-Caveat Lector- WJPBR Email News List [EMAIL PROTECTED] Peace at any cost is a Prelude to War! The next leader of North Korea Questions arise over who will succeed Kim Jong Il ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ -- Editor's note: In partnership with Stratfor, the global intelligence company, WorldNetDaily publishes daily updates on international affairs provided by the respected private research and analysis firm. Look for fresh updates each afternoon, Monday through Friday. In addition, WorldNetDaily invites you to consider STRATFOR membership, entitling you to a wealth of international intelligence reports usually available only to top executives, scholars, academic institutions and press agencies. © 2001 WorldNetDaily.com Kim Jong Il is reasserting his right to power in North Korea and positioning his son, Kim Jong Nam, as his eventual successor, according to STRATFOR, the global intelligence company. North Korea's official Rodong Sinmun ran an article April 24 emphasizing comradeship as the decisive factor in solving the succession problem after Kim Il Sung. The commentary reveals the struggle in Pyongyang over Kim Jong Il's ever-changing economic and diplomatic policies. Amid recent calls by North Korean leader Kim Jong Il to abandon old ideas and embrace new thinking, the paper urged North Koreans to become "Kim Jong Il's true comrades who ... wholeheartedly uphold his policies." The commentary reveals the growing tensions among the political and military elite in Pyongyang over Kim Jong Il's proposals for a new thinking for the 21st century, particularly in light of attitude changes in Washington, Tokyo and Seoul. With uncertainty among the North Korean elite and Kim Jong Il approaching his symbolically important 60th birthday next year, Kim is reinforcing his right to power and decision making so he can bring his son Kim Jong Nam in line as his successor. More important, Kim is sending a message to Seoul that while a political crisis is not yet imminent in Pyongyang, the more conservative viewpoint in Pyongyang will once again dominate policy unless there are changes in the international situation regarding North Korea. With the administration change in Washington, North Korea quickly withdrew from much of its economic and political contact with South Korea. In addition, Pyongyang embarked on an increasingly belligerent stream of rhetoric directed at Washington. Amid this apparent reversion to a more belligerent posture, the debate in Pyongyang has intensified over the risks and benefits of Kim Jong Il's soft entente toward Seoul. Among North Korea's political and military elite, there remain differences over the extent of economic reforms. The increasing focus on economic engagement threatens to shift the traditional patterns of power and influence among North Korea's elite, from those who benefit by retaining the old system to the younger generations who stand to gain through more rapid changes. With Kim Jong Il advocating new thinking, older cadres risk being left behind by the younger, more financially savvy elite. Moreover, the military, a longstanding bastion of power in North Korea, fears losing influence to technocrats and economic policymakers. The economic cadre is seeking to increase its own worth and power by forging economic deals with the outside. The military fears this path of advancement will compete with traditional ideas of loyalty to the center, potentially splitting the government. Kim Jong Il, while remaining the highest authority in North Korea, is acutely aware of potential problems and contradictions within his own regime. Despite being the undeniable leader, Kim's power stems from a national devotion to his father, the late President Kim Il Sung and the loyalty and pervasiveness of the North Korean military. Kim's moves toward greater economic cooperation with South Korea and an aggressive foreign policy of global engagement have been matched by a continuation and even enhancement of North Korea's military-first policy. In addition, Kim is challenging his own legitimacy in his calls for "abandon[ing] old ideas" and learning from economic rules and structures in foreign countries; his father developed a Juche ideology of self-reliance. Only a week after Kim's New Year's address calling for new thinking, the Rodong Sinmun ran an article, signed by Kim, emphasizing the importance of maintaining the "independent politics of the DPRK." The article stated, "Only when one maintains the principle of independence in politics can he solve all the problems in the revolution and construction with his own faith in keeping with the interests of his people and the specific conditions of his country. ..." Kim faces a dilemma as he seeks to balance his plans for North Korea's economic strengthening and emerging opposition from within his regime. To accomplish this, Kim has pursued a dual path: The more economic and diplomatic forays made into the global marketplace, the more important strengthening the military and domestic ideology becomes. This balance, however, has raised concerns from the very nations from which Pyongyang seeks to gain economic concessions -- the United States, South Korea and Japan -- where concern is growing that North Korea does not reciprocate concessions granted to the regime. Faced with a deteriorating domestic and international situation, Kim is attempting to pre-empt any serious challenge to his policies. The commentary in the Rodong Sinmun carries a clear message to two distinct audiences, one in Pyongyang and another in Seoul. In Pyongyang, Kim is attempting to legitimize his right as the sole decision maker in North Korea by emphasizing loyalty and his right of succession from his father. The commentary emphasizes the unity and continuity of policies between Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il, and says Kim Jong Il's succession was made possible by the loyal comrades who "are fully ready to share destiny with him." Further reinforcing his right to rule -- and therefore make decisions on the nation's future path -- the succession discussion lays the groundwork for the eventual transition of power to Kim's son, Kim Jong Nam. If Kim is legitimized by his succession from his father, he is even more legitimized by the prospect of continuity in leadership after he is gone. Kim Jong Nam has taken several steps as the heir apparent to the North Korean throne. In 1998, he took a high position in the Ministry of Public Security, North Korea's internal security apparatus. More recently, Kim has become the chairman of the DPRK Computer Committee, in charge of North Korea's fledgling IT industry. According to South Korea's online NK Chosun, which monitors developments in North Korea, Kim Jong Nam joined Kim Jong Il on his January visit to Shanghai, where he "realized the importance" of the IT industry in economic development and growth. Kim Jong Nam has reportedly traveled to several other countries, including Japan and Switzerland, where he studied computers and the IT industry. In making the succession of Kim Jong Nam an accepted and planned event, Kim Jong Il hopes not only to stem potential dissent to his decisions and policies, but also to ensure the continuation and advancement of his plans for North Korea's future economic independence based on rapid technological development. One of the key aspects to come from the April SPA session, in fact, was the emphasis on getting rid of old and outdated technology and achieving technological modernization of the economy. While Kim attempts to reassert and enforce his authority in the North, the commentary is also a warning to the South. The change in Washington's attitude toward Pyongyang is raising nearly as many problems in the North as in the South for the continuation of the recent trend of engagement and reconciliation. Unless Seoul can bring about a change in the international community, particularly in Washington and Tokyo, and bring tangible economic benefits to the North, Pyongyang may revert to a more conservative -- and belligerent -- stance. Despite Kim's attempts to bring North Korea into the international spotlight as a technological marvel in the 21st century, his first concerns are stability and perpetuation of the regime. Ultimately, Kim Jong Il must address the concerns and dissent forming within his own regime. Given the choice between continued economic engagement, while risking internal rifts, and once again pursuing a policy of self-imposed isolation, Kim will clearly choose the latter. *COPYRIGHT NOTICE** In accordance with Title 17 U. S. C. 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