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Peace at any cost is a prelude to war!

Vladimir Putin has signalled that the West will be a rival rather than a
partner, Richard Beeston writes





Putin's empire begins to growl




The bear awakens


Putin: expected to win presidential election
FROM the northern Pacific coast to the Caucasus and beyond, Moscow's new
leadership has embarked on an aggressive foreign policy, which has set it
firmly on a collision course with Western interests.
In a series of actions over the past few days, the new Government of Vladimir
Putin, Russia's acting President, has moved to bolster its military, befriend
repressive regimes and put the West on notice that it will be a rival rather
than a partner. Despite receiving a cautious welcome in the West, where
Madeleine Albright, the US Secretary of State, praised Mr Putin this week for
his open-mindedness, his actions have sent a very different signal.

Mr Putin, a former KGB agent who is expected to win next month's presidential
elections virtually unopposed, seems in the space of only a month in power to
have embarked on a much more aggressive path than his predecessor, Boris
Yeltsin.

Igor Ivanov, his Foreign Minister, visited North Korea yesterday and signed a
friendship pact with the regime of Kim Jong Il, a pariah in the international
community.


Today he will follow up that move by visiting Japan, where Russia has
indicated that it will not honour a commitment by Mr Yeltsin to resolve the
dispute over the Kurile Islands, territory seized by Stalin at the end of the
Second World War.

Russia is further making its presence felt in the region with the delivery,
expected this month, of a guided-missile destroyer to China, the latest
addition of sophisticated Russian hardware to Beijing's growing naval
arsenal.

The sudden activity in the Far East has been matched by other initiatives
closer to Moscow. The Kremlin has just assigned the sole right to extract and
exploit Chechnya's oil and gas reserves to Rosneft, Russia's last state-owned
oil giant.

Last week the presidential Security Council passed a new Russian military
doctrine, which relaxes the rules of engagement of Moscow's nuclear forces.
>From next month, when the doctrine comes into effect, the Russian head of
state will be allowed to use atomic weapons in conflicts that do not
necessarily threaten Russia's territory.

The change in policy is regarded as an important shift when coupled with
other moves on the military front. Yesterday Russia successfully test fired a
Topol-M ballistic missile, its new-generation inter-continental weapon, which
was launched from the Plesetsk site in northern Russia and hit the Kamchatka
peninsula more than 5,000 miles away in the Pacific. Mr Putin also promised
recently to double military expenditure after his campaign in Chechnya.

The build-up comes as relations with Nato remain largely frozen. A
forthcoming visit by Lord Robertson of Port Ellen, the Nato
Secretary-General, to Moscow has been postponed. No date is likely to be set
until after the Russian presidential elections on March 26. The other cause
for concern in the West last week was the seizure in the Gulf by the US Navy
of the Russian tanker Volgoneft-147, which was found to be smuggling Iraqi
oil, thus helping Saddam Hussein to break UN sanctions.

Despite the concern caused by Russia's recent actions, Western policymakers
said that it was still too early to tell if Mr Putin would emerge as a
friendly or hostile leader during his rule, which is likely to run for at
least the next five years.

"Part of the problem is that we know so little about him," one senior
American official said. "What we do know is that he will be much more
difficult to influence than Yeltsin; our leverage is much weaker."

Britain is hoping that a visit to Moscow this month by Robin Cook, the
Foreign Secretary, will help to establish where Mr Putin is heading.





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