-Caveat Lector-

CAVEAT LECTOR: Though the Debka File has proven to be reliable in the
               past, it is believed to be an outlet for the Mossad.
               All information put out by intelligence sources are put
               out for a reason, and should be takes with a grain of salt.
               --  Nurev


Arafat Plans Declaration of War of Liberation
*********************************************

The day US Middle East envoy Anthony Zinni returned to the
region, DEBKAfile's Palestinian sources quoted Yasser Arafat as
confiding to his intimates that he was drafting his most important
speech in two decades: a declaration of the Palestinian War of
Liberation.

He promised to wait until after retired general Zinni had left, adding:
"There's a limit to our patience!" From Arafat's point of view, US peace
and ceasefire initiatives have all been wasted enterprises - whether
Camp David, Taba, Paris, Cairo, Sharm el-Sheikh, or the Tenet ceasefire
proposal and the Mitchell blueprint - and he would make envoy Zinni
admit failure.

Arafat believes his declaration will fire up the Palestinian and Arab
masses and draw them into a new cycle of hostilities against Israel.

What hurts Arafat the most, aside from the loss of his own
masses' enthusiasm for the struggle, is the desertion of Arab leaders.
None are rushing to rescue him from his state of confinement in Ramallah
and international isolation. Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, Jordanian
King Abdullah and Gulf and Saudi leaders have not even made courtesy
phone calls in sympathy with his plight.

The Israelis do not bother to conceal that their tanks are merely
churning mud as a polite gesture for Zinni rather than seriously
relaxing their closures of Palestinian cities. The 10 yards they pulled
back Thursday are easily covered when he leaves.  Israeli tanks remain
within sight of Arafat's headquarters in Ramallah. Israel promises to
keep them there until the Palestinians hand over the murderers of
cabinet minister Zeevi. Raids into Palestinian territory to round up
suspected terrorists also continues unabated.

But the most painful slap in the face was delivered by Arab League
secretary general Amr Moussa, who as Egyptian foreign minister was the
most fervent champion of Arafat's Intifada. In comments still echoing
round the Arab world, Moussa declared last week that it was time for
Arafat and the Palestinians to realize they had become incidental to
current history and "no longer of interest in the Arab world", which
faces more acute problems. He reflected an Arab consensus when he urged
the Palestinians to give up their battle for a final-status peace treaty
with Israel and settle for the most they could get: a limited interim
accord.

Blows from Washington are coming thick and fast on Arab heads, in the
form of new appointments that signal a sharp about-turn from President
Clinton sympathetic consideration of Arab viewpoints. One such
appointment is that of the hawkish State Department official John Bolton
as secretary of state for arms control and international security
affairs - over the objections of secretary of state Colin Powell. A
strong opponent of regional and international treaties on these issues
and advocate of bilateral US ad hoc agreements with individual
countries, his appointment means that the Bush administration has turned
its back on Egyptian-led Arab demands to make Israel sign the nuclear
non-proliferation treaty and accept nuclear disarmament in the Middle
East.

United States will henceforth deal directly with Israel on such issues,
bypassing regional Arab involvement.

Arab leaders are also disturbed by the loss of another Clinton holdover,
Bruce Reidel, as head of the US National Security Council's Middle East
desk. The Sharon government will not mourn his loss. Reidel was the hand
behind many an Israeli media campaign alleging US pressure on Israeli
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to make concessions to the Palestinians in
the interests of keeping an Arab coalition lined up behind US policies.

Reidel is replaced by Zalmay Khalilzad, an Afghan-American who has had
little to do with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In 1998, Khalilzad
co-signed a letter to Clinton, calling on him to topple Iraqi leader
Saddam Hussein. His emphasis is expected to focus on Afghanistan - not
Palestine.

Moussa knew what he was talking about when he spoke of the Palestinian
issue's weakened impact in the world arena.

Closer to home, Jordan's King Abdullah fired his military intelligence
chief, General Zahar al-Fawaz, in a surprise move that astounded its
object. His replacement is General Tahseen Shrdum, a Circassian of
Chechen descent, who served on the Jordanian teams that drew up Jordan's
peace treaty with Israel. This changeover is a blatant strengthening of
the pro-Israeli element in Jordanian military intelligence - and
reflects the Jordanian monarch's determination to keep up with the
fast-moving Middle East changes reflected in DEBKAfilereporting in
recent weeks.

The new appointments in Washington, Amr Moussa's change of face, King
Abdullah's posture - all fit into the new picture presaged by Sharon
when he declared Yasser Arafat irrelevant. They have all closed ranks,
placing the Palestinian leader under both physical and diplomatic siege.
He can either toe the American line by genuinely rooting out terror and
turning his back on violence or see his cause sinking ever deeper into
irrelevance.

But Arafat being Arafat, he is far more likely to make one more
desperate throw and force Palestinian and Israeli to endure the ultimate
act of terror of what he calls the Palestinian War of Liberation.

===========================================================================


-------- Original Message --------
Subject: Israel Radio:  PA has anti-aircraft,anti-tank missiles and Katyushas
Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2002 01:19:41 -0500
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]

Israel Radio:  PA has anti-aircraft,anti-tank missiles and Katyushas

Aaron Lerner                  Date: 2 January 2002

Israel Radio Arab Affairs Correspondent Avi Yissakharov reported this
morning that Israeli security sources say the Palestinian Authority has
anti-aircraft missiles, anti-tank missiles and Katyushas stored in the Gaza
Strip for use against Israel in a more advanced stage of the conflict.  It
is expected that the Katyushas would be launched to strike nearby Israeli
cities such as Ashkelon.

Israel does not believe that the illegal militias (Arafat's Fatah Tanzim,
Islamic Jihad, etc.) have such equipment. Islamic Jihad has simple rockets
that so far have not been particularly effective.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director
IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-5480092
INTERNET ADDRESS: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
pager  03-610666 subscriber 4811
Website: http://www.imra.org.il

========================================


Mideast truce talks continue; Israelis level new charges

 Copyright © 2002 AP Online


By IBRAHIM HAZBOUN, Associated Press

JERUSALEM (January 5, 2002 7:09 a.m. EST) - U.S. envoy Anthony
Zinni pressed on with his truce mission Saturday amid
new Israeli charges that the Palestinian Authority is engaged
in terrorism and has tried to smuggle missiles and other
weapons into the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Israel said Friday that commandos intercepted the shipment of
Iranian-made weapons on a Palestinian Authority-owned
vessel in the Red Sea, hundreds of miles from Israel's shores.
The captain and some of the crew were members of the
Palestinian naval police, Israel's army chief said.

Palestinian officials vehemently denied the allegations and said
Israel was trying to sabotage the mission by U.S. envoy
Anthony Zinni. Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat agreed to conduct
an investigation and asked U.S. officials to join it, his aides
said.

Zinni asked Arafat about the weapons shipment when they Friday in
the West Bank town of Ramallah, State Department
spokesman Richard Boucher said. Zinni "expressed our strong
condemnation of any attempt to escalate the conflict in the
region by militant groups or others," he said.

On Saturday, Zinni was to hold meetings with Palestinian
Parliament Speaker Ahmed Qureia, Palestinian negotiator Saeb
Erekat and Palestinian security offic ials.

Qureia has been holding talks with Israeli Foreign Minister
Shimon Peres about the framework for a peace agreement.

Under the framework plan, Israel would recognize a Palestinian
state before negotiations would proceed on two issues that led
to the collapse of talks last year - the status of Jerusalem
and the fate of four million Palestinians who are refugees or their
descendants.

However, the Peres-Qureia talks were given little chance of success.
The two remain far apart on the dimensions of the
Palestinian state to be recognized by Israel and Peres does not
have the full backing of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

Zinni returned to the region on Thursday for a four-day trip
after his previous mission was aborted in December amid a surge
of violence. The envoy said he was more upbeat this time.

"I am optimistic, I am hopeful and I feel that we have the
conditions that are right to make progress this time," Zinni said
Friday after his meeting with Arafat. He said he would make
many more trips to the region.

Zinni is trying to nudge both sides toward a formal truce
outlined last year by CIA chief George Tenet. Under the plan, Israel
would withdraw troops to positions they held before the outbreak
of fighting in September 2000 and Palestinian security forces
would make an all-out effort to prevent attacks on Israelis
by Palestinian militants.

With a truce in place, the two sides would carry out of a series
of mutual gestures proposed last year by an international
commission headed by former U.S. Sen. George Mitchell. Israel
would freeze all settlement activity in the West Bank and
Gaza, while the Palestinians would dismantle militant groups.

Commenting on the interception of the weapons shipment, Peres
said Friday that Arafat and the Palestinians must make a
choice.

"They have to make a strategic decision whether they support
terrorism or they are against it," he said in a statement.

The foreign minister said he would ask the international
community to declare Iran a supporter of terrorism.

Sharon, meanwhile, told Zinni he would only carry out the truce
deal once there has been a week of complete calm.

The Palestinians accuse Sharon of trying to wriggle out of
Israel's commitments in order to avoid a settlement freeze that
could threaten the stability of his center-right coalition government.

There has been a sharp drop in violence since Arafat
renewed his commitment to a cease-fire Dec. 16, though there have
been sporadic incidents, including shootings. No Israeli
has been killed in a Palestinian attack in three weeks, the longest
stretch since the fighting began in September 2000.

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