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http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=26396

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Peace at any cost is a Prelude to War!

TAIWAN TINDERBOX
CIA: China still threat to U.S., Taipei
Tenet says Beijing honing skills to dominate island neighbor

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By Jon Dougherty
© 2002 WorldNetDaily.com


Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet has told Congress that China
remains a threat to the United States and Taiwan, and that the Asian giant
has worked hard over the past year to become a more powerful regional player.

"Over the past year, Beijing's military training exercises have taken on an
increasingly real-world focus, emphasizing rigorous practice in operational
capabilities and improving the military's actual ability to use force," Tenet
told the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Wednesday.

Noting that Taiwan was still the focus of China's military buildup and
modernization, Tenet said his agency believes that while the Sept. 11 attacks
"changed the context of China's approach" to Washington, it didn't change
Beijing's overall goal of achieving military superiority over its smaller
neighbor.

China also seeks to build enough military power to at least be able to
prevent the U.S. from successfully defending Taiwan in the event of a future
conflict. China has repeatedly said it would reunify with Taiwan by force if
necessary.


Chinese SLBM – sub-launched ballistic missile – development continues, as
does work on a new Chinese-made class of nuclear submarines.

The buildup "is aimed not only at Taiwan but also at increasing the risk to
the United States itself in any future Taiwan contingency," Tenet said.
"China also continues to upgrade and expand the conventional short-range
ballistic missile force it has arrayed against Taiwan."

Tenet told the panel that recent moderate statements from Chinese leaders
belie Beijing's "central" theme of reunification with Taiwan.

"Cross-strait relations remain at a stalemate, but there are competing trend
lines behind that," Tenet said of Chinese Vice Premier Qian Qichen's tempered
statement last week regarding integrated economics between Beijing and
Taipei.

"Chinese leaders seemed somewhat complacent last year that the growing
economic integration across the Taiwan Strait was boosting Beijing's
long-term leverage," he said.

"The results of Taiwan's legislative elections in December, however,
strengthened President Chen Shui-bian's hand domestically," Tenet added.
"Although Beijing's latest policy statement inviting members of Chen's party
to visit the mainland was designed as a conciliatory gesture, Beijing might
resume a more confrontational stance if it suspects him of using his
electoral mandate to move toward independence."

In separate testimony before the Senate committee, Defense Intelligence
Agency chief Vice Adm. Thomas Wilson said China's combat capability would
increase over the next decade.


Chinese-built DF-31 ICBMs with enough range – 5,000 miles – to strike the
western U.S. Beijing is also developing a DF-41 model, with an anticipated
range of 12,000 miles.


"By 2005-2010, China's conventional force modernization will provide an
increasingly credible military threat for short-duration attacks against
Taiwan," said Wilson, adding that despite the modernization efforts, he is
less concerned about a China-Taiwan confrontation than last year.

Meanwhile, Taiwanese officials say its military and domestic policy agendas
have taken a back seat to other U.S. interests since the Sept. 11 attacks, as
Washington focuses attention on its war against terror.

"Congressmen said they also sympathize with and support our position, but
they explained to us that the State Department is not so forceful, not
because they are against us, but because there are too many priorities above
us," said Peng Ming-min, leader of a Taiwanese delegation at the National
Prayer Breakfast Thursday.

Other countries besides the U.S. and Taiwan may be increasingly concerned
about China's military modernization.

According to Stratfor.com, a private intelligence firm and WND content
partner, India is also beefing up its own military capabilities as a direct
result of perceived Chinese threats.


Indian Navy aircraft carrier INS Viraat. New Delhi is seeking to purchase a
Kiev-class carrier from Russia, as well as begin its own carrier
construction.

"India is capitalizing on growing U.S. interest in South Asia's security
environment to push for rapid expansion of its military capabilities,"
Stratfor, in a report published Wednesday, said.

"India's military buildup will threaten China, its main competitor for power
in this region," as New Delhi seeks to modernize its nuclear naval
capabilities to form the third leg of a "triad" that also consists of
air-launched and land-based nuclear weapons.

"In the short run, India's acquisitions will certainly influence Pakistani
military calculations. But in the longer term, it is China that will be
forced to confront this naval challenge," said the report. "China's moves to
counter India could raise tensions across the region, as well as with the
United States."




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