled down, projected costs have ballooned to over $100 billion. o Its science mission has been scaled back to only one, and the completion date has been pushed back to 2005. Critics say that the problems building the space station come on the heels of the failure of the 30-year space shuttle program to accomplish its goals. o In 1982, NASA predicted that by 1992 the space shuttle would have flown over "400 times carrying payloads for military, scientific, and private industry customers." o The 1986 Challenger disaster ended NASA's role as a launch provider to all but itself and its international partners on the space station. o The shuttle system that was supposed to fly 51 times a year when it was sold to the nation in 1972 will fly only four times this year -- at a cost of $4 billion. And because the shuttle is cost prohibitive for commercial satellite launches, American businesses use European companies for launch services. Critics say claims have also been inflated for the next- generation shuttle, Lockheed Martin's X-33. The X-33 is supposed to be produced for industry customers after Lockheed builds a taxpayer- funded demonstrator. But Lockheed is now asking for government loan guarantees -- and Sen. John Breaux (D-La.) has introduced the Space Launch Cost Reduction Act to provide them. Just as with the airplane, microcomputer and satellite communications, critics suggest private enterprise should be given the opportunity to take over civilian space operations, bear the risks and reap the rewards. Source: Robert G. Oler, Richard Kolker and Mark Whittington, "Thirty Years of Ineptitude," Weekly Standard, July 26, 1999. For more on Other Spending Programs http://www.ncpa.org/pd/budget/budget-7.html ***************************************************************** ***** NATIONAL CENTER FOR POLICY ANALYSIS DALLAS, TEXAS "Making Ideas Change the World" Internet Address: http://www.ncpa.org ***************************************************************** ***** A<>E<>R ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The only real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes but in having new eyes. -Marcel Proust + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + "Believe nothing, no matter where you read it, or who said it, no matter if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your common sense." --Buddha + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + A merely fallen enemy may rise again, but the reconciled one is truly vanquished. -Johann Christoph Schiller, German Writer (1759-1805) + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly. -Bertrand Russell + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + "Everyone has the right...to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers." Universal Declaration of Human Rights + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + "Always do sober what you said you'd do drunk. That will teach you to keep your mouth shut." --- Ernest Hemingway + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Forwarded as information only; no endorsement to be presumed + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. section 107, this material is distributed without charge or profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving this type of information for non-profit research and educational purposes only. DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. Proselyzting propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance�not soapboxing! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory', with its many half-truths, misdirections and outright frauds is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRL gives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credeence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector. ======================================================================== Archives Available at: http://home.ease.lsoft.com/archives/CTRL.html http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/ ======================================================================== To subscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SUBSCRIBE CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] To UNsubscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SIGNOFF CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Om
