-Caveat Lector-

maybe acing-president bush could get back the $43 million dollars he gave
the taliban, a scant 4 months before sep 11, for being our partners in the
war on drugs.
-- --------- ---- ------- ----- ----------- ---------------------------
Complete liberty of contradicting our opinion is the very condition which
justifies us in assuming its truth.


John Stuart Mill




NEURONAUTIC INSTITUTE on-line: http://home.earthlink.net/~thew

> From: Bill Richer <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> Reply-To: Conspiracy Theory Research List <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 16:14:17 EST
> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Subject: [CTRL] Afghans not likely to curb opium
>
> -Caveat Lector-
>
> http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=26374
>
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> Peace at any cost is a Prelude to War!
>
>
> STRATFOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
> Afghans not likely to curb opium
> Despite promise meant to placate international donors
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> --
>
>
> Editor's note: In partnership with Stratfor, the global intelligence company,
> WorldNetDaily publishes daily updates on international affairs provided by
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> © 2002 WorldNetDaily.com
>
> Afghan leaders have promised to curb the country's opium trade, once banned
> under the Taliban. The measure is less about stopping the drug flow than it
> is about placating international donors and undercutting rival warlords. The
> lone bright spot for the country's farmers is that a loophole allowing
> small-scale cultivation will bring them a measure of relief.
>
> Echoing an earlier decision by Afghan interim leader Hamid Karzai, local
> provincial authorities promised Jan. 31 that government tractor brigades will
> uproot opium poppies now growing in southwestern Afghanistan under a
> "forceful" eradication campaign, according to the Associated Press. The
> campaign comes amid news reports that poppy farming is flourishing in
> Afghanistan after being banned by the Taliban in 2000.
>
> It is extremely unlikely that local leaders intend to make a serious effort
> to cut Afghanistan's lucrative opium production. Rather, the announcement is
> meant to placate international donors and will only be selectively enforced.
> Ultimately the ban will contribute to further infighting in the country, as
> leaders allied with the interim government ­ but in some cases still
> connected to the opium trade themselves ­ use the cover of "drug enforcement"
> to destroy their rivals' fields.
>
> Economics and history argue that the opium ban will be selectively enforced,
> if it is enforced at all. Afghanistan supplies about 70 percent of the
> multi-billion dollar global opium trade. International drug cartels won't
> easily allow their supply chain to slip away, and poppy cultivation is simply
> far too profitable for many Afghans to ignore.
>
> Numbers vary, but the United Nations estimates that Afghanistan's opium
> production brought about $250 million into the country in 1999. This is far
> less than the roughly $900 million a year the country is scheduled to receive
> in foreign-aid pledges, but it also comes with far fewer strings attached and
> is not distributed through Afghanistan's central government. And drug money
> is guaranteed income while aid pledges can be rescinded.
>
> Control over opium production hasn't been confined to any specific ethnic
> group or leader. Notable poppy growers from the past include Ahmed Shah
> Masood ­ the former Northern Alliance commander who was assassinated just
> before the Sept. 11 attacks ­ and current Pushtun strongman Hazrat Ali.
>
> The new interim government itself is not free of drug-connected officials
> either. Recently appointed Kandahar governor Gul Agha, whose spokesman made
> the eradication announcement, has been linked to the opium trade, according
> to London's The Observer. His home province of Kandahar was one of the
> largest sources of poppies in Afghanistan during his earlier rule as governor
> in the early 1990s.
>
> Agha also reportedly has ties to Ayub Afridi, a convicted drug lord who
> served a short jail sentence in the United States. Afridi was recently
> released from a Pakistani jail and moved back to Afghanistan to work with
> anti-Taliban forces, according to the London Times.
>
> Paying lip service to an opium ban, however, will result in generous
> dividends for local leaders. It will placate the international community for
> a little while and allow aid dollars to keep flowing into the country. The
> United Nations and other organizations will have a difficult time
> field-checking the ban, as much of the countryside is too dangerous to send
> out scores of inspectors. And concealing poppy plants among ordinary crops
> will make satellite detection more difficult.
>
> Allies of the Afghan government can also use the ban to undercut rival
> warlords by destroying their opium fields with the international community's
> blessing. Some particularly crafty warlords may even be able to squeeze some
> drug-eradication funds out of the United Nations or other international
> agencies. The violence and retaliation that will result will discredit and
> possibly destabilize any central government in Kabul.
>
> The one bright spot for Afghanistan's civilian population is that the interim
> government appears willing to allow small farmers to grow opium legally. This
> is vital relief for some of the country's rural population, which has seen
> most of its irrigation systems and large-scale farms destroyed by years of
> warfare and drought.
>
> The new law allows that "medicinal amounts" of opium may be freely sold in
> quantities under two pounds, the Associated Press reported. An Afghan farmer
> working a small piece of land can only produce a few pounds of opium at a
> time, and a few acres of opium can bring up to five to eight times the price
> of traditional crops like wheat.
>
> The opium law is a political tool that will be used for personal gain and
> internecine rivalries. But it might relieve some of Afghanistan's human
> suffering.
>
>
>
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