For decades Americans
have been warned that nearly every intervention will be another
Vietnam --but this time, U.S. troops may in fact be trapped in
another Vietnam!
By Stewart
Nusbaumer;)
While President Bush harps on invading Iraq, a more
serious and immediate threat looms. Maybe the Administration is
aware of this growing danger and is using Iraq to distract the
public; maybe the Administration is so obsessed with Saddam Hussein
it is utterly clueless. It's impossible to decipher what this
Administration thinks, if it thinks. Regardless, the threat is real
and it is growing. I’m talking about a reorganized and reinvigorated
al Qaeda and Taliban.
While Americans focus on the national
debate, while the media discusses whether Saddam is a threat to
America or not a threat, while the press reports whether we should
invade or not invade, it's in Afghanistan that a trap is being set.
The comeback plan for al Qaeda has two parts. Stage one is
the regrouping and reorganization of the network after the shock and
disruption of the initial U.S. military invasion of Afghanistan.
Full of blind arrogance, the leaders of al Qaeda and the Taliban
never immagined the U.S. military would invade their land and
conduct infantry operations, they never believed Americans would
flush them out of their cave hideouts. While their relentless
propaganda claimed the unbelieving Americans are cowards that would
never fight in Afghanistan, they were completely unprepared for the
U.S. assault, forcing most to flee in panic.
This
reorganization is now mostly complete and phase two is being
implemented: guerrilla warfare with assassinations and terror
bombings. In the last several months, two high government officials
have been killed, as well as numerous lower officials. Today there
was an assassination attempt, another assassination attempt, on the
life of President Hamid Karzai, and a car bombing in Kabul that
killed 15 Afghans. Meanwhile, the number of attacks on U.S. military
personnel has increased significantly. Local warlords are becoming
friendier with al Qaeda/Taliban forces as the central government in
Kabul remains impotent and vulnerable. As we approach the
anniversary of 9/11, a bloody war of attrition is building in
Afghanistan, a guerrilla war that radical Muslims promise they will
win. And they may.
The goal of the guerrillas in Afghanistan
is not the capture of land, not the decapitation of the central
government; the goal is to kill the infidel Americans and defeat
America. After this is accomplished, then Aftghanistan will again be
their country.
All of this should sound familar, familar,
actually, twice. Familar from Southwest Asia and familar from
Southeast Asia.
What is happening in Afghanistan today is
what happened to the Soviet Union in Afghanistan in the 1980s. It
took a year for the Afghan opposition to the Soviets to coalesce and
reorganize, for the Mujahideen to slowly spread its influence across
the country. Initialing agreements with local warlords, the rebel’s
strength multiplied and their attacks increased. At first the
primary target was the Soviets' Afghan allies, the softest targets;
later it was the Soviet Army. By diminishing the power of the Afghan
military, Soviet troops were forced to leave their fortified
compounds, which made them vulnerable to Mujahideen ambushes. It was
this slow, consistent bleeding of the Soviet Army that finally made
Moscow say, "enough!"
Radical Muslims throughout the Middle
East concluded that the Mujahideen not only defeated the Soviets in
Afghanistan, not only repulsed the invading infidels and drove a
superpower out of Afghanistan, the victory was also a major
contribution to, if not the major reason for, the Soviet Union
collapse. They are convinced that they were big time agents of
history. Present day extremists, then, are not intimidated by the
U.S. military presence in Afghanistan. Recouping from the initial
shock of the U.S. assault, the word “superpower” again does not mean
super power to these hardened fighters and their sons. Superpower
means an opportunity for the faithful to upset the evil world order.
It's the same strategy, a different superpower, and a new
generation of similar guerrilla fighters seeking to remake history
-- to the Afghan radicals, today is the continuation of yesterday's
battle. There is no difference between the Soviet Union and the
United States.
After reorganizing their forces and preparing
for a guerrilla war against the U.S., al Qaeda is now giving
priority to attacking Americans in Afghanistan rather than in
America. Of course it will attack the infidels in their home
country, it will kill Americans wherever it can to make its
statement. But the main focus and thrust of the al Qaeda campaign is
to kill Americans where it has its greatest strength: Afghanistan.
Where it has an extensive communications network, a developed
logistics system, plenty of intelligence sources, and of course
intimate familiarity with the terrain and people. It is in
Afghanistan that al Qaeda can kill the most Americans. So it
believes.
The Soviet campaign, then, is being revised by the
Ameican military. U.S. troops, nearly 6,000 of them, have been,
according to al Qaeda, sucked into a Middle Eastern quagmire. We do
know an ineffective and increasingly unpopular Afghan government is
unable to guarantee security -- even the President of Afghanistan is
guarded by Americans! -- forcing U.S. troops to extend their
operations, which will make them easier targets for al Qaeda and
Taliban ambushes in a terrain that the guerillas know well and
increasingly control.
This was all written in the 1980s when
the Mujahideen defeated the Soviets. As the book on America's defeat
in Vietnam was written two decades prior with the French defeat in
Vietnam. In fact, it’s essentially the same book of guerrilla
warfare. But the question is, is anyone reading? In their obsession
with Saddam Hussein, a man they have not proven is a genuine threat
to America, is the Bush Administration aware of the deteriorating
situation in Iraq for U.S. soldiers?
For months there have
been rumors, often attributed to foreign intelligence sources,
sometimes multiple sources, that U.S. forces are taking more
casualties than are officially reported. Some of these reports claim
the U.S. troops are under constant attack and as many as 500
soldiers have been killed in Afghanistan. The Pentagon insists
significantly less than 100 have been killed; their credibility,
however, is less than rock solid. There is no doubt, however, that
the attacks are increasing and so are U.S. casualties. There is no
doubt that al Quada is starting a guerrilla war. Yet, is the
Pentagon telling the President, or is the President uninterested?
All President Bush seems focused on is Saddam Hussein, who slipped
out of his father's grasp over a decade ago.
It is this war
of attrition, which al Qaeda and the Taliban see lasting for a
decade, maybe longer -- why not, people imbued with the culture of
war have nothing else to do, they have certainly proved they can't
run a country -- that they promise will be America’s second Vietnam.
And the stage is set. U.S. troops are surrounded by armed guerrillas
in an increasingly hostile environment in a far off foreign land of
rugged terrain with a local government that is weak and ineffective
and under physical threat.
Talk about a Vietnam flashback!
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