On Mon, 2007-01-22 at 08:00 -0600, Ruven E Brooks wrote: [ . . . ]
> If you've got no historical data, a much better bet is to get a group > of people to give estimates. As well as code writers, [ . . . ] It is very noticeable that Physicists (possibly also Chemists, Biologists and Mathematicians but I have no data :-) generally have formal courses on estimation -- I know I did as a student, and I tutored on such courses at a number of other universities. It never ceases to amaze me that groups of 4 or 5 people can, based on knowledge of the world and various formulae from physics generally come up with very good estimates for quite bizarre numbers -- for example the rate of growth of a blade of grass in molecules per mega-fortnight. Part of the accuracy is clearly attributable to it being a group activity, though it does rely on good knowlege. What the whole activity does do is give people the confidence to "guess" with confidence -- as opposed to putting random numbers into a project management tool and expecting it to give the right answer. Clearly estimation of phenomena in the world is more deterministic that estimation of the cognitive and inspirational activity that is software development but I wonder if courses on estimation would help software budgeting and planning. -- Russel. ==================================================== Dr Russel Winder +44 20 7585 2200 41 Buckmaster Road +44 7770 465 077 London SW11 1EN, UK [EMAIL PROTECTED]
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