WJPBR Email News List [EMAIL PROTECTED] Peace at any cost is a Prelude to War! South Africa's Political Contradiction Summary South African President Thabo Mbeki's economic policies are coming under fire - from his own party, the African National Congress. Under pressure from a slow economy and upcoming elections, Mbeki will likely retreat from his market-oriented stance. But a larger issue remains - the deep ideological divide that may split the African National Congress. Analysis Opposition is increasing to the market-oriented economic policies of South African President Thabo Mbeki. But the resistance is coming from the ruling African National Congress (ANC) - Mbeki's own party. The ANC's general council met last week for a mid-term soul-searching session and emerged with plans to wrest control from the government's bureaucrats and technocrats, and therefore increase its influence over economic policy. Facing a struggling economy and eroding party, the ANC will likely force Mbeki to back away from his free-market economic stance. The African National Congress has been the dominant political force in South Africa since the abolition of apartheid in 1991. It controls just less than two-thirds of the seats in parliament and has produced the last two presidents. Often called "The Party of Mandela" the ANC has essentially run South Africa's government since 1994. But times are tough for the party. Its paid membership is down 50 percent from five years ago, local branches are beset with scandal, and - by Mbeki's own admission - the party is becoming increasingly alienated from voters. Bad news, since the party faces local elections in November. ________________________________________________________________ Would you like to see full text? http://www.stratfor.com/SERVICES/giu2000/072100.ASP ___________________________________________________________________ The crisis within the ANC is occurring in the midst of South Africa's continued economic malaise. The country is in the fourth year of an economic program designed to encourage foreign investment and stabilize South Africa's economy. The GEAR (Growth, Employment, and Redistribution) policy has decreased government spending, reduced inflation, cut tariffs and trimmed the national debt. But it hasn't made things better for the average worker. In fact, more than half a million jobs have been eliminated in the last decade. South Africa's GDP is growing, but slowly, at about 3 percent this year. Unemployment is around 30 percent, and the poverty rate is nearly double that. The tough economic medicine prescribed by the government has always been hard for ANC party leaders to accept. It spent most of the apartheid years as a socialist political organization - and had economic notions to match. Many of its top leadership were even educated in Moscow. This ambivalence is reinforced by the ANC political alliance with the South African Communist Party and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) - South Africa's powerful labor union. Both of these groups want the government to focus on job creation and social spending, not investor climate. Thus South Africa's political contradiction - technocrats, appointed by the ANC, have overruled the ruling party's ideas about economics. But the ANC has begun reasserting itself against the technocrats. It backed a Cosatu-organized national strike May 10 - a strike that protested against job losses from the government's economic program. In essence, the ruling party endorsed a protest against the policies of its own government. _______________________________________________________________ For more on South Africa, see: http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/countries/SouthAfrica/default.htm __________________________________________________________________ Besides pushing the government from the outside, the ANC has apparently decided to increase its hold over the government from the inside. In fact, this was a specific policy decision announced by ANC Secretary-General Kgalema Motlanthe after last week's council meeting, according to the Mail and Guardian, a South African daily. The party will apply pressure in at least two ways. It is setting up a policy institute to breed ideas, stimulate debate and develop talent - a small step, but useful in the long term. The ANC also has plans to "redeploy" senior politicians, including Cabinet ministers, from their current positions and into local governments. Although touted as a means to revive the party at the grassroots, the move smells like a purge. President Mbeki is a pragmatist and will likely compromise under concentrated pressure from his own party. He might be forced to give up his hope for tax-free zones for foreign manufacturers, or at least trade it for increased social spending and job creation. In any event, South Africa's economic policy will shift away from the free market doctrine it has embraced. But a larger problem exists in the longer term. A fundamental division exists within the ANC between free-traders, who occupy many top government posts, and old socialists, who carry much weight with the rank-and-file. This division is deep, ideological, and unlikely to be bridged easily. It may be enough to split the ANC. _______________________________________________________________ For more on the Middle East & Africa, see: http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/default.htm __________________________________________________________________ (c) 2000 Stratfor, Inc. *COPYRIGHT NOTICE** In accordance with Title 17 U. S. C. Section 107, any copyrighted work in this message is distributed under fair use without profit or payment to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for nonprofit research and educational purposes only.[Ref. http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml ] Want to be on our lists? Write at [EMAIL PROTECTED] for a menu of our lists! ****************************************************************************** ******************* A vote for Bush or Gore is a vote to continue Clinton policies! A vote for Buchanan is a vote to continue America! Therefore a vote for Gore or Bush is a wasted vote for America! 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