-Caveat Lector-

http://english.pravda.ru/main/2001/12/18/23937.html

19:30 2001-12-18

DMITRY LITVINOVICH: NUCLEAR GAMES OF INDIA AND
PAKISTAN, OR WHO OWNS KASHMIR

Another tension of relations between India and
Pakistan can result in the fourth war between the two
countries. The Indian authorities claimed a bit
earlier, they had the information, proving that the
terrorist groups Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Toiba
were involved in the attack on the parliament, which
was carried out on December 13 (these two groups are
based on Kashmir’s territory, which is controlled by
Pakistan).

In this connection the Indian Foreign Ministry sent a
note to Islamabad with a requirement to arrest the
leaders of those groups and freeze the accounts of
those organizations. The relations between Pakistan
and India became more tense after the act of terrorism
in Delhi, when twelve people died as a result.

As the Frontier Post newspaper wrote, India charged
Pakistan of supporting the Muslim militants from the
mentioned extremist groups, which allegedly, like
Delhi asserted, were behind the assault on the Indian
parliament. The Indian authorities demanded the
representative offices of those organizations should
be closed within several days and the leaders of the
Kashmir gunmen – arrested. Islamabad in its turn is
demanding India should prove those organizations are
connected with the incident in Delhi.

President Pervez Musharraf appeared on the national TV
on Saturday and called upon India “to abstain from the
impulsive acts, which could lead to very serious
consequences.” Musharraf also condemned the act of
terrorism in Delhi: “We condemn terrorism and the acts
of terrorism in any part of the world,” – the
Pakistani president said.

There is some information, which said that India
deployed the additional army contingent in Kashmir and
Pakistan ordered the border guards and the regular
army to be all set and alert.

Jammu & Kashmir is a state in India. It is a large
state and was ruled by a Maharaja (Indian King) in the
past. Jammu & Kashmir is made up of many regions but
is called "Jammu & Kashmir" because the two most
populous regions in the state are called Jammu and
Kashmir. This territory is basically populated by the
Muslims – 70% and 30% - the Hindus. The total square
of the territory is about 222 thousand square
kilometers, and one-third of this area is
illegitimately occupied by Pakistan.

There can be three stages of the conflict between
India and Pakistan distinguished:

1947 – 1956
1965 – 1972
1984 – 1995

Nowadays the conflict is taking a new quality, since
both of the countries publicly showed their nuclear
weapon and demonstrated the determination to follow
their plans and interests.

The story of the first conflict is as follows. Great
Britain granted independence to the British India in
August of 1947, having divided it into India and
Pakistan. 560 states got their freedom to join one of
the new countries Pakistan decided to show pressure on
Maharaja, who ruled Jammu and Kashmir with a goal to
make him join his state to Pakistan. The vital
deliveries were stopped for that, the state was
totally isolated from the whole world. But the
Maharaja did not yield. Then Pakistan organized and
sent the hordes of nomadic tribes from the
north-western border territory of Pakistan to plunder
Jammu and Kashmir. The rioters were moving inland
Baramullah – the largest commercial center of the
region. The following days were all filled with
violence, they had no mercy for anyone. Of course that
was not incidental, the absence of the British troops
in the area, populated with the tribes, left those
people without any means to survive. The Pakistani
government feared, lest they should plunder Peshawar
and other large cities of Pakistan. That is why they
were told to move towards Kashmir, guaranteeing them
generous gifts, if they steal and kill. The Pakistani
authorities were hoping to gain the double profit from
that: a possibility to get rid of the tribes and make
Kashmir kneel over.

Pakistan sent its spies to Jammu and Kashmir too so
that they could destroy the bridges and put obstacles
on the way of the Indian army, if the military men
decide to get into the state. The irony of this
situation is that the stealing and violence saved the
state from Pakistan’s occupation. The gangs did not
really want to go further inland the state, until they
plundered everything and this gave time for a popular
political party of Jammu and Kashmir to ask the Indian
authorities for help.

On October 27 the first contingent of the Indian army
entered Jammu and Kashmir. In February of 1948 the UN
Security Council acknowledged Jammu and Kashmir’s
annexation to India. The procedure of the state power
arrangement was over in the state in November of 1956,
when the Constitutional Assembly of the state passed
the Constitution and ratified Jammu and Kashmir’s
membership in India.

It seemed it was all over, but India did not wish to
execute the resolution for some reason and several
years after it even refused to discuss this issue with
Pakistan. After the border war with China in 1962,
India agreed to conduct the negotiations with Pakistan
(under the USA and Great Britain’s pressure). There
were six rounds of negotiations carried out in 1963
between the foreign ministers of India and Pakistan,
but they were over with nothing. In 1965 Pakistan
started the operation Gibraltar, which resulted in a
large scale war between the two countries.

The world community interfered again with a goal to
stop the war. In January of 1966 there was the
Tashkent agreement signed. It did not bring any
positive results and in four years, in November –
December of 1971 another war started between India and
Pakistan. After the military actions were over, the
premiers of the countries signed another agreement in
1972, in which they took on the responsibility to
settle all moot questions, including the Kashmir
problem, by means of the peaceful negotiations.

The local conflict is still going on. All the efforts
of the world community did not bring any good results.
During the opposition between two super-powers, the
USA and the USSR, India was in the interests of the
latter, and surely the Soviet Union was on India's
side in the Indian-Pakistani conflict. After the USSR
collapsed, the political contacts became formal
without the warmth of the previous years; the economic
links faded away totally.

The western countries took a dubious position in
connection with the escalation of the Indian-Pakistani
conflict. London was on India’s side. America had
close contacts with Pakistan. When the cold war was
over, America’s interest in Pakistan dimmed out, but
when the anti-terrorist operation started in
Afghanistan, the USA paid its attention to its ally
from the past again. The USA said it would regulate
the Kashmir problem, taking account of Pakistan’s
interests. It is too early to say, if the American
mission will be a success, taking into consideration
the events in the Middle East.

Dmitry Litvinovich

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