--- [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
> A key aspect of programming in practice is the
> reliable estimation of size, time and effort. It
> seems like most people that are good at estimating
> do so by partitioning the problem into smaller
> pieces that can be handled more easily. [...]
This would be the rational, logical way of approaching
it but in my experience (as one of the people who do
it "wholistically") it doesn't work in practice.
Projects requiring a reliable estimation tend to be
those I do for other people. Partioning the problem in
such cases is hard 'cause often the problem is not
well understood yet (if ever!). Can one draw
partioning lines on a fuzzy cloud of a problem? The
answer is almost always "no", so I end up giving a
"wholistic" estimate based on previous experience on
similar projects...often it is a gross understimation
because the politics of bidding on a contract say the
guy who delivers in shorter time is "better".
I've also noticed that the way I make estimates varies
as a result of things that are not related to the
problem at all, making the method of estimation purely
ad-hoc. E.g if a classy young lady drives up to my
office in a porsche, you can rest assured the estimate
she gets won't be the same as any other (either it's
too short 'cause one wants to impress, or its too long
because, well, geeks need some love too, no?). By
being who she is, she has changed the value of the
estimate even before I knew what it was going to be.
Heisenberg would be proud and at once disturbed!
Missed milestones and postponed deadlines are the norm
in this industry which suggests that this is a
widespread problem. I too would love to see any
research on estimation methods and their comparative
accuracy...though I doubt such research could take
into account should-be-irrelevant-but-still-relevant
issues like classy young ladies in a porsche!
Cheers,
Eric M.
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