-Caveat Lector- WJPBR Email News List [EMAIL PROTECTED] Peace at any cost is a Prelude to War! Taiwan’s Renewed Military Hope 14 December 2000 Summary President-elect George W. Bush may not have to wait long for an opportunity to chart a new course in foreign policy: Taiwan recently signaled it will renew a request for advanced weaponry previously denied by the Clinton administration. Taiwan’s president, believing Bush will be more receptive, has indicated Taipei will once again press its case for military hardware it deems critical in fending off Chinese attack. Analysis On Dec. 6, Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian addressed a group of U.S. visitors – including Winston Lord, former assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, and former Clinton advisor Kenneth Lieberthal – warning the Clinton administration’s reluctance to sell advanced weapon systems has placed Taiwan at risk. By denying ROC requests for Arleigh Burke-class destroyers outfitted with the top-of-the-line AEGIS radar and High-Speed Anti-Radiation Missiles (HARM) for its air force, the administration has kept Taiwan on a short leash to avoid rupturing relations with Beijing or re-igniting a crisis in the Taiwan Straits. Selling these weapons would give Taiwan the capability to project and coordinate its air power against targets in mainland China and dramatically would increase its ability to fend off China’s overwhelming missile edge. Bush – who during the presidential campaign described China as “a competitor, not a strategic partner” to distance himself from the policies of the current Democratic administration – is expected to look more favorably upon Taiwan’s weapons requests. Bush’s father, former President George Bush, approved the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Taipei in the early 1990s. With some of the same foreign and defense policy advisors lining up for key positions in the new administration, Taiwan sees an opening on the arms sale stalemate. China has been engaged for some time in a military buildup across the straits. Its army has deployed increasing numbers of M-9 and M-11 short range ballistic missiles opposite Taiwan, with 50 added each year to the 200 already in place. On the sea, China purchased two Russian Sovremenny-class destroyers to project naval power into the straits, and beyond, in an attempt to develop a blue water navy capability. In the air, China purchased six Beriev A-50Es from Russia for airborne early warning and control. It also acquired 46 new Su-27 and 20 Su-30 fighters; an estimated 80 more front-line fighters are on order. However, few security analysts honestly think a mainland invasion of Taiwan would be successful in the foreseeable future. Taiwan maintains credible air superiority and anti-ship capability. RAND released a report Dec. 1 using computer simulations to model the outcomes of possible confrontations across the straits. RAND determined China could not successfully invade Taiwan. A submarine blockade or missile attack against Taiwanese ports to strangle its export-import based economy could be maintained for only a short period. Moreover, Taiwan already has a significant air defense capability. Patriot Advanced Capability 2 (PAC-2) anti-aircraft missiles are in place, and the improved PAC-3 will follow. Taipei also maintains older, but still quite capable, HAWK anti-aircraft missile batteries. Giving Taiwan an added early warning edge, the United States recently approved the sale of the AN/FPS-115 PAVE PAWS radar with over-the-horizon capabilities, giving Taiwan an intimate view of mainland China’s interior air movement and missile installations. Combined with 146 F-16 aircraft armed with the latest in fire-and-forget AIM-120 air-to-air missiles, 58 Mirage aircraft and 144 upgraded F-5 aircraft, Taiwan will maintain air superiority in the straits for the foreseeable future. Then why does Taiwan want the AEGIS-equipped destroyers and HARM missiles? Put simply, Taipei’s strong military position against China will not last. China has embarked on a wide-ranging military modernization program that will increase its ability to wage a successful battle for the island, should the “breakaway province” declare independence. While China’s modernization objectives will not be reached for some years, the four destroyers Taiwan seeks would not arrive for a number of years after a deal is reached. On average, a new AEGIS destroyer takes about three years to build. The acquisition of these weapons, in Taipei’s view, is sound military judgment. The best defense is a strong offense. Taiwan views its strategic situation as similar to the isolated, “David-and-Goliath” position of Israel. Taiwan doesn’t want to have to rely on the political vagaries of a divided U.S. government for its national survival. Following the Israeli model, Taiwan wants enough military reach to conduct pre-emptive strikes against Chinese mobilization on the mainland if it determines an attack is imminent. Taiwan wants to be free of Washington’s leash. The AEGIS ships and HARMs would help provide that capability. Moreover, President Chen Shui-bian is a leader of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, which came to power in March on a platform calling for international recognition of Taiwan as a sovereign nation. In his view, Taiwan can’t do that unless its military forces can defend against a first strike from China. The only means of preventing that is the ability to strike China’s missiles and marshaled forces before they launch. Aside from the military benefits – which remain questionable – the destroyers would bring hard-sought political clout. One of the primary missions of the AEGIS destroyers would be missile defense. However, in February, an official Pentagon report on theatre missile defense questioned the efficacy of the AEGIS system as a basis for missile defense. According to RAND, approximately 11 to 12 AEGIS destroyers would be needed to adequately counter the current missile threat to Taiwan, concluding the PAC-3 is a much more cost effective – if not particularly mobile – approach. Politics will play a major part in whether such a deal is approved. Most of the AEGIS destroyers are built at Ingalls Shipbuilding in Mississippi, the home state of U.S. Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott. At $1 billion each, the destroyers would represent a lot of happy constituents. Moreover, this year Raytheon moved the primary guidance production for the HARM missile from Tennessee to Arizona, the home state of Sen. John McCain, an influential member of the Armed Services Committee. Priced at $248,000 each, the HARM is designed to penetrate and destroy integrated air defense systems. These missiles are most effective against immobile, land-based radar installations. With strong allies in Congress and the White House next year, Taiwan’s president recognizes the opportunity to gain a certain level of self-determination for Taiwan with an expanded military capability. Taiwanese public relations and lobbying efforts are expected to grow, and Taipei just might succeed in gaining a sympathetic hearing for its arms requests. *COPYRIGHT NOTICE** In accordance with Title 17 U. S. C. Section 107, any copyrighted work in this message is distributed under fair use without profit or payment to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for nonprofit research and educational purposes only.[Ref. http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml ] Want to be on our lists? 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