-Caveat Lector-

Mubarak Gears up Armed Forces
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DEBKAfile's military sources report that Egyptian President
Hosni Mubarak has revamped the ground plan for the coming Third Army
summer maneuvers scheduled for the first week of September, after making
over the top level of his armed forces last month.

Both steps were taken to gear up preparations in case of a regional
flare up. Mubarak has abandoned hope of restraining Yasser Arafat's
headlong escalation of violence against Israel ' and is preparing for
any eventuality.

One that the Egyptian president and his strategic advisers are taking
into account is that, at some point in a general conflagration, Israeli
may launch an air attack on Palestinian locations in Sinai, or even the
tunnels leading from the west bank of the Suez Canal to the Sinai side.
Israel has repeatedly complained to Egypt about the Palestinians' use of
the North Sinai towns of El Arish and Egyptian Rafah as rear bases for
the stocking of reserve weapons and fighting strength outside Israel's
reach.

The appointment of Maj.-Gen Sami Hafez Ahmed Anan, an anti-air missile
systems expert, as new air force commander, ties in with this forecast.
So too does the altered blueprint for Egyptian summer maneuvers next
month. The Egyptian Third Army was to have spread out along the west
bank of the Suez Canal and stopped at the entrances to the eight
tunnels. US and Israeli military experts now believe that a small part
of the Third Army will actually go into the tunnels and cross to the
other side, simulating a military deployment in Sinai that will be
executed if Israel decides to bombard the Palestinian rear bases in
Sinai.

Such a crossing would add to regional volatility since it is in direct
contravention of the peace accords Egypt signed with Israel and the US
nearly two decades ago.

Anan replaces Lt.-Gen.Mohammed Shahat who was dismissed without
explanation a month ago and re-assigned to a senior post in Luxor. He is
one of a group of dismissed top officers given appointments far from
Cairo, including the head of the northern command, who had jurisdiction
over an area covering the Nile Delta, Alexandria and Mansour.

DEBKAfile reports from diplomatic sources in Cairo that Mubarak is
urging Egypt's munitions industry to speed up its production of surface
missiles and bring forward to September 2001 the missile series due for
completion next April. He has also released funds to advance the
construction of the new medium range surface missile production line,
modeled on the North Korean No-Dong model.  North Korean engineers and
experts are helping the work along at the plant near Alexandria.

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