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>From LA Times


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http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-000076229sep23.story
Sand Trap
Indiscriminate bombing of Afghanistan would play directly into Osama
bin Laden's hands.
By ARTHUR SCHLESINGER JR.
Arthur Schlesinger Jr.'s most recent book is "A Life in the 20th
Century: Volume I, Innocent Beginnings."
September 23 2001
NEW YORK --


In his powerful address before Congress last Thursday,
President Bush correctly defined the threat of terrorism. And he
correctly characterized the motivation of Osama bin Laden, the
presumed evil genius of terrorism.
President Bush correctly called for American leadership in a global
campaign against terrorism. But he laid down non-negotiable
specifications for his "war" that friendly states will consider ill-
judged and delivered in a tone they may regard as arrogant.
Our allies have had more experience with terrorism than we have had.
They know how difficult it is to eradicate terrorism, even when the
terrorists operate in their own countries. The Basque terrorists live
in a relativel
y confined space in northwestern Spain, but Spanish governments have tried and failed 
for 25 years to stop their outrages. The Corsican terrorists live on an island, but 
they continue to defy all efforts by the French aut
horities to stamp them out. The British could not stop Irish Republican Army bombings 
in England; nor, now that the IRA has abandoned terrorism, can they stop bombings by 
the thugs who style themselves the "Real IRA." The
re is no knock-out blow against terrorism. Does our president really understand what 
he is getting us into? President Bush believes he knows how to deal with terrorists in 
a part of the world in which we have had meager h
istorical experience and small operational knowledge. He should have asked himself 
what Bin Laden would wish us to do next. What American response would best serve the 
villain's purposes?
The answer surely is indiscriminate American air attacks on Afghanistan, killing large 
numbers of innocent people. Bombing is not likely to eliminate Bin Laden and his 
crowd, who have well-prepared hideouts. It would only
 demonstrate once again the impotence of the American superpower. Civilian casualties 
would confirm Bin Laden's thesis of an evil America, push even moderate Muslims toward 
hatred of the United States, produce a new gener
ation of suicidal bombers for Al Qaeda, Bin Laden's terrorist network and incite 
radical Muslims to rise against moderate regimes.
The only thing that would probably please Bin Laden more would be an invasion by 
American ground forces. Afghanistan is famous for its unconquerability. The British 
Empire and the Soviet Union failed in their efforts to d
ominate the country, and they at least knew the rocky terrain and had people who spoke 
the languages. American troops in Afghanistan would be even more baffled and beset 
than they were a third of a century ago in Vietnam.

There is, in addition, the land-mine problem. According to Robert Fisk, Middle Eastern 
correspondent for The Independent in London, Afghanistan contains one-tenth--more than 
10 million--of the world's unexploded land mine
s, laid by the Soviet Red Army in 27 of 29 provinces. Two dozen Afghans are blown up 
every day.
Moreover, by November freezing weather will arrive, and the Pentagon has no hope of 
dispatching troops and winning the war in the six weeks remaining before winter comes 
to Afghanistan. Nor could an invading American army
 count on serious assistance from the internal anti-Taliban resistance, their most 
effective leader, Ahmed Shah Masoud, having been assassinated shortly before the 
assault on America.
But President Bush is not confining his attentions to Afghanistan. He seems to be 
contemplating confronting much of the Arab world. "Either you are with us," he said, 
"or you are with the terrorists. From this day forward
, any nation that continues to harbor or support terrorism will be regarded by the 
United States as a hostile regime." That sounds like the "ending states" and "regime 
change" talk of Paul D. Wolfowitz, the deputy secreta
ry of Defense and the most high-flying of hawks.
Does this mean that, after Afghanistan, we will be taking on Iraq, Iran, Syria, Libya? 
And though the president correctly distinguishes between the moderate and the militant 
Muslim states, this hard line will make life co
nsiderably more difficult for the moderates in Egypt, Jordan and Pakistan.
Little is more vital in the months ahead than retaining the support of moderate Muslim 
states. President Bush has set an admirable example by visiting a mosque and 
condemning attacks on American Muslims. Islam has histori
cally been a tolerant faith. Mohammedans ruled Spain for five centuries, during which 
Spain was culturally more advanced than the rest of Europe. Muslims coexisted 
cheerfully with Christians and Jews. Most moderate Arab s
tates have fragile regimes threatened by radicals within. It is essential that we take 
no drastic actions that would please our own fire-eaters but would drive Arab states 
into the arms of the terrorists.
The Harvard political scientist Samuel P. Huntington wrote a provocative article in 
Foreign Affairs some years ago forecasting a "clash of civilizations" that would 
determine the future. The Bush administration has no gre
ater challenge than disproving Huntington. If we let the international police action 
against terrorism degenerate into a civilizational war of the West versus Islam, we 
are heading toward catastrophe. The last thing we ne
ed is a counter-jihad to respond to the jihad invoked against us by the pals of Bin 
Laden.
Bin Laden has set a trap for the United States. Let us not walk into it. It is hard to 
think of a drastic action taken at once that would not rebound against us. The quest 
for a knock-out blow is an illusion. We must pray
 that the president's tough talk will work. But, as President John F. Kennedy said 
during the Cuban Missile Crisis, it is "one hell of a gamble."
If he wants to win the gamble, our president had better take more care with his 
language. As Calvin Coolidge put it, "One of the first things a president has to learn 
is that every word he says weighs a ton." When Bush sp
oke of wanting to capture Bin Laden "dead or alive," he no doubt pleased his domestic 
audience, but he sent a chill through the chancelleries of our allies already fearful 
of "cowboy diplomacy." When he spoke of organizin
g a "crusade," he angered Middle Easterners who still harbor ancient resentments of 
the Crusaders. His persistent use of the word "war" recalls Harry S. Truman's 
preference in the Korean War for a more appropriate term--"
police action." The terrorists are criminals; we should not bestow on them the dignity 
of a sovereign state. "Police action," not "war," is what we should be talking about 
today.
President Bush is everlastingly right in seeking an international coalition, as his 
father did so effectively in the Persian Gulf War a decade ago. If the campaign 
against terrorism is to succeed, he must continue along a
 resolutely multinational course and put together a united international front. We 
need collective action for several reasons--to confer legitimacy on our response, to 
divert blame from the United States and to gain couns
el from countries that have had far more experience than we have had in dealing with 
the tortuous politics of the Middle East.
In the short run, the international coalition must pool intelligence in order to avert 
new terrorist attacks. Using commercial airplanes as missiles is probably finished; 
biological and chemical terrorism is very likely t
he next step. The coalition working through the United Nations must
also set up global financial controls to stop the covert funding of
terrorist operations and global arms controls to stop the arming of
terrorists. It is in the interest of governments everywhere to join
in the campaign against terrorism. Persons from 80 nations died in
the World Trade Center.
At home, Congress must not abdicate its constitutional role and give
the president a blank check. "In politics," as Samuel Taylor
Coleridge said, "what begins in fear usually ends in folly."
We live in an age of violence and, with all the pressures of
globalization, the United States cannot hope to remain immune. I have
no doubt that most Americans will confront terrorism with resolution
as a horrible hazard of modern life--a hazard that will take a little
time before we with our friends and allies can bring it to an end.


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