-Caveat Lector-

washingtonpost.com
Often Outspoken, Now Out of the Picture
O'Neill Found That Candid Opinions Earned Him Fans, Friction at Treasury

By Paul Blustein
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, December 7, 2002; Page A08


It never seemed to matter much to Paul H. O'Neill that his job description
included winning over Wall Street, schmoozing members of Congress and
engaging in financial diplomacy abroad. To the tart-tongued Treasury
secretary, those duties often came second to telling the truth as he saw
it.

He derided traders of stocks, bonds and currencies as "people who sit in
front of flickering green screens" whose jobs he could learn "in about a
couple of weeks." He riled congressional Republicans by dismissing as "show
business" a bill passed by the House Ways and Means Committee. He even
caused the Brazilian government to lodge a formal protest when he expressed
worries on television that loans to Latin American governments would
disappear into Swiss bank accounts.

And when critics questioned whether O'Neill was temperamentally suited to
his post, he made it clear that he wouldn't alter his penchant for voicing
unvarnished opinions, which his boss, President Bush, appeared to
appreciate.

"One of the great things about where I am now: If people don't like what
I'm doing, I don't give a damn," O'Neill, a multimillionaire former
aluminum company CEO, told reporters during his tour of Africa with the
rock star Bono in May. "I could be off sailing around on a yacht or driving
around the country. I'm here because I think I can make a difference, and
the president has said to me on more than one occasion: The reason you're
here is because you think different than other people. As long as he gives
me that leash, I'm going to use it."

Now the leash has been jerked, with yesterday's news that O'Neill had
tendered his resignation at the behest of the White House. The move, though
unexpected, came after yet another bout of candor by O'Neill that seemed
sure to cause headaches for an administration worried about the economy
turning sluggish over the next couple of years. Distancing himself from
colleagues who favor boosting the economy with a new round of tax cuts, the
Treasury chief declared that the economy doesn't need much stimulus because
it will grow just fine without one.

"He made it clear he didn't think a large, broad-based stimulus package was
necessary, and it's kind of tough to go rah-rah-rah about a new economic
package if your leading spokesman at the Treasury isn't for it," said David
Solin, a partner at Foreign Exchange Analytics in Essex, Conn.

Perhaps even more important, Solin added, is that O'Neill's habit of
speaking off the cuff has undermined his credibility -- with the financial
markets in particular -- so "there is a problem in terms of their being
able to clearly and concisely get their message across." Making the same
point more acidly, Robert Boorstin, a top Treasury aide during the Clinton
administration, joked: "The guy has an aluminum ear when it comes to
politics."

It would be grossly unfair to judge O'Neill's legacy solely in terms of his
gaffes, according to many of the Treasury secretary's critics and
supporters. Among his most significant accomplishments was to throw a
spotlight on the ineffectiveness of much of the aid doled out by the World
Bank and other development agencies.

Although many aid experts felt O'Neill went overboard when he asserted that
"there is precious little to show" for the billions of dollars showered on
poor countries over the past 50 years, his insistence on demanding better,
more measurable results has become widely accepted and has forced changes
both at the World Bank and in U.S. aid programs.

Reflecting O'Neill's success at focusing attention on the plight of the
world's poor, the aid agency Oxfam America struck a sorrowful note in a
statement on O'Neill's departure, saying that his "presence on the Bush
economic team brought these issues into the debate in a way they otherwise
would not have been included."

Often, when O'Neill blurted out a statement that later had to be clarified
or smoothed over, "he was saying things that people knew were true but
wouldn't dare say," said Kristin Forbes, a Massachusetts Institute of
Technology professor who recently left Treasury.

For example, few disputed the validity of his concern about aid to Latin
countries going to waste. Likewise, many experts agreed with the substance
of remarks O'Neill made to a German newspaper early in his tenure that "we
don't follow . . . a policy of a strong dollar," because his point was that
a strong dollar would inevitably result from good U.S. economic
performance.

But he was widely faulted for failing to recognize the market turbulence
such comments would spark and for eroding the effectiveness of the
multibillion-dollar loans that the International Monetary Fund marshaled
for Brazil.

"As a high official in Washington, you need to recognize your words have
impact and to modulate your statements accordingly," said Michael Mussa, a
former Reagan administration official and chief IMF economist.

O'Neill's scorn for such strictures was part and parcel of the
hard-charging persona he manifested upon coming to Washington after his
enormously successful tenure heading Alcoa Inc.

He cast caution to the winds on the emotion-laden day that the New York
Stock Exchange reopened following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks,
suggesting (wrongly) that the stock market would set new records in 12 to
18 months -- the sort of forecast most of his predecessors assiduously
avoided for fear of risking their credibility.

Even when he was trying to be diplomatic, O'Neill still sometimes managed
to ruffle feathers. After a leftist candidate was elected president of
Brazil in October, O'Neill told an audience the markets would scrutinize
the new leader's statements "to assure them he is not a crazy person."

© 2002 The Washington Post Company

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